Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Pushka]

Glad you are confident. I am especially worried about Air Malta what shape they will be in June. Ars you flying them?

Oh I’m not confident. Somehow we will get there. I just refuse to cancel.

Ah yep. To Malta. Lufthansa back. What could possibly go wrong……. Might check a back up. Your concerns based on?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Glad you are confident. I am especially worried about Air Malta what shape they will be in June. Ars you flying them?

If air malta is not flying there are plenty other carriers that can get you to or from the island.

 

[I love to travel]

Oh I’m not confident. Somehow we will get there.

Ah yep. To Malta. Lufthansa back. What could possibly go wrong……. Might check a back up. Your concerns based on?

Their already shakey financial position. They won't hesitate to cancel flights.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Their already shakey financial position. They won't hesitate to cancel flights.

Air Malta went bankrupt in 2024. the new Malta Airlines is wholly government owned. Might they cancel flights? Yes, but Malta is part of the EU, so you get automatic re-routing in the event a flight is cancelled, including other airlines.

 

[Saab34]

Well this will now drag on for months, Vance departed the meetings without any deal.

I’d just write off the remainder of this year. Come back next year.

 

[transpactraveller]

I'd concur, it's looking increasingly unlikely that there will be a peace deal anytime soon. The US continues to send military assets to the region and Iran is still limiting the passage of ships in the Strait.

The US is reporting they've sent 2 warships into the Strait to clear sea mines placed by Iran, and of course Iran denies this took place.

Unfortunately I think we have a long way to go, and the odds of oil/fuel supply returning to normal are decreasing.

 

[Pushka]

Well this will now drag on for months, Vance departed the meetings without any deal.

I’d just write off the remainder of this year. Come back next year.

I'm getting too old to simply throw away another year after the Covid drought.

 

[LondonAussie]

BA have just trimmed their European flights in May, only giving “operational requirements” as the reason. These appeared to be proactive consolidations where they have multiple flights per day on a route. Flying with empty seats is perhaps less economical that it used to be.

 

[clifford]

I'm booked to fly to Europe mid-May returning early June,

QF to CGK, then TK to AMS and AMS-LHR on BA.

Stopover LON then LHR-ATH on BA.

10 days in Greece (ATH and RHO),

ATH-LHR-KUL on BA, followed by KUL-SIN-SYD on TR.

Mostly business / premium economy. Cancellable for modest fees. I won't cancel anything until just before my accommodation becomes locked in, a day or two before my outward flight. I've had to plan it that way because of the POTUS effect.

If this all falls apart because of the USA, I won't book any further international travel for the forseeable future. Have car, will travel, and it would be nice to have a week or two with my son in Kiama.

 

[LionKing]

Could be a painful summer for European airlines / travellers

EU airline industry fears fuel shortages if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

The trade body for European airports said if the Strait of Hormuz did not open in the next three weeks, there could be shortages.

www.bbc.com

I hope budget airlines in Europe will be first to cut.
They don't have an extesive network outside Europe, they don't have Business Class, they don't belong to three major alliances, and I don't think some of them can survive.
With Jetfuel prices above US$200 per barrel, I just don't see a lot of budget airline routes can survive with £16.99 tickets.

28 days of Kerosene stock is quite dangerous, thankfully we are after Easter and into May which is usually a quiet month. Perhaps Qantas and Virgin should start cancelling low patronage flights to save fuel.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I hope budget airlines in Europe will be first to cut.
They don't have an extesive network outside Europe, they don't have Business Class, they don't belong to three major alliances, and I don't think some of them can survive.
With Jetfuel prices above US$200 per barrel, I just don't see a lot of budget airline routes can survive with £16.99 tickets.



28 days of Kerosene stock is quite dangerous, thankfully we are after Easter and into May which is usually a quiet month. Perhaps Qantas and Virgin should start cancelling low patronage flights to save fuel.

Ryanair and British airways made more of less the same profit. Why would Ryanair stop flying but BA continues?

In many cases BA is cheaper than easyjet and Ryanair when flying around Europe once you include bags.

 

[Saab34]

I hope budget airlines in Europe will be first to cut.
They don't have an extesive network outside Europe, they don't have Business Class, they don't belong to three major alliances, and I don't think some of them can survive.
With Jetfuel prices above US$200 per barrel, I just don't see a lot of budget airline routes can survive with £16.99 tickets.

Ryanair is probably the best placed in Europe, 80% hedged until March 2027. Easyjet and Wizz are about 60% for the second half. Many others are well hedged.

The issue for Europe looks like it might be shortages.

The LCCs that are likely in for some pain are those in Asia. AirAsia doesn’t hedge at all, the boss was in an interview this week and said they looked at it in Jan, but didn’t have the finance available at the time. Some of our Asian neighbours have very little cash on hand and large order books outstanding. Bit hard to get finance at the moment, and equally hard trying to wet lease away some widebodies.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ryanair is probably the best placed in Europe, 80% hedged until March 2027. Easyjet and Wizz are about 60% for the second half. Many others are well hedged.

The issue for Europe looks like it might be shortages.

The LCCs that are likely in for some pain are those in Asia. AirAsia doesn’t hedge at all, the boss was in an interview this week and said they looked at it in Jan, but didn’t have the finance available at the time. Some of our Asian neighbours have very little cash on hand and large order books outstanding. Bit hard to get finance at the moment, and equally hard trying to wet lease away some widebodies.

I thought i read somewhere that even if you hedge, oil companies can declare force majeure and the hedging doesn’t have to be honoured?