Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[elanshin]

I imagine that there is diplomacy being deployed, however we're probably not going to get interim updates before anything is finalised.

 

[markis10]

I don’t think diplomacy will have much to do with things. As I mentioned upthread China is not the biggest Aviation fuels provider and its likely cost was the factor in supply. Given one of our two refiners is the major aviation supplier to most airports in Australia and their biggest shareholder is the largest oil trader in the world, in will be in the interests of that shareholder to ensure supply continues!

 

[Pushka]

I don’t think diplomacy will have much to do with things. As I mentioned upthread China is not the biggest Aviation fuels provider and its likely cost was the factor in supply. Given one of our two refiners is the major aviation supplier to most airports in Australia and their biggest shareholder is the largest oil trader in the world, in will be in the interests of that shareholder to ensure supply continues!

So how do you think this will play out in the next few weeks? Months….in terms of flight cancellations etc. And impact on world supplies for overseas airlines. Crystal ball?

 

[markis10]

I don’t think we will see much impact, to a certain extent what’s happening with aviation fuel is what’s happening at the bowser, fomo. Reality will hit and things will calm down, unless another force majere event happens. I am in China and there are interesting opportunistic rumblings to the north

 

[Quickstatus]

Any more updates about the aviation fuel issue?

The Guvment is publishing Minimim Stockholding Obligations weekly using data a week in arrears

Yesterdays report 17/3/26 is for MSO 10/3/26
Next report due 24/3/26 for MSO 17/3/26

Note on 13/3.26 the MSO for diesel lowered to 2200M and gasoline 700M

 

[33kft]

Basically, we’ll keep supplying the fuels that your country needs as long as you keep supplying us the fuels we need.

I'm not sure why people would assume this isn't implied. Right now every nation is counting their cards.

This would be Australia's calculus as it would be China's, Singapore's, and so on. Not one of these nations is self sufficient and all have significant dependencies on other countries exports, whilst simultaneously exporting things that are the dependencies of other nations who may or may not be the same nations that depend on them.

Geopolitics is tricky at the best of times.

 

[33kft]

Perhaps a better address to the nation might be:

Fellow Australians

For years now we have been better positioned than most nations on earth to benefit from modern technologies which would allow us to reduce our dependency on legacy fuel sources

Instead, we weaponised it into some political culture war

My advice to you would be to start preparing your alternate fuel sources now

Best of luck for winter

 

[DC3]

Crystal ball?

 

[ahpratt]

I'm supposed to go to Iceland on April 12. Can easily dodge the missiles, but biggest risk is getting stuck in Europe due to fuel shortages.

 

[DC3]

I'm supposed to go to Iceland on April 12. Can easily dodge the missiles, but biggest risk is getting stuck in Europe due to fuel shortages.

Getting stuck in Europe? I can only wish.

 

[gethsemene]

Surely Europe is an unlikely place to get stuck, they have plenty of non middle eastern options (even if some are politically unpalatable) plus the suez for limited amounts from the ME.

 

[drron]

S audi does have an oil pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the red sea. The port is a fair way north of Yemen and the Houthis though Iran has threatened to attack Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
The pipeline can carry 7 million barrels of oil per day though before this conflict was carrying ~ 3 million barrels per day. Normally 15 million barrels per day go through Hormuz.
Some of the current proposals for pipelines to the Mediterranean surly must go ahead after this war.