Besieged Qantas directors to meet in NY on crisis items

[oz_mark]

RISING fuel costs and tight credit conditions pose a new dilemma for Qantas directors, who are in New York for a board meeting.
The directors are now in New York for what the airline says is the most important board meeting in years.

Top of the agenda is the fuel crisis, which has caused the carrier's shares to tumble over the past year, halving the value of the business.

...and maybe the 777 is on the cards...

Apart from the A380 and Boeing Dreamliner, the airline has to find a replacement for its 13 ageing 747 Boeing jumbos.

The only option available at present is the Boeing 777-300 ER, (extended range) twin jet, which is reputed to be the most fuel-efficient aircraft flying.

It is understood that one of the reasons for holding this week's board meeting in New York was to hold talks with Boeing president James McNerny who is keen to sell the aircraft to Qantas, a move which could see the airline trade some of the options it holds for Dreamliners in exchange for the 350-seat 777s.

Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon has told both Boeing and Airbus the aircraft to be chosen as the 747 replacement has to carry 350 passengers and fly the Pacific non-stop.

The 777 has all of these attributes

 

[Mal]

Qantas has constantly resisted the 777, so I find it hard to believe they'll sign up for some now with the 787 not too far away.

Still, with fuel the way it is, perhaps they will get some (ala the Airbuses they currently have) to make do until they get their 787's.

 

[ric_melb]

I hardly think Qantas is besieged, and also think it unlikely they will fly the 777 at this stage.

 

[oz_mark]

Personally, I doubt the 777 will be flying in Qantas colours. Jetstar is a maybe, and it may come down to dollars and timings. It would certainly not be an ideal situation, but given the capacity constraints that aren't going to ease any time soon, maybe it is just possible.

 

[moa999]

Given the current environment with airlines grounding planes and deferring orders I can't see any orders, let alone the 777 on the horizon.
Qantas has one of the largest order books (380s and 787s) of almost any airline.

20 A380s - 2nd only to Emirates
65 787s - largest airline, 2nd only to ILFC

 

[simongr]

With them cancelling routes and scaling back on some routes I do not understand why they would be thinking of new aircraft. I guess though that the major cut backs are on non-747-400 routes so any free aircraft from other routes will not be able to switch into these routes.

I would assume that the only way this would work would be if there had been some late cancellation of aircraft and thus there are some pretty close slots opening up for the 777... all a bit strange though - one other consideration might be further delays with the 787 might be on the cards...

 

[oz_mark]

Something needs to replace the 747-400's. They are starting to get on, and there is nothing in the order book to replace them.

 

[moa999]

What do you call 20 A380s if not a replacement for the 747-4s.

Given QF is only just retiring the 747-3s, and doing internal refits on the 747-4s I think the birds will be flying for a few more years to come.


...

Given the 787 delays it would not surprise me if some 787-9 orders were swapped for 777s

 

[simongr]

Also when QF were ordering their 787s and A380s even with the delays they would have known the age of the 744 fleet thus I can't understand why this would be a crisis now...

Sorry oz-mark - not trying to argue/disprove you - just trying to understand what is going on...

 

[oz_mark]

Also when QF were ordering their 787s and A380s even with the delays they would have known the age of the 744 fleet thus I can't understand why this would be a crisis now...

Sorry oz-mark - not trying to argue/disprove you - just trying to understand what is going on...

I'll try to track down another reference, that says that Qantas were still on the lookout for something to replace the 747-400's, but weren't really that happy with anything that was on offer.

 

[oz_mark]

What do you call 20 A380s if not a replacement for the 747-4s.

I think you will find 20 A380's does not approach replacing the existing fleet, and the A380 is potentially too big for some of the places it has to go.

 

[simongr]

I'll try to track down another reference, that says that Qantas were still on the lookout for something to replace the 747-400's, but weren't really that happy with anything that was on offer.

Wikipedia has this comment:

The 747-400 series, meanwhile, which is the current flagship aircraft of the airline, operating the most important international routes, will be phased out beginning in 2013. The 747-400's will be replaced by the Airbus A380. Qantas is also considering the Airbus A350 to replace the 747-400's in addition to the A380; the Boeing 787 may also replace some routes.

Can't find much else at the moment..

 

[serfty]

Also when QF were ordering their 787s and A380s even with the delays they would have known the age of the 744 fleet thus I can't understand why this would be a crisis now ...

I disagree, while the delivery of the first of the QF A380's is over two years late, that of the remainder is much more.

Four are scheduled for this year (8, 10, 11, 12); three next year (Q2,Q3,Q4) and another three in 2010 (Q1x2, Q2).

That still leaves another 10 and I expect that QF originally expected all 20 by the end of next year.

 

[simongr]

But that information has been known for a while - not sure why that would precipitate a crisis right now...

 

[serfty]

I think the crisis is in relation to the cost of JetA.

The 743's were due for decommissioning some years ago; they have been retained due to the late arrival of the A380's. Will JetA costs at current levels, the 743 simply cost too much to operate so are being disposed of. This, even though Qantas are short of aircraft.

The A380's/787's (& maybe 777's) are or will be much more fuel efficient if/when they eventually fly in Qantas livery.

 

[ANstar]

But that information has been known for a while - not sure why that would precipitate a crisis right now...

Perhaps the skyrocketing price of oil is much higher than they predicted and thus is making the 747 an unattractive aircraft to be operating.

 

[oz_mark]

I think the crisis is in relation to the cost of JetA.

The so called crisis has been precipitated by the cost of JetA, but has been excacerbated by the conscious decision of the board and management of QF some years ago to age the fleet. This has resulted in an airline that has a number of gas guzzling aircarft.

 

[simongr]

Perhaps the skyrocketing price of oil is much higher than they predicted and thus is making the 747 an unattractive aircraft to be operating.

I guess they must have some fuel price point that makes the 744 unworkable - as they would for every aircraft - I assume that tipping point is forecast to come fairly soon...

 

[docjames]

I think with the waiting list on 777s i wouldnt be expecting them any time soon.

 

[ANstar]

I think with the waiting list on 777s i wouldnt be expecting them any time soon.

apparently there is a leasing company that has cancelled some deliveries so there are 2008/2009 slots available.

BA are also interested int hese slots as well.