General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[vetrade]

Question is, ideally, what should we have done?

For starters, a DMP should clearly set out areas of responsibility and the people to oversee them. In Victoria we had 800 deaths and the disastrous hotel quarantine program. At the subsequent inquiry into that, the premier, responsible ministers, senior health bureaucrats and emergency services heads all denied any knowledge of who made the disastrous decisions or even who had what areas of responsibility.

The closest we got to some facts was that some un-named middle rank public servant apparently awarded a $30M contract for running the Melbourne quarantine to a Sydney company simply because it fitted with the Labor government's stipulation that a certain percentage of contracts had to be awarded to indigenous businesses. No tender was advertised and the "successful" company only had a workforce of about 5% of the required number of people, who, as it turned out, weren't even trained for the jobs they were to do. No surprises that that company has since gone broke.

In years to come Victoria's handling of the pandemic should be the subject of case study for MBA students into everything you should not do in a pandemic

 

[tgh]

Of course, everyone is interpreting my words to suit their perspective.
My point remains that there is likely a conceptual situation where lockdowns would be needed ( as a last resort if that makes some feel better)

 

[vetrade]

On the contrary, I think the very mindset that lockdowns of the general population might be appropriate in certain circumstances, needs to be dispelled and consigned to the rubbish bin. Lockdowns don't have any place in pandemic management. There is undoubted merit in isolating vulnerable people in a pandemic but that is an entirely different scenario to locking down everyone, shutting down transport and businesses, closing schools etc.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I'd agree that extreme measures are no longer relevant, given it's become endemic. Lockdowns were but one of these, and there were short ones and long ones. I think the lockouts caused a lot more grief than short term lockdowns did.

Couldn't readily find any deaths by capita data, so I pulled together some. WA I'd treat as an exception as it's early days there yet. ACT is interesting. There are the restrictions and there is compliance with the restrictions and suspect they were highly compliant in ACT.

Cheers skip

	Deaths @ 7 Mar 22​	Pop'n 2021​	Deaths per 100,000​
VIC	2596​	6,649,159​	39.04​
NSW	1946​	8,189,266​	23.76​
SA	213​	1,773,243​	12.01​
NT	29​	246,338​	11.77​
QLD	592​	5,221,170​	11.34​
ACT	34​	432,266​	7.87​
TAS	26​	541,479​	4.80​
WA	12​	2,681,633​	0.45​

 

[drron]

Of course, everyone is interpreting my words to suit their perspective.
My point remains that there is likely a conceptual situation where lockdowns would be needed ( as a last resort if that makes some feel better)

I doubt it.
The saving in lives was in the order of 0.2%.
The big problem with that is because of lockdowns and delays in diagnosis of things like cancer,heart disease or strokes amongst others will lead to a far higher extra mortality so lockdowns had a worse health outcome as well as a worse economic outcome. A very definite lose,lose scenario.

There are reports of at least 50000 extra cancer deaths in the UK alone.

The Pandemic's Hidden Death Toll - Independent Nurse

As the UK enters its third lockdown, the COVID-19 pandemic is at the forefront of the minds of the UK. However, recent data shows that we should be especially concerned by the knock-on effects of the pandemic on treatments for conditions such as cancer

www.independentnurse.co.uk

And here is Dr. John Campbell with one of his videos on the subject and how few death certificates have only Covid on the certificate.

Now there is a place for some quarantine or in the modern parlence Stay In place Orders which are said to have savecd 2.9% extra mortality. That is isolating those that are positive properly. I don't call that a lockdown but some might. Putting everyone who arrived in Australia into quarantine was an overreach and ended up in the process being a farce leading to the inevitable breakdown and covid getting in.

 

[tgh]

I doubt it.

So do I .
Like everyone else however, you are defining the possible outcomes from recent experience.
We could have a real doozy sometime that is killing so fast that folks would lock themselves up from fear alone..
Never say never….

 

[drron]

I doubt it.

So do I .
Like everyone else however, you are defining the possible outcomes from recent experience.
We could have a real doozy sometime that is killing so fast that folks would lock themselves up from fear alone..
Never say never….

I still doubt it. Your theory is almost impossible. Bugs are not that stupid. Only us humans are.

 

[andye]

I doubt it.
The saving in lives was in the order of 0.2%.
The big problem with that is because of lockdowns and delays in diagnosis of things like cancer,heart disease or strokes amongst others will lead to a far higher extra mortality so lockdowns had a worse health outcome as well as a worse economic outcome. A very definite lose,lose scenario.

There are reports of at least 50000 extra cancer deaths in the UK alone.

The Pandemic's Hidden Death Toll - Independent Nurse

As the UK enters its third lockdown, the COVID-19 pandemic is at the forefront of the minds of the UK. However, recent data shows that we should be especially concerned by the knock-on effects of the pandemic on treatments for conditions such as cancer

www.independentnurse.co.uk

And here is Dr. John Campbell with one of his videos on the subject and how few death certificates have only Covid on the certificate.

Now there is a place for some quarantine or in the modern parlence Stay In place Orders which are said to have savecd 2.9% extra mortality. That is isolating those that are positive properly. I don't call that a lockdown but some might. Putting everyone who arrived in Australia into quarantine was an overreach and ended up in the process being a farce leading to the inevitable breakdown and covid getting in.

I have no love of lockdowns but I'm assuming most of the research was done in areas where a near-zero Covid outcome was impossible.
This was reasonably achieved in Australia and New Zealand despite the initial incursions and it became possible to encounter an epidemic of Covid in a reasonably vaccinated population.
I think many lives were saved as a result of shortish periods of lockdown and the disruption to surgery and cancer services was not enormous in practice. Victorians may have experienced things differently as their lockdowns were longer.

 

[drron]

I have no love of lockdowns but I'm assuming most of the research was done in areas where a near-zero Covid outcome was impossible.
This was reasonably achieved in Australia and New Zealand despite the initial incursions and it became possible to encounter an epidemic of Covid in a reasonably vaccinated population.
I think many lives were saved as a result of shortish periods of lockdown and the disruption to surgery and cancer services was not enormous in practice. Victorians may have experienced things differently as their lockdowns were longer.

Also Tasmania where we had one of the Public hospitals and it's cancer centre shut down. In northern Tasmania i certainly saw a lot of unneccessary deaths due to the disruptions. It was not just the shutdown of services but patients couldn't get to their GP. Zoom is not great on a proper physical examination.
People were also too scared to go out.Many were afraid of hospitals. So new cancer diagnoses dropped. A late diagnosis leads to a worse outcome

Plus do look at the video.
For England + Wales there were in 2020 plus until the end of September 2021 there were 17371 covid deaths by the death certificate where there was no other cause of death on that certificate. As of 30/9/21 the official covid death toll was 137,133.
The CDC has released their figures and only on 6% of death certificates was there no other cause of death.

And just to emphasize the point in the beginning of Feb this year over 99% of people had significant Covid antibodies present. Way more than the number that had been vaccinated. As well those 8-11 years had high antibody levels in 80%. Yet in Wales they didn't begin vaccinating those ages until 15/2/22. Presumably most had had covid.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection survey (antibodies data): 31 January to 4 February 2022 | GOV.WALES

Analysis of the proportion of people in Wales testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies for 31 January to 4 February 2022.

gov.wales

 

[drron]

If you do happen to get Covid and you are on a statin drug for your cholesterol don't stop it. If you do the disease is likely to be worse.

https://dgalerts.docguide.com/ncov-home/article/study-examines-effect-of-discontinuation-of-atorvastatin-therapy-in-patients-hospitalised-for-covid-19

 

[drron]

Some neurological problems due to covid.
First Peripheral Neuropathy may be associated with long Covid. Though not totally accepted.

https://dgalerts.docguide.com/ncov-home/article/study-evaluates-peripheral-neuropathy-in-patients-with-long-covid.

Then an interesting study from the UK where there is a study going on -UK Biobank -into diseases and genetics. As part of the study there were following many with serial brain scans. They looked at the difference in the latest scans between those who had had covid and those who had not. It turned out there was a small but definite loss of brain tissue in those that had had covid along with a significant decrease in cognitive function.

https://dgalerts.docguide.com/ncov-home/article/study-suggests-sars-cov-2-infection-associated-with-changes-in-brain-structure

 

[Quickstatus]

This basically sums up the relationships between covid and socioeconomic status
USA - credit You Yang Gu

These were the variables which had the best correlation:
1)Gini inequality - basically income inequality (rather than income). With a large R2 of 0.354
2)population density
3) nursing homes per capita

 

[drron]

Covid zero policy definitely not working in China.

Omicron-hit Chinese province bans travel in rare measure against COVID

A northeastern Chinese province on Monday imposed a rare travel ban on its population as the region's Omicron outbreak helped drive China's tally of new local COVID-19 cases so far this year higher than any recorded in 2021.

www.reuters.com

And this is scary -

 

[Pushka]

Covid zero policy definitely not working in China.

Omicron-hit Chinese province bans travel in rare measure against COVID

A northeastern Chinese province on Monday imposed a rare travel ban on its population as the region's Omicron outbreak helped drive China's tally of new local COVID-19 cases so far this year higher than any recorded in 2021.

www.reuters.com

And this is scary -
View attachment 273409

I read just now that Hong Kong has the highest death rate in the world and the vaccination rates of especially older people are appalling and using Sinovac. Is it a case of people taking too much note that the zero policy would provide enough protection?

 

[Quickstatus]

I read just now that Hong Kong has the highest death rate in the world and the vaccination rates of especially older people are appalling and using Sinovac

The older folk have a strong mistrust of the government and medical advice. And don't forget the older folk lived in Hong Kong pre Sino handover - so they would have a different perspective on the merits of sino vs british control.

 

[Pushka]

The older folk have a strong mistrust of the government and medical advice. And don't forget the older folk lived in Hong Kong pre Sino handover - so they would have a different perspective on the merits of sino vs british control.

That certainly makes sense but it’s coming back to bite awfully hard. Whatever Govt action happens in the future will only make that worse.

 

[Quickstatus]

The older folk

Also note the high density living - especially among the poor and the general observation that Covid disproportionately people of low socioeconomic status and advanced age.

 

[Pushka]

Our new SA Premier (Labor) is being sworn in tomorrow. At 10am he is having a meeting with the Police Connissioner and CHO to demand the information why SA is not adhering to the National Plan re masks, close contact definition being 15 minutes and isolation. Wow. Breathe of fresh air indeed.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Our new SA Premier (Labor) is being sworn in tomorrow. At 10am he is having a meeting with the Police Connidiiober and CHO to demand the information why SA is not adhering to the National Plan re masks, close contact definition being 15 minutes and isolation. Wow. Breathe of fresh air indeed.

What? You have a new government? The Murdock brisbane Courier Mail has 4 stories anti labor (by Bolt, Credlin and others) but essentially no mention of the SA election. Hilarious.

 

[drron]

The new SA Premier should do a good job.