Covid _19 The future

[tgh]

The news in Australia about Covid management continues to be quite wonderful , kudos to everyone.

There is , however, little to be cheerful about looking forward, street talk everywhere is getting louder about the "end" and a return to normality ; the implication is that Covid is a rain shower that will soon pass and the sun will return.

There is no end in sight ; the disease will peak and then probably become a fixture in most of the world.
We cannot accurately predict it, we cannot accurately diagnose it, we cannot constructively treat it either prophylactically or clinically . We cannot tell if or when we will become reinfected or how our immune system will respond.
The unknowns are multifarious compared to the knowns.

The world truly has changed and the blindness to this at all levels of society worldwide is saddening.

We have an opportunity to functionally destroy the disease in Australia and NZ.
A few more weeks of patience and the work will be done.
We then have the gift of choice, a decision to stay Covid free (virtually.. there are no absolutes) or accept the inevitable alternative of mass infection.
If we open our borders soon we will quickly end up a common denominator in terms of ww case numbers.
We may manage it better , but if we do open our borders, there will probably be an unstoppable rate of mass infection and deaths

Atm, the government is not canvassing the option of long term International entry quarantine and IMO, it should.
I opine that we should limit opening our borders , initially essential travel and progressively for leisure.
We should commence a quarantine process that warrants Covid infection control as far as is practically possible, including full time ingress tracing.

Finally , we should take this opportunity to reclaim self sufficiency in lieu of Chinese dependence.
I opine that many countries will be re considering their dependence on states who do not meet common standards of freedom, democracy and accountability
If we distance ourselves from the glittering dime store baubles , we may be poorer in the gee gaw sense but find some pride in independence.
Do we really need our coal made into Chinese bicycles or televisions ?…... this is a time to consider these questions.

herewith endeth the sermon….

 

[tomlee1986]

I believe what you said is very accurate - there is a trade off on whether we want more freedom or the completely removing the virus in Australia for good...

As to the China and reliance in the country - hate to say this.. many Chinese products are not reliable - being a person of Chinese origin born in HK... HK people knows that China and its products can not be trusted a long time ago... and it is time for the world including Australia to wake up from that reliance - and to start to produce goods and services back in our wonderful country of Australia

 

[dajop]

As to the China and reliance in the country - hate to say this.. many Chinese products are not reliable - being a person of Chinese origin born in HK... HK people knows that China and its products can not be trusted a long time ago... and it is time for the world including Australia to wake up from that reliance - and to start to produce goods and services back in our wonderful country of Australia

I'm seeing reduced reliance on China = diversify production to India or Indonesia. China products can be reliable, but such products are more expensive than those made to a cost, not to a specification.

 

[tomlee1986]

I'm seeing reduced reliance on China = diversify production to India or Indonesia. China products can be reliable, but such products are more expensive than those made to a cost, not to a specification.

I agree less reliance of China = India or Indonesia... I also see USA and Japan are giving incentives for companies to return their production line back there... can Australia do the same??

 

[Pushka]

I think we can shift production from China to elsewhere, but can we likewise make up for the massive decline we would experience if China decided on retaliation by purchasing from elsewhere?

We will have to live with Covid; which means that when we open to International Travel there will be a requirement for a 2 week quarantine on arrival at your expense. But do we have the facilities to do this effectively? Unless we are able to do a rapid test on the spot for Covid. That will likely be our best chance.

 

[oz_mark]

We will have to live with Covid; which means that when we open to International Travel there will be a requirement for a 2 week quarantine on arrival at your expense. But do we have the facilities to do this effectively?

Maybe you will need to book your quarantine stay at the time you book your ticket, !!

 

[p--and--t]

The UK has finally decided to force incoming passengers to self isolate on arrival. Surprised it took this long to wake up given they are on a current forecast of up to 66K deaths.

As more countries are added to the list that will or already require these measures, the proposal that AU do this until the pandemic settles down around the world is not so ludicrous after all (as some have suggested previously).

 

[tomlee1986]

The UK has finally decided to force incoming passengers to self isolate on arrival. Surprised it took this long to wake up given they are on a current forecast of up to 66K deaths.

As more countries are added to the list that will or already require these measures, the proposal that AU do this until the pandemic settles down around the world is not so ludicrous after all (as some have suggested previously).

I agree.. the UK decision is way too late - as even Boris already had his virus and recovered - with mass numbers of infected and dead already - as the old saying goes - the horse has bolted!

 

[drron]

The threats the Chinese Ambassador today quite possibly will backfire.i think it makes it even more imperative that we diversify away from china.
Personally I will try never to buy anything made in China if at all possible.
But for him to threaten that China will not import Australian wines and beef if we dare to investigate the origins of the virus is arrogant in the extreme.For me it actually signals that the virus probably did escape from a virology lab.

However when you look back at SARs everyone now thinks that it originated in a wet market.However there is evidence that one and possibly 2 further limited outbreaks did actually occur due to escape from a virology lab in Beijing.They have form.

SARS escaped Beijing lab twice

Laboratory safety at the Chinese Institute of Virology under close scrutiny

www.the-scientist.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Australia currently imports about $80 Billion from China and earns about $150 Billion from exporting to China per year.

Japan is also very good for our balances (Export $62 Billion, import 26 $Billion). South Korea and India quite good too. After that the others all seems to be only small earners or we make less than we earn.

With the USA we export about $25 Billion, but import $50 Billion.

Note: Figures will obviously vary depend on which 12 months you use.



One would assume that there will post CV19 be some refocusing by Australian companies, government bodies and Joe-public. However I doubt that most of it will be long-lasting. I do expect that some things will be deemed essential and that Australian production of some of these items will at least by Government be deemed a requirement for a set minimum %. However while ScoMo has done very well with CV19 you also need to bare in mind that not long ago that he made the decision to locate a large chunk of our Strategic Oil Reserve in USA Caverns rather than here in Australia (Obviously not good if the emergency is not a financial one).

Recently I bought a German made Bosch Dishwasher for my daughter as a housewarming present over the Bosch Chinese made one. Such a purchase I believe for the extra $ gained a much better machine and one that most likely also will last longer. Sometimes though I do not really need or value that quality depending on the item and the application and how long I need it to last.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The UK has finally decided to force incoming passengers to self isolate on arrival. Surprised it took this long to wake up given they are on a current forecast of up to 66K deaths.

The UK has performed very badly in many aspects and even at this late stage has for example also not got testing and PPE under control. While the USA is often referenced on this forum, the UK performance has been clearly worse.

Sweden who have only moderate measures in place probably only have about half what the true death rate in the UK is. Which shows how bad the UK performance has been.

 

[drron]

Sweden is an interesting example.Many criticise their approach and they will show you this graph-
.

Some think they have the right idea and show this graph instead-
.


But I found this article where it is well explained.Sweden counts every death as Covid if it happened within 30 days of testing positive no matter where that death occurred.Norway which has a much lower death rate only counts those that a doctor reports to the Public health authorities.

In Sweden, Will Voluntary Self-Isolation Work Better Than State-Enforced Lockdowns in the Long Run?

"Sweden's suffering very, very badly" according to President Donald Trump. Nope, says Denmark's former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who…

reason.com

 

[tomlee1986]

The threats the Chinese Ambassador today quite possibly will backfire.i think it makes it even more imperative that we diversify away from china.
Personally I will try never to buy anything made in China if at all possible.
But for him to threaten that China will not import Australian wines and beef if we dare to investigate the origins of the virus is arrogant in the extreme.For me it actually signals that the virus probably did escape from a virology lab.

However when you look back at SARs everyone now thinks that it originated in a wet market.However there is evidence that one and possibly 2 further limited outbreaks did actually occur due to escape from a virology lab in Beijing.They have form.

SARS escaped Beijing lab twice

Laboratory safety at the Chinese Institute of Virology under close scrutiny

www.the-scientist.com

This threat is basically trying to scare Australians to submit to their demands, but I hope for Australia's sake - please say NO to China... this is because we all know China and its government would do anything to promote and keep their political stability at the risk of other people's lives. This can including lying through their teeth, which lead to many people dead or lives changed forever.

 

[luxury-lizard]

@tgh and @tomcut2000 - I find your points of view somewhat pessimistic - not that I disagree completely with any particular point. Just a couple of random thoughts:-

• I do not have much faith in the Australian public's willingness to choose quality over price; i.e.locally made vs Chinese (or other low cost producer's) products / goods - this alone would make a return large scale Australian manufacturing difficult.
• I feel that international travel will become feasible to/from many countries with a combination of approaches - fast (on the spot) testing, a more comprehensive CovidSafe application (allowing tracking on an international level as well as a few other tweaks I can think of - don't underestimate technology as a major part of the solution in the future), improved treatment, a vaccine, some form of quarantine, etc etc
• The world (or impacted parts) overcame Swine Flu, MERS, SARS - not sure why or how - maybe just luck - why not Covid
• I think Australia should stick to what it does best - primary industry - mining and food production - BUT it should also ensure it protects itself from future health (and other?) events - I feel very distressed that if COVID had run rampant here (like in many European countries) our health system would not have been able to cope (e.g. there still seems to be a shortage of PPE in spite of there only being a handful of cases in hospital and elective surgery being on hold).
• Australia needs to (re-)start funding of scientific research - it's more important than ever - if the government can spend billions on JobSeeker and JobKeeper (and other stimulus) packages - why do I still here of laboratories seeking private funding for their Covid programs - cripes !!! sometimes as little as $100-200,000

Anyway that's my 2-cents worth from an IT not medical person - and a realistic optimist.

 

[Pushka]

This threat is basically trying to scare Australians to submit to their demands, but I hope for Australia's sake - please say NO to China... this is because we all know China and its government would do anything to promote and keep their political stability at the risk of other people's lives. This can including lying through their teeth, which lead to many people dead or lives changed forever.

Simon Birmingham just did a radio interview here in Adelaide and he seemed quite clear that their message is that they will not allow economic threats to dictate what they feel necessary for the bio security of the world.

Can someone discuss Belgium? I heard a brief mention on the TV the other day but they didn't elaborate, just that it was bad, and saw the graph above.

In reality, most of the countries have completely different criteria for infection and death rates. I'm not sure comparison graphs speak to reality anymore.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sweden is an interesting example.Many criticise their approach and they will show you this graph-
.

Yes Sweden is. And a common theme in my posts is to be wary when comparing the stats from country to country as one is always comparing oranges ad lemons due to different definitions (ie what is a case and what deaths are included), different quantity and quality of testing etc.

However as in your linked article, I think the following is true.

The truth is that Sweden is somewhere in the European middle when it comes to deaths per capita, which in itself is interesting.

Which is one reason I used the phrase Sweden who have only moderate measures in place probably only have about half what the true death rate in the UK is.

I would tend to believe that both the UK and USA have under reported what their true death rate is (ie Governor Cuomo has highlighted that their figures do not include in-home deaths, and that their early testing failures will have missed deaths).

Sweden while only having moderate official Government measures in place has however according to various articles a population who have seen what is happening around the world and who are for this reason following stricter practices that what their own government recommends. One article I read indicated that the writer' experience and view was that about 50% of Swedes were following struct practices with the others not so.

So Sweden being somewhere in the middle does not surprise. That the UK who is meant to be actively flattening the curve has been so bad is appalling. I will not say a surprise as it has been evident all along that they were not going well.


Sweden has reported 2274 deaths. Australia has reported 84 deaths. So if Australia had followed a Swedish like approach then we may well have a current death toll of about 5700.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Simon Birmingham just did a radio interview here in Adelaide and he seemed quite clear that their message is that they will not allow economic threats to dictate what they feel necessary for the bio security of the world.

Can someone discuss Belgium? I heard a brief mention on the TV the other day but they didn't elaborate, just that it was bad, and saw the graph above.

In reality, most of the countries have completely different criteria for infection and death rates. I'm not sure comparison graphs speak to reality anymore.

Belgium is bad yes. But they also have indicated that they believe their figures are more accurate than many countries.

ie Apples and oranges again.

So that means that countries like UK, France, Italy Spain may all have had death rates similar to or higher than Belgium.


Belgium has surged to the top of the grim leaderboard because authorities decided to be radically transparent, if perhaps a bit speculative, about the toll from the novel coronavirus. They include not only deaths that are confirmed to be virus-related, but even those suspected of being linked, whether the victim was tested or not.

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

The European country of under 12 million people surged to the top of the chart as authorities tally not only fatalities that are confirmed as virus-related but also many suspected of being linked.

www.npr.org

 

[Pushka]

Belgium is bad yes. But they also have indicated that they believe their figures are more accurate than many countries.

ie Apples and oranges again.

So that means that countries like UK, France, Italy Spain may all have had death rates similar to or higher than Belgium.


Belgium has surged to the top of the grim leaderboard because authorities decided to be radically transparent, if perhaps a bit speculative, about the toll from the novel coronavirus. They include not only deaths that are confirmed to be virus-related, but even those suspected of being linked, whether the victim was tested or not.

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

The European country of under 12 million people surged to the top of the chart as authorities tally not only fatalities that are confirmed as virus-related but also many suspected of being linked.

www.npr.org

Thanks. Agree re Apples and Oranges. Maybe if WHO continues to exist then reporting protocols is something they may care to take onboard for the next time.

The confounding factor is that a major cause of death anyway in older people is pneumonia. And Covid attacks older people as a rule. Certainly in Australia . So I'd be reluctant to establish any statistics that aren't based on actual test results. Especially now the test seems freely available.

 

[tomlee1986]

The reason for feeling this way is probably because I understand how the Mainland Chinese government acts and behaves (being a Chinese origin myself)... their government to me is NOT trust worthy... maybe with this upbringing lead me to think about how they will lie about the start of this pandemic

as to WHO... many already believed them to be a mouthpiece of the CCP of China and its government... thus have 0 credibility left

 

[Pushka]

The reason for feeling this way is probably because I understand how the Mainland Chinese government acts and behaves (being a Chinese origin myself)... their government to me is NOT trust worthy... maybe with this upbringing lead me to think about how they will lie about the start of this pandemic

as to WHO... many already believed them to be a mouthpiece of the CCP of China and its government... thus have 0 credibility left

And WHO are now running this Advice promo on the radio. Now, nothing against US folks, but it has a decidedly a American accent telling us what we need to do! Damn annoying and I've never heard WHO doing such promos before. Yeah, but too late for me.

I totally understand people being reluctant to use the app when they have had first hand experience of totalitarian Governments. But for those of us who have not had that experience, then well...