Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[straitman]

So irrelevant nonsense then.

Even nonsensical people are entitled to an opinion.

 

[justinbrett]

So irrelevant nonsense then.

I’m not sure, but it’s better to counter an argument with facts rather than just dismissing it based on where it comes from.

 

[JessicaTam]

[mod hat]
Back to the topic.
[/mod hat]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think the lesson is don't take your health advice from AFF members.

I offered no health advice. I observed that the modelling should be redone for it to be valid for the situation as it exists (higher case numbers than 30), rather than the scenario requested back in June which will not be the case now.

Listen to the health experts. The federal CHO was very confident with his advice today which contradicts said member.

The Chief Medical Officer said today that he has requested that the Doherty Institute run the modelling again starting with a higher base (ie case numbers). So the modelling will now be done for the situation at hand which was my point.

Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly's press conference about COVID-19 – 22 August 2021

Read the transcript of Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly's press conference on 22 August 2021 about coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.health.gov.au

 

[justinbrett]

I offered no health advice. I observed that the modelling should be redone for it to be valid for the situation as it exists (higher case numbers than 30), rather than the scenario requested back in June which will not be the case now.



In reading just now what the Chief Medical Officer said today he has requested that the Doherty Institute run the modelling again starting with a higher base (ie case numbers). So the modelling will now be done for the situation at hand which was my point.

Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly's press conference about COVID-19 – 22 August 2021

Read the transcript of Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly's press conference on 22 August 2021 about coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.health.gov.au

I’ll quote specifically what he said that make me disagree with you so strongly (I watched it live)

Does this need to go back to the drawing board? The answer is absolutely not. The assumptions, of course, with all modelling can be changed. And sensitivity analysis - that's the technical term for what has been done by the Doherty Institute - can be relatively and easily done. The general principles and, yes, I have had a discussion with Jodie McVernon about this, remain the same. The model itself remains the same. It's a tweak to the assumption. So that's the work that's being done this week. As I said in the previous answer to the same question, I don't think it will materially change things a lot. But that's- let's see and have an open mind to what our modellers can show us and I have full faith in that group.

 

[drron]

So I decided to go and read the Doherty report for the National Cabinet.I am a bit skeptical because I found this on Page 7.

Baseline TP will be influenced by spontaneous and imposed changes in physical distancing
behaviours, the number of social contacts on average between individuals and the timeliness of test,
trace, isolate, quarantine (TTIQ) measures. We use a starting TP of 3.6 for the Delta variant based on
averaged observations from NSW in March 2021, a period with minimal social restrictions and no
major outbreaks.

There was no delta variant in Sydney in March 2021.I hope it is just bad use of language and it means it is the modelling of population behaviour in March 2021.I still don't see how that is relevant to their behaviour now though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’ll quote specifically what he said that make me disagree with you so strongly (I watched it live)

Does this need to go back to the drawing board? The answer is absolutely not. The assumptions, of course, with all modelling can be changed. And sensitivity analysis - that's the technical term for what has been done by the Doherty Institute - can be relatively and easily done. The general principles and, yes, I have had a discussion with Jodie McVernon about this, remain the same. The model itself remains the same. It's a tweak to the assumption. So that's the work that's being done this week. As I said in the previous answer to the same question, I don't think it will materially change things a lot. But that's- let's see and have an open mind to what our modellers can show us and I have full faith in that group.

Yes the model is the same.

They are going to rerun it with different inputs to reflect the actual likely situation which is what I suggested needed to be done.

 

[oznflfan]

Which looks like being an invalid assumption very soon. Makes it harder to thumb your noses at other states. However the current WA budget surplus should all be earmarked for fixing the problems in WA Health in advance of opening up rather than the health system being ramped all the time… with no Covid.

Ranking of number of public hospital beds best to worst, surprise surprise:

 

[justinbrett]

Yes the model is the same.

They are going to rerun it with different inputs which is what I suggested needed to be done.

It’s a tweak. You were talking about a completely different recipe. He doesn’t think it will change the outcome.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So I decided to go and read the Doherty report for the National Cabinet.I am a bit skeptical because I found this on Page 7.

There was no delta variant in Sydney in March 2021.I hope it is just bad use of language and it means it is the modelling of population behaviour in March 2021.I still don't see how that is relevant to their behaviour now though.

The original modelling was commissioned back in June, which is why its inputs needs to be updated.

It modelled what was, rather than what now is. It is good that the modelling is now being rerun with scenarios to reflect the what the situation now is.

 

[Princess Fiona]

The original modelling was commissioned back in June, which is why its inputs needs to be updated.

It modelled what was, rather than what now is. It is good that the modelling is now being rerun with scenarios to reflect the what the situation now is.

I read the 42 pages when they were initially released and over the last couple of days off work have reread them.
The modeling was based on 30 cases in the wild being released into the population at various levels of vaccine coverage.
There was also some modeling done on looking at reducing the age range from 16yrs and up to 12yrs and up and there was really no benefit on reduction of the transmission potential / TP of Delta by doing that (transmission potential being what drives an outbreak and the subsequent hospitalization/ ICU/Death).
Looking forward to what is released based on more realistic inputs to the model at 70 and 80 % vaccination as it is clear that we will not be starting from zero cases in NSW, VIC at the very least.

 

[Princess Fiona]

And in other news, the response in Far Western NSW is giving significant cause for concern.
A snippet from The Australian

The usual SNAFU in rural and regional but this has the potential for unacceptable consequences.

 

[justinbrett]

And in other news, the response in Far Western NSW is giving significant cause for concern.
A snippet from The Australian
View attachment 256240
The usual SNAFU in rural and regional but this has the potential for unacceptable consequences.

I was just reading that.

Also that NSW Health won‘t give details to police about the Maroubra party. The police minister is quite upset.

I don’t condone the party but I think it’s important to keep contact tracing information confidential. We should do nothing that closes those channels.

 

[SydneySwan]

In theory the testees will all be isolating at home. Unfortunately home is where Delta does most of its work.

 

[hydrabyss]

I was just reading that.

Also that NSW Health won‘t give details to police about the Maroubra party. The police minister is quite upset.

I don’t condone the party but I think it’s important to keep contact tracing information confidential. We should do nothing that closes those channels.

There was also a gathering at a church in Blacktown of dozens of people last night.

 

[justinbrett]

In theory the testees will all be isolating at home. Unfortunately home is where Delta does most of its work.

There’s probably a better way to phrase that

 

[Pushka]

When swine flu hit in 2009 ish it was mainly younger people who developed it. It was thought that the oldies had developed immunity through previous contact with a similar virus, likely back in the '70's. Now, with Delta hitting children hard, it seems the same thing is recurring, this time not impacting so much on those vaccinated.

 

[Must...Fly!]

18 months in we are still getting it so wrong.

‘Confusion and bewilderment’ over childcare access as government backflips on decision

One school principal told The Age he had struggled all weekend to get clarity and information from government officials about which children would be allowed to attend childcare and kindergarten from Monday.

www.theage.com.au

-

And also - seems like some sitting MPs are reading the tea leaves in their electorates.

Clash looms over Prime Minister’s lockdown exit target

Labor leader Anthony Albanese, though, is calling for the public to see the full health advice so people could know whether it was safe to ease the rules.

www.theage.com.au

 

[justinbrett]

18 months in we are still getting it so wrong.

‘Confusion and bewilderment’ over childcare access as government backflips on decision

One school principal told The Age he had struggled all weekend to get clarity and information from government officials about which children would be allowed to attend childcare and kindergarten from Monday.

www.theage.com.au

-

And also - seems like some sitting MPs are reading the tea leaves in their electorates.

Clash looms over Prime Minister’s lockdown exit target

Labor leader Anthony Albanese, though, is calling for the public to see the full health advice so people could know whether it was safe to ease the rules.

www.theage.com.au

I think the QLD press conference will be interesting this morning - yesterday the deputy premier and deputy CHO spoke and caused quite a stir by basically saying the national plan is void because NSW has cases; yet on Friday the Premier said she still fully backs the plan and the CHO said borders can still come down at 80% even if there's hundreds of cases.

 

[Must...Fly!]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429576841354825729