Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Cases were pretty low prior to this “outbreak”. I think at some point you have to take your courage in both hands and just do it.
I don't think he has confidence in the systems just yet although he has denied that. But it was a comms confusion that seems to be the core at the current issue. But it seems to be isolated in a small pocket amongst known groups. However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested. 🤷‍♀️
 
However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested. 🤷‍♀️
Are you sure? When I have heard this discussed recently with respect to various outbreaks in the North-metro area it has been that compliance was very good and that people were eager to be tested.


It was also stated that if anyone did refuse to be tested that they would have to quarantine for 14 days, and to be released from that early was one reason why people were eager to be tested.
 
Last edited:
I’m so over the NSW comparisons, they never had the number of active cases we did.


Which is why I just posted those graphs. We only now in Vic only approaching, and soon will be at, where NSW is. And NSW was never anywhere near the number of cases or mystery cases that Vic unfortunately was.
 
I’m so over the NSW comparisons, they never had the number of active cases we did.
No they didn’t 20,000 cases in Victoria vs bit over 4,000 in NSW. I don’t think anyone would ever (well almost no one) , feel that Victoria didn’t have to do what they did and well done to Victorians for doing it and beating it.

let’s hope in a day or two will see reopening.
 
Are you sure? When I have heard this discussed recently with respect to various outbreaks in the North-metro area it has been that compliance was very good and that people were eager to be tested.
I read that report in the media today.


"Victoria’s testing commander Jeroen Weimar said authorities had been able to connect the 11 households.........
Mr Weimar said some groups associated with the northern suburb clusters refused to get tested, but were currently quarantining at home.

“There’s isolated clusters of people who refuse to be tested at a certain time,” he said.

“There are occasionally good reasons for that. We do not allow people who were suspected of harbouring the virus to go out to the community.”

Heaven knows if they are correctly isolating, refusing visitors and so on. That has never worked well it seems.
 
Sponsored Post

Struggling to use your Frequent Flyer Points?

Frequent Flyer Concierge takes the hard work out of finding award availability and redeeming your frequent flyer or credit card points for flights.

Using their expert knowledge and specialised tools, the Frequent Flyer Concierge team at Frequent Flyer Concierge will help you book a great trip that maximises the value for your points.

From what they said at the Vic Presser today they are. Just in a day or two.

Also Dan also said today that the 1 Nov easings would still most likely occur. If so the the bulk of easings will not have changed as to when they occur.

What may be different is that the earlier Dark Opening (ie preparing to open) of Restaurants and Retail that was hoped to be announced today to start on Monday, may now well be from Tuesday/Wednesday or later instead.




By way of further explanation, unknown community transmission has dropped markedly. Sutton stated that he was hopeful that its would reach the original target within days.

Also the cases in the North Metro Outbreak go back several weeks (Some members had already completed isolation on Monday. The Year 5 boy for example was later than his siblings an tested positive with his Day 11 test after the Day 3 test was negative.

So weeks ago when the North-metro outbreak started if was just after a period of that Mystery Cases had been at a much higher level than they are at now, and very much higher than what they will soon be at.

If you look at the graph below you can see that 6 cases are due to drop off over the next 3 days. So if no new Mystery cases, the trigger will have dropped from 9 to 3 = target reached. There is possibly 1 unclassified case pending that may become a mystery case. But that would still see it at 4.

Within a week the 14 day rolling trigger may be down to 1 or 2. So this is what I was referring to by stating that a future outbreak like Sutton was referring to would be in a background of not having significant unknown community transmissions. When the North-metro outbreak was probably kicking off it would have been most likely somewhere between 20 and 30.

So having a future outbreak happening from a background of 0-5 mystery cases is risk wise quite different from an outbreak kicking off when they are 20-30 mystery cases.

ie Vic is now entering where NSW was/is.

View attachment 231341

View attachment 231335

NSW Mystery cases last 3 months
View attachment 231338


NSW Mystery Cases last 6 months
View attachment 231339
But there aren’t 20 to 30 mystery cases there are 9 in a 2 week period -
 
What do people think the mask situation will be like in Vic when the interstate borders reopen? No masks like the other States? (Not looking for any arguments on their effectiveness.)
I think Vic will have mandatory masks at least until Covid normal step (current test is 28 days of no new cases and no active cases)
 
No they didn’t 20,000 cases in Victoria vs bit over 4,000 in NSW. I don’t think anyone would ever (well almost no one) , feel that Victoria didn’t have to do what they did and well done to Victorians for doing it and beating it.

let’s hope in a day or two will see reopening.
NSW has a different definition of active cases. They define it as anything up to 28 days old.

If you look at the number of total cases and less the recovered number, it does not equal the active cases in NSW
 
But there aren’t 20 to 30 mystery cases there are 9 in a 2 week period -

Yes 9 as of today.

However the North-metro outbreaks did not start today, but at least several weeks ago. So if you are comparing the management of a future outbreak to North -metro outbreak/s you need to compare both situations as of when both outbreaks commenced.

Yesterday's report was:
  • Northern metro region community (active 15, total 28)
So 13 people in these outbreaks had of as yesterday had already recovered. We also know last Monday that at least 2 siblings had been allowed out of isolation a day or two prior to that after return a second test which was negative after an earlier positive test (e they had recovered). At that report it was also indicated that at least 5 households were involved. So it could well have been running for longer than 3 weeks with 3 weeks most likely being the minimum.

I have not actually seen what date patient zero was at.

So when North metro outbreak/s was having its first cases the rolling 14 day trigger would have been substantially higher.
 
Last edited:
NSW has a different definition of active cases. They define it as anything up to 28 days old.

If you look at the number of total cases and less the recovered number, it does not equal the active cases in NSW
??? I was quoting total number of cases according to Covid live. Not active cases. Are you saying NSW had more than 4382 total cases?

EDIT - I ignored the “active” criteria. Obviously if you have 5 times as many cases you are also going to have more active cases.
 
Last edited:
??? I was quoting total number of cases according to Covid live. Not active cases. Are you saying NSW had more than 4382 total cases?

EDIT - I ignored the “active” criteria. Obviously if you have 5 times as many cases you are also going to have more active cases.
ACcording to NSW Health, the total cases is 4193 (including interstate arrivals). Some people (not me) might also add that a major portion is international quarantine (as opposed to acquired overseas) so its a different position.
 
I think Vic will have mandatory masks at least until Covid normal step (current test is 28 days of no new cases and no active cases)


Yes as per your post it will be a while.

And the focus on removing the requirement will I suspect also depend on the pattern of mystery case occurring (with of course a mystery case also be a new case and active case).
 
ACcording to NSW Health, the total cases is 4193 (including interstate arrivals). Some people (not me) might also add that a major portion is international quarantine (as opposed to acquired overseas) so its a different position.
Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).
 
Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).

You may prefer:

1603596733508.png


In covidlive for community transmission it has:

1603597306168.png
1603597148425.png
 
Last edited:
Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).
Haha we all use Covidlive because they have a lot of historical data readily available, so long as we all accept that it’s only right (or near right) about 90% of the time.

My issue with discounting mandatory quarantine too readily is because:
I) we will soon have quarantine-free arrivals
Ii) there are the celebrity overseas arrivals who have their own isolation requirements, with more coming for the summer sport season
Iii) we used to trust overseas arrivals in the early days
Iv) we are actively managing local quarantine/isolation compliance.
I’m sure there are other reasons.
Post automatically merged:

You may prefer:

View attachment 231356



View attachment 231359
The screenshot of covidlive of NSW is different to NSW health’s figures today. Flying mermaid quoted the same number I think off covidlive
 
I don't think he has confidence in the systems just yet although he has denied that. But it was a comms confusion that seems to be the core at the current issue. But it seems to be isolated in a small pocket amongst known groups. However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested. 🤷‍♀️

People refusing to be tested baffles me but it happened in QLD and NSW as well.... At least in this situation they are saying sure but enjoy an extra amount of time in quarantine.... I know what I would do.
 
People refusing to be tested baffles me but it happened in QLD and NSW as well.... At least in this situation they are saying sure but enjoy an extra amount of time in quarantine.... I know what I would do.
And my bet is that if restrictions ease for all next week then they will no longer self iso anyway.
 
The Frequent Flyer Concierge team takes the hard work out of finding reward seat availability. Using their expert knowledge and specialised tools, they'll help you book a great trip that maximises the value for your points.

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

Status
Not open for further replies.

Enhance your AFF viewing experience!!

From just $6 we'll remove all advertisements so that you can enjoy a cleaner and uninterupted viewing experience.

And you'll be supporting us so that we can continue to provide this valuable resource :)


Sample AFF with no advertisements? More..

Currently Active Users

Back
Top