Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[Scarlett]

Or does the relocation to Belarus happen to get them geographically closer to the Ukrainian capital and potentially distract from, or "justify", a mass migration of Wagner Group fighters from eastern Ukraine to Belarus to prepare for a southern move towards Kyiv? I hope not, but the truth is rarely conveyed accurately in any "media release" from either the Kremlin, Russian MOD or Wagner Group.

I think you can safely discount that as a possibility @NM:

- it’s only a few of the senior Wagner group who’ve been offered ‘asylum’, or whatever is the basis of the deal with Belarus. There won’t be thousands moving there and there certainly won’t be the logistics necessary for them do anything of scale.

- Lukashenko might be a horrible dictator, but he’s not stupid and won’t have agreed to anything that could affect his position.

- the bulk of the Wagner fighters are effectively a reserve fighting force for Russia in the Donbas. Russia can’t afford to have them all leave otherwise it destabilises their position in occupied Ukraine.

- Kyiv is not an actual target of Russian regime at the moment. They tried the quick run there to decapitate the UKR government at the start (likely the main objective at the start), but when that failed, then spent the next year confirming the real (propaganda) objective was the Donbas. Russia continues to use long range attacks against Kyiv as a form of pressure on the population and maybe they hope they’ll get real lucky and take out Zelenskyy.

- Finally, the Russians likely don’t have any more offensive capability from the bulk of their ground forces. They’re almost completely committed to defensive positions in the parts of Ukraine they currently occupy. There is nothing really spare to support any other move of any size against Kyiv.

As for Prigozhin, surely he knows he’s not safe in Belarus as the FSB can operate freely there? His leverage against being taken out was the fact that he had his private army and lots of weapons. If he goes to Belarus, what’s he got? Either an accident from a window, some polonium tea, or he’ll just disappear. I genuinely don’t know what leverage he has left to guarantee his own safety, but if he agreed to the deal, he must have something.
Note that these were apparently found in Wagner HQ building when Russian FSB was raiding it yesterday, so he probably has a few more too:




Would the real Yevgeniy Prigozhin please stand up!

Anyway, here’s hoping that the Ukrainians took some advantage from the chaos of yesterday, or that Russia continues to be undermined by internal issues and allows a conclusion to the invasion sooner rather than later.

 

[NM]

I think you can safely discount that as a possibility @NM:

I most certainly and sincerely hope I am wrong.

The one certainly is that the message being given to the world by The Kremlin, Russian MOD, Wagner Group and Lukashenko is not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

 

[drron]

A couple of articles about the "coup". One suggestion was that it was called off because Prigozhin's family was threatened by Russian agents.

12ft |

12ft.io

12ft |

12ft.io

 

[drron]

Fascinating article about an Australian drone being used in the Ukraine successfully. They are flying them into Russia and attacking airfields. Made of waxed cardboard, rubber bands and glue. Come as a flat pack and can carry a 5kg payload.