The problem was that the Doherty Institute was asked the wrong question. They modelled what they were asked which was for an outbreak commencing from a Covid Zero starting point, and then to 30 cases and then on.
What we really need to know is what vaccination rate is required for a steady state (in terms of health outcomes) ongoing endemic from Covid19, including any transition phase to get to that steady state.
The Doherty Institute is quite capable of modelling this, and so it will be interesting to see what they are asked to model this time. Presumably these will be a range of scenarios starting with different levels of community spread, rather than virtually no cases.
The other flaw is that it only looked at an 180 day period. As covid looks to be endemic, we are heading towards a living with covid situation, and so we really need a longterm living with covid framework and not just a 180 horizon.
180 days for example is not useful for planning longterm health resources. How many ICU beds to we need on an ongoing basis,. how many outpatient clinics for longterm covid etc.
It will most likely be somewhere around 80%-ish of fully vaccinated adults still in terms of not many interventions.. However the real word of our own hospitals will be ultimate indicator.
Including the effects from vaccinated children would also be interesting to see. so vaccinating children may not be until 2022.