Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[antycbr]

Doesn't bode well for the UK, our energy prices are going up by 52% as it is on April 1 (no, not an April fool's joke!). At least the cap is re-assessed every 6 months so the further increase in price won't be felt until October. Originally it was forecast they'd increase by another 20% at that time but will likely be more by then as it is assessed on wholesale prices during the prior 6 months.

I didnt realise that prices were set by the Government in the UK... How does this cap work?

 

[kelvedon]

Doesn't bode well for the UK, our energy prices are going up by 52% as it is on April 1 (no, not an April fool's joke!). At least the cap is re-assessed every 6 months so the further increase in price won't be felt until October. Originally it was forecast they'd increase by another 20% at that time but will likely be more by then as it is assessed on wholesale prices during the prior 6 months.

The UK only gets 5% of its gas from Russia. Much less dependant that Germany 55% ( and this is before the Nord stream pipeline finishes). Most of its gas supply comes from its rigs in the North Sea or from Norway.
However whilst it’s gas supply is not as threatened as Europe‘s, the world price increase will make energy bills more expensive everywhere, even here in Australia.
At least Europe is heading into summer so domestic demand will dampen.

 

[Flashback]

I didnt realise that prices were set by the Government in the UK... How does this cap work?

It sets the maximum price per unit that energy firms can charge on a variable tariff. That's not to say though that firms aren't offering price fixes that just happen to be above what the cap is, so the uninformed can end up paying even more thinking they are locking in a good deal by price fixing.

Currently, a variable tariff is the cheapest way to pay for energy here.

 

[antycbr]

The UK only gets 5% of its gas from Russia. Much less dependant that Germany 55% ( and this is before the Nord stream pipeline finishes). Most of its gas supply comes from its rigs in the North Sea or from Norway.
However whilst it’s gas supply is not as threatened as Europe‘s, the world price increase will make energy bills more expensive everywhere, even here in Australia.
At least Europe is heading into summer so domestic demand will dampen.

Well at least we know that the price for keeping Germans/Europeans warm is just one democracy. Next winter it will be Lithuania when Putin wants a "corridor" to Kaliningrad.

 

[Flashback]

The UK only gets 5% of its gas from Russia. Much less dependant that Germany 55% ( and this is before the Nord stream pipeline finishes). Most of its gas supply comes from its rigs in the North Sea or from Norway.
However whilst it’s gas supply is not as threatened as Europe‘s, the world price increase will make energy bills more expensive everywhere, even here in Australia.
At least Europe is heading into summer so domestic demand will dampen.

Indeed although prices have been rising considerably for some time now so this will only add to it. Yes, demand will be down over summer but that's normal and expected. It just means most people won't be feeling the price rise as much until next winter's bills start to come in....... Our energy usage at home is fairly modest, but our bills have risen a fair whack already after what has been a fairly chilly winter (and continues to be, although it looks like we might get double digits today).

 

[serfty]

It sets the maximum price per unit that energy firms can charge on a variable tariff.

Victoria has a "Default" (rates) offer which energy retailers must provide to a residential customer when requested. With that, "market" offers can be made by the retailers that can have higher/lower rates than the default offer.

 

[kelvedon]

Well at least we know that the price for keeping Germans/Europeans warm is just one democracy. Next winter it will be Lithuania when Putin wants a "corridor" to Kaliningrad.

Yes you have to wonder if the international communities “weak “ sanctions following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 emboldened Putin, and another Chamberlainesque response will only serve to encourage him more.

 

[Flashback]

Victoria has a "Default" (rates) offer which energy retailers must provide to a residential customer when requested. With that, "market" offers can be made by the retailers that can have higher/lower rates than the default offer.

Sounds like a similar type of thing then.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Well at least we know that the price for keeping Germans/Europeans warm is just one democracy. Next winter it will be Lithuania when Putin wants a "corridor" to Kaliningrad.

Welcome to geopolitics in Europe. It isn't all fair.

The west had largely forgotten about the Donbass for 8 years until last month, so what was fair about that? Where were the demands for war conducted by NATO/US with the occupying force then?

 

[Scarlett]

So here are the things I just don't understand:

- Russia has been playing a multi-year game in the Donbas region (and doing it effectively - immorally, sure - but effectively), supporting separatists with personnel (little green men...); materiel; and even giving Russian passports to everyone there who wants one. This has been to, in effect, solidify the 'Russian-ness' of the region and to advance the narrative that these are self-determining Russian regions. Even the 'peace-keeping' narrative, that Russia needed to defend Russians in those regions, whilst illegal, had a logical trail that could be followed. However, why then go and launch a full scale military invasion of the entire country of Ukraine, which pretty much the whole world resents? It effectively destroys the 'plausible deniability' of what has been going on in the disputed regions? Unless the goal is to completely neutralise the military ability of Ukraine and to effect regime change, this is such an over-reach that it cancels out all the previous Russian work. Furthermore, by seeking to become an occupying power, there are such massive logistical and financial costs associated with that course of action, that I just can't understand why Russia would choose this path .

- Once the Russian leadership authorised military actions against Ukraine they have taken responsibility for the outcomes. One of those, even with the best will in the world and the smartest of smart weapons will be civilian casualties. Surely they understand that in time, they will be tried in the International Criminal Court for the scale of the deliberate and negligent deaths of non-combatants. Even if they are tried in absentia, Putin and the Russian leadership surely understand that they can't really travel the world with freedom any longer? They'll be able to travel to vassal states such as Belarus and probably to China, but that might be it.

- Russia must realise, that unless it plans to takeover and hold all of Ukraine for perpetuity, that at some point all of these current military operations will leave it open to paying reparations to Ukraine and its citizens. I imagine the cost of rebuilding and replacing infrastructure being destroyed in ports, on airports and in cities, as well as the destruction being wrought onto the lives of the population will be an expensive legacy to leave future Russian citizens. Knowing that sanctions would be applied and that this action would be a gross affront to the world and would have significant costs, why would they do it? It just doesn't make sense. (I'm certainly no expert in International Humanitarian Law, so would welcome any info on how it applies with reparations in a post-military operation context)

Those are my initial reactions to not understanding why Russia has chosen the course of action it has. Forecasting future outcomes however, I imagine that when the distaste for what has happened spreads throughout Russia and is combined with the effects on ordinary citizens resulting from sanctions, that I suspect the outcome will be: Russian citizens will remove the decision makers and hold them responsible. I wonder if Putin and PM Mishustin ever considered that their final moments might be at the hands of a mob being dragged into a public square... images of the capture of Saddam or Ghaddafi spring to mind.

 

[PineappleSkip]

You think NATO will come rushing militarily to their aide?! Perspective....sanctions sanctions!

Yes they are obligated to. They are NATO members and an attack on one is deemed an attack on all.

Exactly...taking on Russia militarily may be a reason to ignore the treaty!

NATO was mainly set up for taking on Russia militarily, by showing a united front. That's what you do when each side bristles with nukes. Of course a fighting war between NATO and Russia is unthinkable.

 

[kpc]

Yes they are obligated to. They are NATO members and an attack on one is deemed an attack on all.

Obligated doesn't equate to Will Despite being part of NATO, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc would be nervous....they must be wondering would the other NATO members come to their aid as per the treaty if attacked by Russia?! I dont know the answer to this.

NATO was mainly set up for taking on Russia militarily, by showing a united front. That's what you do when each side bristles with nukes. Of course a fighting war between NATO and Russia is unthinkable.

Showing a United front is one thing but actually putting your young men in a war zone is another...

*only an uninformed opinion by an uniformed poster

PS I'm not the only one wondering about China / Taiwan. How Russia conflict could lead to WWIII

 

[33kft]

Funny that the west is so weakened by energy reliance on Russian exports they won't even go in hard on sanctions.

Germany so worried about their energy reliance and pipeline that they are actively campaigning against Russia being excluded from the SWIFT network which, to be fair has a lot of potential pitfalls such as Russia and China implementing alternative networks which interconnect outside of Russia, but this is my entire pont...

If they can just out-maneuver the west with building reliance on their energy exports and costing up with China then what are we (the west).... A small bit player? The emperor has no clothes.

They've gone and vaulted over the line in the sand and we're all reaching for wet lettuce leaves for the the thrashing.

 

[tgh]

They've gone and vaulted over the line in the sand and we're all reaching for wet lettuce leaves for the the thrashing.

Are we really done though ?
A lot of fence sitters may (will need to ?) decide where they stand as the Russian/Chinese partnership starts gobbling up the easy picking weaklings.
Pragmatism declined perhaps ; but the west, reinforced by a few stragglers like India..could stand up to the empire builders.
The US presents as almost as wishy washy as Europe ; however a united and angry US remains a force to be reckoned with
The game rules are tight, nuclear options are off the table as the tit for tat price is too high for most.
Of course the risk is always that a cornered rat may use whatever it takes..
Interesting times.. maybe a good time to re read On the Beach

edit: a fb friend posted this, lots of sympathy about

 

[PineappleSkip]

Despite being part of NATO, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc would be nervous.

Are there any NATO members that aren't nervous right now? Sure there are concerns in NATO and the Baltics but they are more about cyber warfare than physical attacks. Putin has much greater concerns with young Russian speakers no longer identifying so much as Russian.

they must be wondering would the other NATO members come to their aid

It's not a matter of wondering if maybe; as members they are already under NATO's collective defence umbrella, with NATO bases in each of the baltics. And the defences of the baltics are already being bolstered: reminding Putin that NATO is off limits, even though on Russia's doorstep, is part of the response, and why Putin's rhetoric is no longer so much about NATO. He's backed off this because NATO is off-limits to Russian aggression, which is at the core of why he preempted any future move of Ukraine into NATO. The whole rolling back NATO thing always looked like a bargaining ploy, and his attempts at bargaining have failed, or possibly empty rhetoric for the punters at home. Physically attacking any NATO member is a suicidal move, and Putin knows it.

If I was looking for a nervous country, I would be looking towards Georgia in particular, often suggested as the next target. Putin has ufinished business elsewhere, which is really worrying. If he gets away with Ukraine, why stop there? I'm sure they will be jumpy in Moldova over Transnistria as well.

Cheers skip

 

[kpc]

These are the NATO countries that neighbor Russia

The set of countries are among the most concerned about what Russia will do after the country invaded Ukraine.

www.11alive.com

Let's see what happens with Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, NATO members and Russia. To put it back to my personal travels, the locals in Latvia and Lithuania made it clear when I visited 3 years back they did not ever want to be part of Russia again and they were separate nations.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Yeah. 2011 to 2015, in Kabul, I was drinking home grown vodka in a guest house with a Latvian lady and a Kyrghiz Russian, among others. Personally they liked each other a lot, but they hated each other’s politics. In common they had the bond of Soviet times, but never we had a three way discussion on politics. He was the epitome of the Russian diaspora; told me many times that “he is a strong man” Putin was the ants pants. She had zero time for Putin, told me many times about Latvia’s history of takeovers by Swedes and Russians all of which were claimed to be liberations. Luckily we had no Swedes on the team; that may have been a bridge too far.

 

[moa999]

I feel so helpless watching this unfold. We simply don't care about low value/strategic countries? Would Australia let this happen to Singapore?

But that's a Western lense.

The UN isn't going to do anything
Russia sits on the Security council and has a Veto, and China is seemingly supporting them.
(No condemnation from China and increasing trade in grain and oil to help Russia stave off sanctions).
Even India is reportedly looking at ways to convert rupees to rubles.

And NATO sits idly by going well Ukraine isn't a NATO country, despite its members being the main reasons Ukraine actually have up it's nukes.

Unfortunately wouldn't be surprised to see China get more aggressive with HK and Taiwan off the back of this.

 

[Must...Fly!]

NATO rapid response force is being deployed

Re-iterated by Stoltenberg that every inch of NATO territory will be fully defended.

This will no doubt come as a shock to some members of this forum.

 

[MARTINE]

IMHO
… first my heart and thoughts go out to anyone affected by this … I know we are all in some way impacted but people with friends/family in Ukraine right now are going through the unthinkable.

Sadly applying the Western lens does not explain how this is a very long game played out by Putin to restore the Soviet of old - driven by power/money and a hatred of the west which was seen to emasculate the country via Perestroika etc etc.
He is KGB of old watching closely as the old Soviets wanted ‘change’ ie Gorbachov, Yeltsin which was at first unsuccessful as there was spirit but not matter to effect this.
Then it happened.

The irony of course is that travelling in modern Russia on the surface it is all designer stores/American branded food chains/fine dining and very European.

The similarities to other despots outlined by previous posters is apt - whether he will end up suffering the same fate - will depend upon how protected/loyal the generals are and whether there is a P2 plotting in the wings.

To date there have been poisonings/deaths in UK, activists killed in broad daylight (when I was in St Petersburg) and he got away w Crimea not to mention shooting innocent people out of the sky.

I fear that the solution to eradicate him will be very very costly but to do nothing will be worse.