Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Carrots]

Still pending as it only happened last week and still active. He's saying he didn't get the text last Friday night, but then reportedly showed others in the club the result. Kissed girls and didn't tell them. The nightclubs heard the rumours of a positive clubbing that night and several just closed up very early. This guy then went to breakfast at a cafe next morning but said that was ok as he was outside. He has been identified as being the son of one of SA's wealthiest families and attended private schools (irrelevant of course) but the media won't release his name. However The Advertiser needs to be more careful as a Google search showed a cached by line with his name with a warning DO NOT USE WITHOUT SPEAKING TO SIMON CROSS . His friends are likely angry as now they can't go anywhere and have to keep getting tested. The girls he kissed have so far tested negative.

The (seemingly relatively accurate) rumour mill is that he was actually at the cricket Friday. As told by those that know him and were there.

Apparently his "history" as a brat is quite lengthy. Was expelled from Saints and ended up at Geelong Grammar. Has written a car or two off for good measure. Sounds like a right royal little prick!

 

[Quickstatus]

Imperial college London report on the relative risk of Omicron hospitalisation.

…Table 3… HR = hazard ratio

 

[jakeseven7]

The (seemingly relatively accurate) rumour mill is that he was actually at the cricket Friday. As told by those that know him and were there.

Apparently his "history" as a brat is quite lengthy. Was expelled from Saints and ended up at Geelong Grammar. Has written a car or two off for good measure. Sounds like a right royal little prick!

Agree - Sorry it’s a little bit funny it’s so bad…

 

[chelzmalee]

We've had a spike in Central West NSW - 28 new cases in Dubbo (who had a Delta outbreak in September as well) - doesn't surprise me, though. I was there yesterday in the mall and I estimate maybe 10% of people were wearing masks. It's going to spread like wildfire again amongst the community.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Here’s a surprise (not):

COVID-19: People with Omicron less likely to be hospitalised than those with Delta, study in England suggests

The Imperial College research suggests people with Omicron are 15-20% less likely to need hospital treatment compared with Delta - and 40-45% less likely to stay in hospital for one night or more.

news.sky.com

Though bear in mind that in Australia that hardly anyone has had covid unlike in South Africa where in some regions the majority have had covid already. Plus in the UK many more have had covid % wise than compared to Australia.


If that is replicated in Australia then it is more the findings for people who have not already had covid that is most relevant.

People who test positive for Omicron are 15-20% less likely to be admitted to hospital compared to those infected with Delta, according to a new study in England.​

​

Those with Omicron after a previous infection are 50-60% less likely to be hospitalised, compared with those with no previous infection.​

​

The risk of hospitalisation is similar for Omicron and Delta in people who test positive and previously had at least two vaccine doses, the research concluded.​

 

[Must...Fly!]

Sounds like some form of restrictions are coming back in NSW after Christmas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473855245201543169

 

[OATEK]

Though bear in mind that in Australia that hardly anyone has had covid unlike in South Africa where in some regions the majority have had covid already. Plus in the UK many more have had covid % wise than compared to Australia.


If that is replicated in Australia then it is more the findings for people who have not already had covid that is most relevant.

People who test positive for Omicron are 15-20% less likely to be admitted to hospital compared to those infected with Delta, according to a new study in England.​

​

Those with Omicron after a previous infection are 50-60% less likely to be hospitalised, compared with those with no previous infection.​

​

The risk of hospitalisation is similar for Omicron and Delta in people who test positive and previously had at least two vaccine doses, the research concluded.​

Can we summarise this as saying people in Australia are less likely to be hospitalised from Omicron than Delta as the headline stated implied?

 

[Pushka]

Looks like the venue might sue as well - I hope they throw the book at him

'We will be seeking justice': 150 patrons and staff sent into quarantine after COVID-positive teen went clubbing

Patrons of an Adelaide nightclub are ordered to quarantine after a 19-year-old who had just received a COVID-positive test result hit the town for a night out.

www.abc.net.au

SA health aren’t saying how many people have tested positive as a result other than ‘multiple’.

Post automatically merged: Dec 23, 2021

The (seemingly relatively accurate) rumour mill is that he was actually at the cricket Friday. As told by those that know him and were there.

Apparently his "history" as a brat is quite lengthy. Was expelled from Saints and ended up at Geelong Grammar. Has written a car or two off for good measure. Sounds like a right royal little prick!

Apparently he didn’t activate his ticket. He would have been at the back of the members if he was.

So why did he get a test in the first place? Doesn’t strike me as the kind who’d wait in the car for hours unless he was directed to do so. Maybe he went to that other bar on the Wednesday and was a close contact. In which case he should already have been in quarantine.

 

[jase05]

Masks back indoors for NSW from midnight

 

[Quickstatus]

Can we summarise this

Forget skynews report, go direct to the source paper table 3, page 8 IIRC . Link in my post above

Important to intepret the data in the context of the UK where the 17% of the population have been CovidPositive. Only an estimated1/3 of the population tested - and where all of the positive results have come from. Once you do the math it is entirely possible that over half of the population have been exposed. And the proportion of unvaccinated who have been exposed to Covid (and therefore developed antibodies) likely higher (if we accept that vaccinations work).

The assumption in all the commentary about Omicron is that the pandemic clock starts again. Omicron is a Johnny who came late to the party which started with Delta -The clock does not start again. Vaccination numbers and infected numbers were a lot lower when that party started but is now lot higher

The similarities in Hazard ratio in those with Covid2-3Jabs + Delta vs Covid2-3Jab + Omicron is also entirely consistent because there is only so much the CovidVax can do. Patient factors outside of CovidVax play an important part in whether people end up in hospital/ICU or not.

Possibly also intepret South Africa in similar light - Vax low but infected number already high. Omicron comes along and is similarly muted in its effectiveness.

Stop listening to the purveyors of fear. There is nothing special about Omicron

 

[jeza]

Contact tracers swing into action after positive COVID-19 case at Northbridge bar

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Contact tracers swing into action after positive COVID-19 case at Northbridge bar

Need to quadruple bag it if it’s Omicron, triple bag for Delta. Secondary contacts /bagging only worked for Alpha

 

[jrfsp]

Masks back indoors for NSW from midnight

I thought the "please dont mingle" was great, luckily its not christmas or anything

 

[MelMel]

Early COVID-19 studies suggest Omicron hospital risk less than Delta variant


Early COVID-19 studies suggest Omicron hospital risk less than Delta variant
Hopefully the numbers continue to be lower, maybe the epidemiologists will stop panicking everyone.

 

[jase05]

Nearly up to 500 cases in SA today but not seeing huge panic and shops are absolutely packed still

 

[Pushka]

Nearly up to 500 cases in SA today but not seeing huge panic and shops are absolutely packed still

The shops are packed likely because they haven’t heard the number

 

[Quickstatus]

Early COVID-19 studies suggest Omicron hospital risk less than Delta variant

Here’s a surprise (not):

Several here are linking different news links as though there are multiple sources - but they are all reporting on the one research paper.
See my post above for the actual paper. Go to table 3 for the actual estimates. Again better the source data than reading what a journalist interprets.

 

[jase05]

The shops are packed likely because they haven’t heard the number

Nah, most I know are expecting 1000 per day by New Years
Couple of big companies shut their offices in town yesterday and will WFH. Sounds like several cases so far in each

 

[Spongbob]

Masks back indoors for NSW from midnight

This and the reintroduction of QR code check-in, is NSW now the "humble pie" State?

 

[Scarlett]

Single case active in the community in WA.
PANIC STATIONS! Dancing banned!

Welcome to 2021 PERsons over there...