Australian state border restrictions

antycbr

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The closure of the Trans Australian Railway between Port Augusta and Tarcoola is about to cause huge issues for NT and WA. Estimate is 2 weeks of disruption.

Given the onerous testing and sheer cost of road freight is going to prevent a switch to road transport when 60 percent of freight is on rail.
 
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exceladdict

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Another lamb ad for the WA Premier.
View attachment 270048
Where abouts is that? Don't doubt the joke would sell a few chops.

I'm sure the people of NSW in particular are taking well deserved delight in what is unfolding now, but regardless the reality is that WA are now really really stuck when it comes to their state border restrictions.

They have officially given up at 25ish cases a day, I don't think because that's not impossible to trace, trace and control at that level with the right levers (it is) but because the hard cold reality has now hit them - that even if they do pull out the stops and 'crush and kill' it will literally be days before the next outbreak, and the next and the next and the next....

It will keep streaming through the border because they can't keep essential workers out, HQ is not bullet proof etc etc. A new outbreak could literally be seeding right now and probably is, it is so prevalent everywhere else.

Sometimes it needs to hit people in the face physically before they understand it and I feel that from the comments and tune changing and other moves like back flipping on RATS, the WA government has made in the last 48 hours this has clearly happened.

Now when will they open? Their Premier needs to save face, so it won't be Feb 5. But I suspect it will be soon.
Given up and attempting to control the narrative are two different things. Mark was, in yesterday's presser, stating that contact tracing - as long as there's one case per contact tracer per day or less - is still feasible, and that there's a surge capacity of ~870 tracers (if i recall correctly).

I think the spin doctors have directed Mark and AJS to get in front of the inevitable (uncontrolled spread) as - like many on this forum have stated - the WA public have become used to Mark being 'in control' (for better or worse) and he doesn't want to have to backtrack further (of course, nobody does). I think the strategy is now 'controlled introduction' (though I doubt we hear those words publicly).

AJS (health minister) said a border reassessment would occur in "four weeks or so" which would be mid-late Feb. IMO the variables are
- third dose percentages
- daily case rates interstate (translated as the likelihood of inbound travellers 'seeding' local infections),
- local cases, and
- ICU occupation.

My hypotheses, for what they're worth (which may not be much, given I was very surprised by the 5 feb reneg):
  • If local cases approach or exceed spread on east coast, borders open by late March unless ICUs are overrun, in which case the 'seeding' argument might push it out by a month.
  • If local cases slow-burn and remain lower than east coast, then open when third dose is projected to reach 60-80%. Not sure when the projections estimate that will be, but I think one of the other states reported 1% a day recently, so if we're anywhere close to that we are maybe looking at 2-3 months.
I also think there's an outside case for a late-feb 'we open for easter school holidays no matter what' announcement, in an attempt to get the 3rd dose rate up, but as that card's already been played, it may not be effective so I don't rate it too highly.
 

antycbr

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Where abouts is that? Don't doubt the joke would sell a few chops.


Given up and attempting to control the narrative are two different things. Mark was, in yesterday's presser, stating that contact tracing - as long as there's one case per contact tracer per day or less - is still feasible, and that there's a surge capacity of ~870 tracers (if i recall correctly).

I think the spin doctors have directed Mark and AJS to get in front of the inevitable (uncontrolled spread) as - like many on this forum have stated - the WA public have become used to Mark being 'in control' (for better or worse) and he doesn't want to have to backtrack further (of course, nobody does). I think the strategy is now 'controlled introduction' (though I doubt we hear those words publicly).

AJS (health minister) said a border reassessment would occur in "four weeks or so" which would be mid-late Feb. IMO the variables are
- third dose percentages
- daily case rates interstate (translated as the likelihood of inbound travellers 'seeding' local infections),
- local cases, and
- ICU occupation.

My hypotheses, for what they're worth (which may not be much, given I was very surprised by the 5 feb reneg):
  • If local cases approach or exceed spread on east coast, borders open by late March unless ICUs are overrun, in which case the 'seeding' argument might push it out by a month.
  • If local cases slow-burn and remain lower than east coast, then open when third dose is projected to reach 60-80%. Not sure when the projections estimate that will be, but I think one of the other states reported 1% a day recently, so if we're anywhere close to that we are maybe looking at 2-3 months.
I also think there's an outside case for a late-feb 'we open for easter school holidays no matter what' announcement, in an attempt to get the 3rd dose rate up, but as that card's already been played, it may not be effective so I don't rate it too highly.
Your second dot point brings reopening uncomfortably close to three things:

Winter

Federal Election

A High Court challenge.

To deal with the third point they need a plan before someone takes them on.
 

danflyer

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Seems pretty clear triple vaxxed WA residents can leave and return where they are prepared to quarantine.

Just a matter of whether international quarantine (+getting in under arrivals cap) or interstate quarantine is more palatable- most saying neither.
If that first bullet point is read to the letter, then yes maybe, but I wonder how it would be implemented (can you really leave and return for any reason after 5 Feb?).

Also it seems a bit unfair for WA residents who have relatives oversees and not in the eastern states. Should they not also be allowed to visit their mother / father overseas and be able to return?
 

danflyer

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I'm sure the people of NSW in particular are taking well deserved delight in what is unfolding now, but regardless the reality is that WA are now really really stuck when it comes to their state border restrictions.

They have officially given up at 25ish cases a day, I don't think because that's not impossible to trace, trace and control at that level with the right levers (it is) but because the hard cold reality has now hit them - that even if they do pull out the stops and 'crush and kill' it will literally be days before the next outbreak, and the next and the next and the next....

It will keep streaming through the border because they can't keep essential workers out, HQ is not bullet proof etc etc. A new outbreak could literally be seeding right now and probably is, it is so prevalent everywhere else.

Sometimes it needs to hit people in the face physically before they understand it and I feel that from the comments and tune changing and other moves like back flipping on RATS, the WA government has made in the last 48 hours this has clearly happened.

Now when will they open? Their Premier needs to save face, so it won't be Feb 5. But I suspect it will be soon.
Even with the new hard border after 5 Feb, the amount of returning residents will result in a further surge in cases. Even with RATs and home quarantine, people with bring it with them. And HQ, with a house full of relatives? It's getting out.
 

oz_mark

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Even with the new hard border after 5 Feb, the amount of returning residents will result in a further surge in cases. Even with RATs and home quarantine, people with bring it with them. And HQ, with a house full of relatives? It's getting out.

Indeed. As the border become more porous there will be more cases.

But never fear, WA has its saviour...
 

exceladdict

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And HQ, with a house full of relatives? It's getting out.
I could be wrong, but I believe that's how the current omicron outbreak started, via a TAS traveller.

If i understood the new restrictions correctly, anyone who is in the household of someone quarantining must also quarantine along with the traveller to reduce the risk of this happening again.

But yes, whether this actually happens in practice will determine whether it's effective or not.
 

danflyer

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I could be wrong, but I believe that's how the current omicron outbreak started, via a TAS traveller.

If i understood the new restrictions correctly, anyone who is in the household of someone quarantining must also quarantine along with the traveller to reduce the risk of this happening again.

But yes, whether this actually happens in practice will determine whether it's effective or not.
You're right, and I'm sure 99 % of people would do the right thing. But there's bound to be some accidental or reckless spread. It's just a numbers thing really.
 

Must...Fly!

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oznflfan

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G2G is dead in NT from Tuesday as are RATs for interstaters. However seems you'll still have to complete a border entry form.

I think that just leaves WA then using that stupid app?

And that was just enough to push me over the edge, quick trip to Melbourne 3-6 Feb booked. No plans, maybe a show, shops, coupla nice restaurants.
 

Must...Fly!

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Pressure has been ratcheted up in WA. Hearing the government feels it can't hold on any longer and will make an announcement soon(ish) to be "open" by mid March.
 
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oz_mark

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Pressure has been ratcheted up in WA. Hearing the government feels it can't hold on any longer and will make an announcement soon(ish) to be "open" by mid March.

Not sure where the specific pressure is coming from, but hopefully, it will let them simplify the rules, given all the exceptions and changes they have made to the post Feb 5 settings already.
 

jakeseven7

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Not sure where the specific pressure is coming from,

Ummm everywhere you look these days 😂

Case in point

——

Pressure mounts on WA border as more executives flee east​


Leading West Australian businessman Richard Goyder is the latest Perth-based chief to quit his home state due to the delayed border reopening.

This Saturday, WA was meant to remove its hard border and join the rest of Australia in allowing travel free of quarantine, instead a spectacular late night backflip saw tens of thousands of Australians stranded yet again across state borders.

This comes as business begins relocating key workforces out of Perth while covid spreads around WA leading more and more WA residents to question ‘nonsensical’ border closures as ‘irrelevant and irresponsible’.

 

Bundy Bear

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I am expecting the border to open up on the 5 March. There are likely to be some restrictions required like a negative COVID test before you can leave your place of accomodation.
 

antycbr

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Ummm everywhere you look these days 😂

Case in point

——

Pressure mounts on WA border as more executives flee east​


Leading West Australian businessman Richard Goyder is the latest Perth-based chief to quit his home state due to the delayed border reopening.

This Saturday, WA was meant to remove its hard border and join the rest of Australia in allowing travel free of quarantine, instead a spectacular late night backflip saw tens of thousands of Australians stranded yet again across state borders.

This comes as business begins relocating key workforces out of Perth while covid spreads around WA leading more and more WA residents to question ‘nonsensical’ border closures as ‘irrelevant and irresponsible’.

There will be no way AFL will schedule Perth matches without clarity from McGowan.

Ticky Fullerton put the boot into McGowan in the Oz today

“Business has had enough. The sporting world has had enough. Mark McGowan has been called a liar and a Muppet for his backflip on borders, and West Australian companies are seriously considering moving their headquarters to other states.”


 

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