General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

RAM

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Too much 'smirk & mirrors' in the Oxford report (prefer an independent one but call me cynical given the tens of $$ billions involved, yes they are only covering their 'costs' [it is all in the definition of costs]).

Even the CMO has broken down the risk by age group.

The weighted avg risk of CV death over the entire population is made up by the over 75s contributing around 90% of that figure. And that was for the battery hen like nature of being kept in their nursing homes with unprepared staff lacking (for the most part) sufficent PPE +/or training, or holding a staff party in disregard for the rules.

The risk of death for someone under 75 is a fraction of that of those over 75. It is even lower for those under 65, etc etc.

When 'whole of population' annual figures are used against figures for 3 weeks worth of vaccinations - credibility is severely lacking and it reeks more of 'marketing' not rigour.

Too often the attitude of doctors & nurses servicing Aged Care facilities is, 'They're old, this is normal,' even when it is not & the doctor forgot he was supposed to be having fortnightly blood tests done due to the toxicity of one drug prescribed.

Case in point why is Risperidone/Risperdal one of the most frequently prescribed drug when its major risks include increasing blood pressure, increasing incidence of strokes etc etc? The subject of criminal prosecution overseas yet still approved & used widely in Australia.

Johnson & Johnson to Pay More Than $2.2 Billion to Resolve ...

https://www.justice.gov › ... › News

4 Nov 2013 — The resolution includes criminal fines and forfeiture for violations of the ... introduced the antipsychotic drug Risperdal into interstate commerce

When I challenged one particular Doctor (complete with the printout of the safety notice) his response was 'Everybody prescribes it.' Which is unfortunately true. Just how many of the daily deaths are solely due to the continued use of Risperdal (also known as happy pills by staff as it makes the staff happy & the resident like a mound of jelly) = quiet nights for staff as nobody calling out for assistance.

So, as we keep being told there are 50 deaths a day (typically) in Aged Care facilities, I wonder how much effort has been going into determining if vaccine related? Too date the failure of the two private sector companies delegated to by the Federal Govt (due to have finished 3 weeks ago but only around 40% of residents and <10% of staff received 1st dose) could well be a better outcome.
 

Gremlin

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A solid plan to roll it out doesn't mean a lot if people in too large numbers refuse to take the vaccine. There needs to be incentives there that people value so that they take it up when it's their turn.
Reading AFF, you’d be forgiven for thinking the underlying reason Australia hasn’t had millions of us inoculated is either apathy, lack of motivation or fear from the general population. But when I talk to my clients at the various state Departments of Health around the country who are charged with getting vaccines in arms, all I hear is that they can’t get supply fast enough or consistently enough.

All the incentives in the world can’t get people vaccinated if there’s no vaccines to give them.

Yesterday I posted that I perceive Australia’s greatest risk of catastrophic outbreak is from spread from PNG through Torres Strait to Cairns and beyond. Today it was announced that vaccinations in the Torres Strait have been suspended until mid-May due to supply issues.

Our greatest risk of catastrophic outbreak. Thousands willing to be vaccinated in the Torres Strait. No supply for the next month.
 
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Reading AFF, you’d be forgiven for thinking the underlying reason Australia hasn’t had millions of us inoculated is either apathy, lack of motivation or fear from the general population. But when I talk to my clients at the various state Departments of Health around the country who are charged with getting vaccines in arms, all I hear is that they can’t get supply fast enough or consistently enough.

All the incentives in the world can’t get people vaccinated if there’s no vaccines to give them.

Yesterday I posted that I perceive Australia’s greatest risk of catastrophic outbreak is from spread from PNG through Torres Strait to Cairns and beyond. Today it was announced that vaccinations in the Torres Strait have been suspended until mid-May due to supply issues.

Our greatest risk of catastrophic outbreak. Thousands willing to be vaccinated in the Torres Strait. No supply for the next month.

But isn't that because they have decided that Torres Strait should only get Pfizer? There is plenty of AZ if they want to give them that.
 

Must...Fly!

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I was pondering the vaccine situation on my daily walk today - specifically the safety situation. I have been 100% comfortable to have the AZ vaccination up until last week, when I started wavering a tad due to the blood clot developments, and being under 30.

As I was waiting at the lights to cross the road at various busy intersections a comparison dawned on me. Tomorrow I will be getting a cab to and from a wedding. So, entering a motor vehicle with someone driving who I am placing implicit trust in to manage a relatively non-controlled environment to safely get me from A to B.

The reports from the US and UK are that it could be somewhere between 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 250,000 to suffer a vaccine-linked CVST. Keep in mind this isn't a death rate - but the incidence of the CVST. Reports indicate around a 75% survival rate if you are diagnosed with CVST.

Now, compare this to your chances of being fatally injured in a motor vehicle accident in Australia over the past 20 years. From the data referred to as the source on Wiki, a fatality is defined as;

Any apparently unpremeditated event reported to police, or other relevant authority, and resulting in death, injury or property damage attributable to the movement of a road vehicle on a public road.

1618671880925.png

So, for me, it is back to normal service. I'll get in a taxi at least twice tomorrow, and be at a significantly greater risk of death on the way to and from a wedding, than I will be from contracting a vaccine induced or related side effect. Give me either approved vaccine, now...and let me get on with my life.

It's quite late so hopefully I haven't stuffed my numbers up...!
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Sure but it might be better to take into account the number of times a person get into or near a vehicle v number of times you take a vaccine jab should be taken into account to get some level of parity. Also some motor vehicle incidents have multiple fatalities in the one incident while a vaccine jab will presumably only have one fatality. The number of motor vehicle interactions is an enormous number in comparison the the number of COVID vaccine jabs
 

Must...Fly!

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Sure but it might be better to take into account the number of times a person get into or near a vehicle v number of times you take a vaccine jab should be taken into account to get some level of parity. Also some motor vehicle incidents have multiple fatalities in the one incident while a vaccine jab will presumably only have one fatality. The number of motor vehicle interactions is an enormous number in comparison the the number of COVID vaccine jabs
That is true. I do not drive often and always take public transport - usually trains - so my risk is far lower than the population wide rate would suggest. But the fact is whenever you are exposed to an area with a moving motor vehicle, there is some risk involved. I am sure quite a few of the statistics would involve innocent pedestrians, cyclists, etc just going about their day and following the rules. And other motorists.

But I guess the point is, you don't really think about it consciously. And you certainly don't respond irrationally to the level of risk - because it is a necessary thing to do. It seems odd that the COVID vaccine should be any different.
 

Gremlin

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But isn't that because they have decided that Torres Strait should only get Pfizer? There is plenty of AZ if they want to give them that.
Yes. Large slabs of the Torres Strait population are 1a. 1a’s should be getting Pfizer as a priority as agreed by all levels of government.

Or are you suggesting that we should be applying a lower standard of health care to Indigenous Australians in comparison to others?
 
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Pushka

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Yes. Large slabs of the Torres Strait population are 1a. 1a’s should be getting Pfizer as a priority as agreed by all levels of government.

Or are you suggesting that we should be applying a lower standard of health care to Indigenous Australians in comparison to others?
I do know that 1A's in South Australia and not indigenous people were receiving AZ. So pretty sure it was never agreed by any state that all 1A would be only be receiving Pfizer. Because of its complicated logistics it was also decided in SA, at the get go that people, including indigenous people in 1A, living in remote areas would likewise be receiving AZ.

So don't know why the jump to such conclusions.

Conclusions that AZ is somehow inferior when we are fighting a pandemic and return to some kind of normalcy is very frustrating.
 
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mviy

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It sounds like in light of recent events, that since a significant chunk of the Torres Strait population will now need to get Pfizer, it has been decided that logistically it would make sense to give Pfizer to the entire population there.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Sure but it might be better to take into account the number of times a person get into or near a vehicle v number of times you take a vaccine jab should be taken into account to get some level of parity. Also some motor vehicle incidents have multiple fatalities in the one incident while a vaccine jab will presumably only have one fatality. The number of motor vehicle interactions is an enormous number in comparison the the number of COVID vaccine jabs

Just on that, figures are of course rubbery, but ballpark:


A single trip will have say a 0.00000657534 % risk of dying to someone (ie assuming that the Australian population averages 3 trips per day. Some make many trips, and other rarely do)

A single CV vaccination 0.0001 % or about 15 times greater. But we make repeated vehicle trips.


coughulatively by driving about 1200 Australians are killed per year.

If we vaccinate everyone then at 1 in a million deaths that will be 26 people dead in a year. Effect of boosters unknown....

So a year's worth of driving will result in about 50 times the deaths.

The other factor with vehicle usage is that people get injured, and many more than those that die.


Then again if there was no vehicle usage, society would be operating at a pretty basic level and so mortality rate and life expectancy would be much higher than with vehicle usage.

So again it is all balance. We drive, some die. But if we did not drive at all more would die. Just as with vaccination.
 
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jakeseven7

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It sounds like in light of recent events, that since a significant chunk of the Torres Strait population will now need to get Pfizer, it has been decided that logistically it would make sense to give Pfizer to the entire population there.

But Pfizer also has been linked to clots....
 
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Yes. Large slabs of the Torres Strait population are 1a. 1a’s should be getting Pfizer as a priority as agreed by all levels of government.

Or are you suggesting that we should be applying a lower standard of health care to Indigenous Australians in comparison to others?

wow that’s quite a jump to conclusion you have made there based on a simple comment that AZ is available but Pfizer is being reserved for a particular location.
 
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DC3

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Yes. Large slabs of the Torres Strait population are 1a. 1a’s should be getting Pfizer as a priority as agreed by all levels of government ...
No-one gets to choose which vax they receive. We get what is available at the time/place.

Edit: Now subject to some recent restrictions on the AZ, pending further review
 

DC3

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... There is already a capable facility planned for 2026. These facilities don’t grow on trees. Even if suitable existing buildings could be found and money was no object you’d still be looking at at least sometime in 2022 and quite probably later, and by then vaccine supply issues would most likely be resolved anyway ...


So, now it may be possible within about 12 months?
 

mviy

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So, now it may be possible within about 12 months?
And by then international supply issues should hopefully be resolved. However, if booster shots are needed and if the mRNA vaccines are the only ones the public has confidence in then this will be extremely useful.
 

jjonnboy

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Rightly or wrongly, the view at the moment is that Pfizer is safer than the AZ jab.
As so often happens, perception becomes reality. I have my second AZ on 17 June and I can't wait in preparedness of where this goes.
 

lovetravellingoz

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So, now it may be possible within about 12 months?


It was always possible in a 12 month period to begin manufacture. What was not possible was to after a recent decision to favour mRNA (as well as other vaccines like Novavax) for under 50's to do so immediately and to only expect supply for say a one year program..

One has to be able to build a facility (minimum of 6 months) as well as to be able to source the special bags required as well as the lipids which are currently in world wide short supply. So even if you had a mRNA plant built now it would probably be sitting idle.

Plus it has it be financially viable. So the Government needs to dangle the right contracts (carrots) as any company willing to undertake building such a facility will want to make a profit over the long-term. This will mean long-term supply contracts.

Plus to be manufactured here the companies that developed the mRNA vaccines have to be willing to either do so, or to license another company to do so. So far Pfizer has only permitted one French company to temporarily manufacture the Pfizer vaccine in France.

With Pfizer now indicating that the two dose vaccine is now a 3 dose vaccine plus an annual dose afterwards there is now a greater current need (ie within 12 month) and importantly ongoing market as well for annual vaccinations. So what they such a plant would for would be more to supply the ongoing annual vaccinations, and presumably not just for the Australian market but for other markets.


2026

However the 2026 timeline for the new Seqirus Vaccine Plant in Melbourne is not for mRNA (Though they could add it on) , but for: a number of other products including the for the Flu Vaccines a transition from egg based to cell-based technology. This was not urgent and so the total facility is being built over a number of years (ie will be completed n 2026).

MELBOURNE - Seqirus, the world’s second largest influenza vaccine provider, today announced it plans to construct a new world-class biotech manufacturing facility in Australia to supply influenza vaccines to Australia and the rest of the world.
The state-of-the-art facility will use innovative cell-based technology to produce influenza vaccines for use in both influenza pandemics and seasonal vaccination programs – and will be the only cell-based influenza vaccine manufacturing facility in the Southern Hemisphere.
The facility will also manufacture Seqirus’ proprietary adjuvant MF59® - a substance added to some vaccines to improve immune response and to reduce the amount of antigen needed for each vaccine, enabling more doses to be manufactured more rapidly.
In addition, the facility will produce unique products important to Australia’s public health needs – including antivenom for Australian snakes, spiders and marine creatures, and the world’s only human vaccine for Q-Fever.

 
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mviy

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Interestingly the Guardian reports that the government tasked consultants with coming up with a business case for producing mRNA vaccines locally back in December. Also there are a few local mRNA vaccine candidates that can't even get to phase 1 trials because they can't currently be made locally in sufficient scale.

There would be some obvious advantages to using a locally developed vaccine should it prove to be effective if annual booster shots are going to be needed. imo Pfizer etc. would only be likely to grant a licence to produce in Australia so long as they aren't going to be likely to be able to produce sufficient supply themselves in their own facilities.

 

DC3

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I’m looking forward to receiving my 2nd AZ jab at the end of May, and assume that there will be annual COVID vax needed from here on.
 

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