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China (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

Quickstatus

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A virus similar to SARS has broken out in China (Wuhan province). The disease has also been detected in some SEA countries

Theory is that virus is animal origin and has made an animal to human jump and is being propagated by human to human transmission.

SIN, HKG and LAX are commencing screening.

WHO not currently recommending travel or trade restrictions.
 

Pushka

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I heard about this yesterday. It’s already starting to spread. The fatality rate doesn’t seem too disturbing so far assuming the right data has been released.
 

jboy90

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Have been following for the past week and will continue to follow closely... Reported in Thailand, South Korea, Japan as well.
 

33kft

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The fatality rate doesn’t seem too disturbing so far assuming the right data has been released.
I'm not suggesting this is the case mind you, however one of the self-defeating properties of many pandemics is a high and rapid mortality rate amongst hosts. An illness which has a high rate of mortality (which is yet to be seen) over a longer period of time would be much more of a concern. Let's hope that isn't what the data starts to show over time.
 

Quickstatus

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Difficult for Ebola to be a pandemic - spread by bodily fluids and rapid onset of symptoms

SARS , influenza have airborne spread and relatively slow onset of symptoms = is very conducive to a pandemic
 

Quickstatus

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Note the previous SARS screening at airports was very poor at detecting SARS:

In Australia only 4 out of the 700 odd who were referred for airport screening (from 1.8 million incoming passengers) were thought to probably have SARS at airport screening but were later found not to have SARS:

 

p--and--t

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In a press article today, UK Scientists believe the number of infections is closer to 1,700 rather than the official Chinese government figure of 201.
 

Quickstatus

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As Chinese New Year (Jan25) is just around the corner, this is could spread very fast. CNY is a period of massive travel demand because many chinese diaspora go back to their hometowns.

MU749 operates WUH-SYD direct non stop with an A330-200 several times a week.
 
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Pushka

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They really need to be a little proactive now. And that means being vigilant for flights coming in from Wuhan and maybe even China.
 

Pushka

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The problem is vigilant for what?

previous airport screening were not accurate and did not pick up any SARS infections
Signs of high temperatures might be a start. Coughing. General illness. And observation whilst waiting for luggage, not for criminal suspicious behaviour but illness.
 

drron

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A young Englishman is thought to have the disease in Thailand.2 Chinese tourists were found to have the virus in Thailand.The fellow hadn't been to China so if it is this virus it probably means person to person transmission.

The problem with surveillance is it is thought the incubation period is up to 2 weeks.
 
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Quickstatus

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Signs of high temperatures might be a start. Coughing. General illness. And observation whilst waiting for luggage, not for criminal suspicious behaviour but illness.
They screened for all of those symptoms but none of the people that screened positive had SARS - see article link in post #8

So the screening test is not sensitive = they did not identify any people who had symptoms and also positive SARS patients
And the test is also not specific = they did not reject any patients who had symptoms but were negative for SARS

This is the worst kind of screening test.

The way they detected for high temperature was also erroneous. They used thermal imaging which really only measures skin radiated heat. You can actually get a fever while be cold to touch. Medicos dont measure skin temperature - they measure core temperature - as represented by thermometer under tongue or in ear or under armpit.
Maybe they got to get arriving passengers to walk past the thermal imager with their arms in the air so that armpit temperature can be measured.o_O

New thermal imaging devices can estimate core temps but are very expensive and bulky and not necessarily accurate or fast.

And yes someone could be exposed but be completely normal on arrival while the virus is incubation
 
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Pushka

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They screened for all of those symptoms but none of the people that screened positive had SARS - see article link in post #8

So the screening test is not sensitive = they did not identify any people who had symptoms and also positive SARS patients
And the test is also not specific = they did not reject any patients who had symptoms but were negative for SARS

This is the worst kind of screening test.

The way they detected for high temperature was also erroneous. They used thermal imaging which really only measures skin radiated heat. You can actually get a fever while be cold to touch. Medicos dont measure skin temperature - they measure core temperature - as represented by thermometer under tongue or in ear or under armpit.
Maybe they got to get arriving passengers to walk past the thermal imager with their arms in the air so that armpit temperature can be measured.o_O

New thermal imaging devices can estimate core temps but are very expensive and bulky and not necessarily accurate or fast.

And yes someone could be exposed but be completely normal on arrival while the virus is incubation
Maybe but it might stop those who have symptoms from flying if they know they might get screened.
Post automatically merged:

A young Englishman is thought to have the disease in Thailand.2 Chinese tourists were found to have the virus in Thailand.The fellow hadn't been to China so if it is this virus it probably means person to person transmission.

The problem with surveillance is it is thought the incubation period is up to 2 weeks.
Yes but there isn’t much we can do about that.
 

tgh

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All very interesting
We have no idea if this will just fizz or explode .
The biological anthropologists prognosticate that "it" is just a matter of time.. is this the time ?
 

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