Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[I love to travel]

Europe is currently looking like a minimum 40% supply crunch.

When though will it really impact long haul flights?

 

[Quickstatus]

Fuel stocks held as of 28/04/26

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26
#307 for 14/4/26
#351 for 21/4/26


The change in fuel stocks since 10/3/26:
Petrol increase by 223 ML
Jet Fuel reduce by 18 ML
Diesel increase by 287 ML

1 ML Jet fuel = 800 Tonnes (metric) 780 Tons (imperial)

737-800 SYD-MEL maybe uses 4.5 Tonnes??
A380 SIN -LHR maybe 160 Tonnes??

 

[transpactraveller]

They've been lobbying for that for some time so not surprising.

This is mostly about slots at airports like LHR, it will allow BA to cancel their "slot sitting" flights to save fuel (usually called "slot hoarding" in Australia, but known as "slot sitting" in the UK).

BA are notorious for it, often flying mostly empty planes in and out of Heathrow to prevent other airlines from taking their coveted Heathrow slots. Or using 2 smaller aircraft on 2 similarly timed departures, instead of 1 larger one, to use more slots.

Some of them are quite obvious, for example near identical departures to the same destination that are scheduled 5 minutes apart.

 

[Saab34]

Fuel supply seems good, Australia has plenty of cash, with major suppliers having the right connections, throw in the government underwriting contracts, it seems like we won’t be having issues getting supply. Many other nations don’t have this luxury. Money to be made by the big firms by selling to Australia.

However it seems that we are about to enter another price spike wave. Shocking few months ahead for airline accountants! Will be interesting to see if some carriers can continue to hold on, certainly a few Asian low costs have questionable finances, remains to be seen if they can pull through.

 

[elanshin]

Fuel supply seems good, Australia has plenty of cash, with major suppliers having the right connections, throw in the government underwriting contracts, it seems like we won’t be having issues getting supply. Many other nations don’t have this luxury. Money to be made by the big firms by selling to Australia.

However it seems that we are about to enter another price spike wave. Shocking few months ahead for airline accountants! Will be interesting to see if some carriers can continue to hold on, certainly a few Asian low costs have questionable finances, remains to be seen if they can pull through.

Realisitcally, our media cycle has greatly blown out Australia's fuel situation. Will it cost more? probably. But we won't run out like many doom news headlines have been promoting. We'll see many other places running dry before we're seriously running low - purely because we can barter very strongly with our own resources that have also shot up in value (which we seem to be doing).


That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

 

[Saab34]

That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

I think some of the smaller operators in Europe might struggle.

Locally, some of these low costs in Asia have always had questionable profitability, are currently cutting back considerably and don’t hedge. Good luck trying to get finance.

If Bonza somewhat still was alive it probably would have collapsed regardless.

 

[AuSammy]

Realisitcally, our media cycle has greatly blown out Australia's fuel situation. Will it cost more? probably. But we won't run out like many doom news headlines have been promoting. We'll see many other places running dry before we're seriously running low - purely because we can barter very strongly with our own resources that have also shot up in value (which we seem to be doing).


That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

Spirit Airlines been under a cloud since late 2024. The war was only one of many nails in the coffin

 

[Saab34]

Essentially the same as Virgin. It was going to enter administration at some point, just needed that nudge to push it over.

 

[LionKing]

So it seems air fuel price has stabilised but at a high level. So fares are not going down in the short term.