Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

I think about the only point NSW can go now is total lockdown in say the Top 6 LGAs for 14-days, to try and bump down the curve to give us a few more months, with everyone in that area required to get a test in the last 7 days.

By total lockdown I mean no-one in that area goes to work - including police, ambulance, etc. Almost all authorised workers. Everything in that area including take-away, cafes and supermarkets is closed. The rest of Sydneys population has to take up the slack in staffing authorised and needed industries.

Very minimal list of exceptions including doctors, chemists, hospitals and some emergency food deliveries.

It breaks the essential worker - family chain that is reportedly the major spread in that area.

Still don't see that getting us anywhere zero, but it may enable a bump in cases back into the hundreds.

But I don't see the government having the willingness to do it, and there's no guarantee you wouldn't have to do the same thing in another 6 wks.

Sorry, but that is beyond insane. This is not the end of the world. It’s a mild virus that has resulted in virtually zero unavoidable deaths. Australia is beyond the point of unreasonable here. Yes, lets run a few more weeks of these already draconian measured to further increase vaccinations. But to suggest that even emergency services should be locked down is dangerous.

 

[Lynda2475]

By total lockdown I mean no-one in that area goes to work - including police, ambulance, etc. Almost all authorised workers. Everything in that area including take-away, cafes and supermarkets is closed. The rest of Sydneys population has to take up the slack in staffing authorised and needed industries.

Completely impractical as would leave major hospitals non functional, if you take Westmead (which includes Children's hospital), Liverpool (major chemo centre), Fairfield, Bankstown, Blacktown and other hospitals out of the network you are leaving well over a million people with no emmergency care, no cancer programs etc. Heart attacks, accidents and strokes dont stop because you want to shut everything down. That will kill way more people than Covid.

Then what about garbage collection, age and disability services? Without Police and ADF no one to enforce the lockdown, or stop the rioting that would ensue. How do you deliver food and medications to over 1.2M people in the 6 LGAs with most active cases?

There are are also high security prisons in the area that cant be left unguarded.

Redirecting doctors, nurses, cops, fire brigade from other areas will not only create staff shortages elsewhere, it still has people travelling in and out of high case regions.

Locking down further will not solve this, too many already not complying, it only punishes those doing the right thing.

Covid zero was never the plan and is not achievable, give up the fantasy and accept that there will be cases.

 

[N860CR]

That will kill way more people than Covid.

We are at the point that kicking your toe and dying from an infected toenail is more risky than covid for the under sixties; which for reference is what a 17 year old died from not that long ago.

 

[clarkkent]

The Doherty modelling informed the current plan. Even Treasury supports lockdowns over whatever alternatives they considered. Is there any credible publicly available modelling supporting any alternatives for this interim period until vaccination levels are "high enough"? It's hard to take seriously the earnest exhortations in this thread that aren't backed by any modelling.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I can't copy and paste it but the article says:

• At least 40 cases to 7pm today, many as a result of day 13 testing of Al-Taqwa contacts.
• All school contacts in isolation for their entire infectious period.
• School community has been very co-operative.
• Concerns about a possible homeless cluster. Dept of health preparing in case of outbreak.
• Authorities investigating movements of homeless sex worker who has tested positive. Case centre around St Kilda.

I will be more interested in the StKilda testing blitz. Hopefully it is finding the missing links.

Numbers from people in full 14 day quarantine are not really relevant. They may alarm some but they are all in chopped off transmission chains. Any case in quaratine with the day 13 positive result will then have their quarantine extended further.

It is cases that have not be isolating for all or part of their infectious period that will be the ones to focus on.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Further lockdowns for Sydney problem LGA probably won’t help, just more people will be find.
Keep jabbing as fast as you can.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Epstein tweet

Sorry but bigger number coming for Melb today I’m told more than double yesterday. So that means today is more than 48.​

​

HOWEVER most of the big increase are results of day 13 testing for people in isolation. So that part of the system is working.​

​

7:38 AM · Aug 19, 2021·Twitter for​

 

[Pushka]

I heard this morning a homeless sex worker in St Kilda has tested positive. I really hope this is totally wrong. And 40 cases.

 

[OATEK]

I will be more interested in the StKilda testing blitz. Hopefully it is finding the missing links.

Numbers from people in full 14 day quarantine are not really relevant. They may alarm some but they are all in chopped off transmission chains. Any case in quaratine with the day 13 positive result will then have their quarantine extended further.

It is cases that have not be isolating for all or part of their infectious period that will be the ones to focus on.

I understand the need to look at the positives, but I do think that there will be real challenges keeping people in isolation for 28 days. Yes, infectious in the community is the key marker as Sydney demonstrated, but don't underestimate the challenges of keeping a lid on the outbreak.

 

[trevella]

I do think that there will be real challenges keeping people in isolation for 28 days.

Agreed. Some sort of lockdown will almost certainly be required deep into October, so they'll need to find ways of making their policy settings more sustainably palatable. A change of tone will definitely be needed at some point.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I heard this morning a homeless sex worker in St Kilda has tested positive. I really hope this is totally wrong. And 40 cases.

The sex worker was in the numbers announced yesterday.

At yesterday's presser journo ask Foley about the "homeless" Sex worker who was reported asa case at the start of the presser.

Foley advised that the worker lived in accommodation (ie was not homeless).

It was also advised that all of their close contacts had as of the presser not returned a positive test.

Note that the practice in Vic at present is with any new case where they believe transmission has occurred that they will give a rapid test, as well as a PCR test to all known close contacts. The rapid test is not as reliable as the PCR and that is why they do both.

 

[bcworld]

57 - 44 in isolation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428125013656276993

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I understand the need to look at the positives, but I do think that there will be real challenges keeping people in isolation for 28 days. Yes, infectious in the community is the key marker as Sydney demonstrated, but don't underestimate the challenges of keeping a lid on the outbreak.

I am not denying the challenges, but this has been the process since the removalists infected the apartment dweller who then set of the transmission chains at Young and Jacksons and the CG. And then those infected there created more cases and chains. ie Ms Frankies, Phillip Island, Schools etc.

So far it has worked without leakage.

At that time as people had to quarantine for 14 days regardless of test result about 5-10% chose to not not get tested till day 13. I don't think for the current quarantined cohorts that they have indicated a figure.

If anyone refuses to get tested at all it is a 28 day quarantine.

If someone tests positive of day 13 as their first result I think they have to do another 14 days.
If a new person in the household tests positive at day 13, then quarantine is extended for all.

People in the main quarantine within their own home. However in settings (ie multi-level apartments) where transmission risk is high to adjoining residents people are encouraged to relocate to quarantine off site. Note this does not just mean HQ as just are moved to accommodation where they can safely self-quarantine.

Note that some people ask to quarantine elsewhere when there are others in their household who are vulnerable that they wish to not infect. Most families choose to quarantine together.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

57 - 44 in isolation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428125013656276993

So 3 unlinked cases, and 13 who have not been in isolation for at least part of their infectious period.. So as 10 were linked most of those will have been isolation for at least part of their infectious period.

Test numbers up to 49 thousand which is good, though I was hoping for better given that they yesterday that they asked about 200+ thousand to get tested yesterday (Though to be fair some may have with the results coming back after midnight, and so will be in the test numbers for tomorrow).

 

[justinbrett]

Not good at all.

 

[mbell1510]

If only Melbourne had a real lockdown and not this #mockdown then cases would fall to zero.....

Not that anyone should be thrilled Melbourne's cases are going north like here in Sydney, but it clearly shows the draconian rules that might have worked before appear to have met their match with Delta. Yet another example of why chasing Covid zero is pointless going forward.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think most in this thread know of Covidlive.

The person who created Covidlive tweeted last night that he is due for his Day 13 test from being a Caroline Springs Exposure.

 

[bcworld]

Yet another example of why chasing Covid zero is pointless going forward.

If going forward means from today, what do you think policy should be for say, the next 2 months?

 

[jakeseven7]

If going forward means from today, what do you think policy should be for say, the next 2 months?

I think NSW has no choice but to maintain the roughly same restrictions but people need to realise in terms of absolute numbers it’s still going to churn out thousands of cases (but not tens/hundreds of thousands if restrictions eased).

Increasing restrictions in NSW is really not going to do much/nothing because the level of non compliance is too high for all the millions of reasons discussed here: covid/lockdown fatigue, more people getting vaccinated won’t bother testing, asymptomatic vaccinated people etc etc

Increasing restrictions in NSW is just going to hurt people now more than it helps them - in my opinion. And regardless, our law enforcement isn’t built to police an entire population - it’s just not possible.

VIC may still get it back in the bag with a bucket load of luck, who really knows but I suspect they won’t and will be in the same (but better/delayed) position than NSW as they drive for same result - s-tonnes of vaccines in arms.

 

[dairyfloss]

If going forward means from today, what do you think policy should be for say, the next 2 months?

Here's my somewhat tongue in cheek thoughts for the next few months, and a little beyond...

1) Wait a little to prove - most likely - that no curfews or lockdowns, short of the Wuhan style nailing of doors shut, will stop Delta, and certainly will not stop it from returning again, and again.
2) Maintain a level of lockdown which focuses on BIG problem spots (sorry, SW/W Sydney), but also overall minimization of the short-to-mid term spread (2-3 months). Accept flattening or flatness as 'good'. No further hardening of lockdowns.
3) Stop panicking about case numbers - track it; make it available to check; but focus only on infectious in the community and/or serious adverse conditions or deaths. Remind people that >99% of these people were not [fully/historically] vaccinated, or have serious co-morbidities, including advanced age. Remind people in addition that close to 500 people die in Australia from other causes every. single. day.
4) Allow fully vaccinated to mix with other fully vaccinated in certain environments (own home with limited numbers, outdoor events, outdoor F&B).
5) Advise at a national level of mandatory vaccinations or +ve recovery passes (as we see in some other nations) in as many environments as is possible. Develop a process for similar digital passes for those who are medically unable to be vaccinated.
6) Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate - admit to all that it's not fair on the country and it's people to try and stop the spread by indefinitely stopping life for 100% of people. Everyone who can, must be vaccinated as soon as is practicably possible, and with whichever brand of vaccine they can get into their arms.
7) Grin and bare it for a while.
8) Mid November: Reach the fabled 80% target of double-dose protection nation-wide
9) Tell those who are at risk by choice that we are done, now, and it is now up to them to look after themselves - continue to encourage shots for all that can, on the basis of the billions of sample data points, with only the tiniest fractions of risk, and definitely no microchips or 5G coverage.
10) Let it rip.
11) Enjoy Christmas with a family that we haven't seen in 18 months, in whatever part of Australia, or god's good earth that you so choose.
12) Hear about an odd virus circulating in some part of the world, code named SARS-CoV-3 / COVID-22...
13) Read story about WA still closed and with a State-wide ring of steel, 30% vaccinated and pushing hard for COVID-19 zero

Cheers,
Matt.