Egyptair Flight MS804 Disappeared from Radar [New conclusion]

[amaroo]

I am flying ex-Paris next month, and don't see any reason to change based on anything published to date. By the same token, Egypt Air is on my no-fly list, and sadly Egypt is not likely to be somewhere I visit any time soon, if ever. Perhaps if I was younger...

We want to take the kids to Egypt ... however, it's just not worth the risk

Must be devastating for the families that depend on the tourism industry...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-terrorism-barely-soul-visiting-Pyramids.html

 

[JohnK]

I still have my thoughts on what happened to this plane, but as I'm not an expert, and the black boxes have not been recovered, my general comment is " I won't fly ex Paris, nor ex Egypt, nor on Egyptian Air"

Sabotage? My thoughts exactly although my list is a little bigger than your list.

I don't believe increased security is going to achieve anything.

 

[marki]

Sabotage? My thoughts exactly although my list is a little bigger than your list.

I don't believe increased security is going to achieve anything.

Interesting thought on your statement increased security having diminishing returns !! For the money

 

[JohnK]

Interesting thought on your statement increased security having diminishing returns !! For the money

We've been increasing security sine 9/11 yet 15 years later they are still bringing down aircraft.

 

[marki]

there is got to be another way without the costs involved. Safer for everyone. People are an imagenative lot and whats the use of the front end being so very careful when the back end the very people employed to be at the airport searching bags are themselves implicated nefarious activities Here I shake my head in disbelief.

We've been increasing security sine 9/11 yet 15 years later they are still bringing down aircraft.

 

[BAM1748]

We've been increasing security sine 9/11 yet 15 years later they are still bringing down aircraft.

But perhaps consider what might have been had we not been increasing security over this time.


Matt

 

[marki]

Unquantifiable factor that is

But perhaps consider what might have been had we not been increasing security over this time.


Matt

 

[Quickstatus]

there is got to be another way without the costs involved. Safer for everyone. People are an imagenative lot and whats the use of the front end being so very careful when the back end the very people employed to be at the airport searching bags are themselves implicated nefarious activities Here I shake my head in disbelief.

One problem is the current commercial model of outsourcing/subcontracting in the drive to cut costs and maximise profits.

Here is a Huffington post link about EL-AL security. While I don't often agree with Huffington writers, I find this makes sense at least on some level.

What Israeli Airport Security Can Teach the World


About 15 years I had cause to visit someone at the hospital at HMAS Penguin in Mosman. Now this is a Australian naval base for those not in the know. Obviously compared to an American naval base this would be classed as a minor "asset".

However at the time I noticed on the fences surrounding the base, there were large signs saying that the area is protected by "======= security" A contracted private security firm was protecting an Australian Naval base. So I drove to the checkpoint, told same contractor I wanted to visit someone at the hospital. I was given directions and off I went. Was my ID checked?.... Anyone???

Paying more is not necessarily going to increase quality, but I think contracting out security is not the way either.

Trivia:
The reason that a bag is xrayed again after discovery of a banned item which is them removed is because humans tend to miss a second banned item in a bag with two banned items once they discover the first.

 

[JohnK]

But perhaps consider what might have been had we not been increasing security over this time.

One can only imagine but one would think much much worse.

Very difficult to fight someone who is prepared to die for their cause. You can increase passenger security all you like but someone can still infiltrate airport security as we saw with the Russian aircraft mid-air explosion in Egypt in November.

My parents think I travel too much. They are probably right. I don't need to be a hero. One can easily avoid airlines and/or countries that are likely to pose the greatest risk. This is an individual assessment.

 

[BAM1748]

One can only imagine but one would think much much worse.

Very difficult to fight someone who is prepared to die for their cause. You can increase passenger security all you like but someone can still infiltrate airport security as we saw with the Russian aircraft mid-air explosion in Egypt in November.

My parents think I travel too much. They are probably right. I don't need to be a hero. One can easily avoid airlines and/or countries that are likely to pose the greatest risk. This is an individual assessment.

Indeed, you cannot reason with a terrorist.

 

[jb747]

Everyone seems to have decided it was terrorism. What information have I missed? The more I see, the less likely it seems to me....

 

[Conrad_S]

There seems to be a pattern of human interaction being a primary factor in crashes and incidents over the last couple of years. Even the saves seem to be heavily related to the safety 2 approach. It's probably a easy cognitive bias to suspect it again. Equipment failure is out of fashion.

 

[jb747]

Even if it fits quite well with the ACARs maintenance messages!

 

[OATEK]

Everyone seems to have decided it was terrorism. What information have I missed? The more I see, the less likely it seems to me....

To me, just the fact that the event occurred so late in the flight seems to suggest that it isn't terrorism. Long after cruise altitude reached, and close to landing time would be cutting it fine if a device was used, or if someone onboard activated something. But of course that is not based on the ACARS data, which it seems could just as easily point to a non-terrorism related incident.

 

[jb747]

To me, just the fact that the event occurred so late in the flight seems to suggest that it isn't terrorism. Long after cruise altitude reached, and close to landing time would be cutting it fine if a device was used, or if someone onboard activated something. But of course that is not based on the ACARS data, which it seems could just as easily point to a non-terrorism related incident.

The ACARS messages point to smoke in the avionics bay. The toilet smoke is a likely follow on. The window messages point at a possible culprit.

What action would follow? Most likely isolating half of the electrical system, with the attendant loss of every system on it. But, with the possible application of the emergency electrical configuration, the loss of just about everything, with the exception of one set of flight displays, and reversion to direct law.

At that point it doesn't take much to go with either an AF447 or Air Asia LOC scenario.

It's as much a guess as everything else, but at least it fits what is known. In any case, I don't go with any form of external activity.

 

[JohnM]

The ACARS messages point to smoke in the avionics bay. The toilet smoke is a likely follow on. The window messages point at a possible culprit.

What action would follow? Most likely isolating half of the electrical system, with the attendant loss of every system on it. But, with the possible application of the emergency electrical configuration, the loss of just about everything, with the exception of one set of flight displays, and reversion to direct law.

At that point it doesn't take much to go with either an AF447 or Air Asia LOC scenario.

It's as much a guess as everything else, but at least it fits what is known. In any case, I don't go with any form of external activity.

Can you elaborate on the reasons for there being sensors on the windows and what they are there to detect? To the uninitiated it seems to be removed from things that actually make the aircraft fly.

 

[jb747]

Can you elaborate on the reasons for there being sensors on the windows and what they are there to detect? To the uninitiated it seems to be removed from things that actually make the aircraft fly.

There are a couple of sensors related to the windows. The side windows can open, so there will be some related to the locking mechanism. Secondly they are heated, so there will be a couple related to that. Taking off with an unlocked window is a no no, but not particularly dangerous. If flight the pressurisation will make it virtually impossible to open. There's been a long history of window heating issues with all aircraft types.

 

[Quickstatus]

The ACARS messages point to smoke in the avionics bay. The toilet smoke is a likely follow on. The window messages point at a possible culprit.

What action would follow? Most likely isolating half of the electrical system, with the attendant loss of every system on it. But, with the possible application of the emergency electrical configuration, the loss of just about everything, with the exception of one set of flight displays, and reversion to direct law.

At that point it doesn't take much to go with either an AF447 or Air Asia LOC scenario.

It's as much a guess as everything else, but at least it fits what is known. In any case, I don't go with any form of external activity.

JB747,

Flight control laws : pilot inputs are fed into the flight control computers and modified/limited within certain parameters/ envelopes (laws)?. So Direct law would mean that pilot inputs are unmodified at all levels of input from zero to the extreme?

Normal, alternate, direct law and possibly different levels of alternate?
Do FBW aircraft have a mechanical backup in case of failure of electronic flight control signals

Can an aircraft be stalled in laws other than Normal law or only in direct law?

 

[moa999]

It is amazing that in a relatively well defined area with lots of radar and satellite coverage, and close to shipping lanes, it has taken so long to find the pingers let alone the aircraft.

Certainly calls into question a lot of the conspiracy theories around MH370

 

[Mal]

It is amazing that in a relatively well defined area with lots of radar and satellite coverage, and close to shipping lanes, it has taken so long to find the pingers let alone the aircraft.

Certainly calls into question a lot of the conspiracy theories around MH370

I suspect there are a lot of bumbling fools involved in this search, national turf wars and other crazy stuff. Sad really. Just look at the conflicting reports being fed to the media!