From what they said at the Vic Presser today they are. Just in a day or two.
Also Dan also said today that the 1 Nov easings would still most likely occur. If so the the bulk of easings will not have changed as to when they occur.
What may be different is that the earlier Dark Opening (ie preparing to open) of Restaurants and Retail that was hoped to be announced today to start on Monday, may now well be from Tuesday/Wednesday or later instead.
By way of further explanation, unknown community transmission has dropped markedly. Sutton stated that he was hopeful that its would reach the original target within days.
Also the cases in the North Metro Outbreak go back several weeks (Some members had already completed isolation on Monday. The Year 5 boy for example was later than his siblings an tested positive with his Day 11 test after the Day 3 test was negative.
So weeks ago when the North-metro outbreak started if was just after a period of that Mystery Cases had been at a much higher level than they are at now, and very much higher than what they will soon be at.
If you look at the graph below you can see that 6 cases are due to drop off over the next 3 days. So if no new Mystery cases, the trigger will have dropped from 9 to 3 = target reached. There is possibly 1 unclassified case pending that may become a mystery case. But that would still see it at 4.
Within a week the 14 day rolling trigger may be down to 1 or 2. So this is what I was referring to by stating that a future outbreak like Sutton was referring to would be in a background of not having significant unknown community transmissions.
When the North-metro outbreak was probably kicking off it would have been most likely somewhere between 20 and 30.
So having a future outbreak happening from a background of 0-5 mystery cases is risk wise quite different from an outbreak kicking off when they are 20-30 mystery cases.
ie Vic is now entering where NSW was/is.
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NSW Mystery cases last 3 months
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NSW Mystery Cases last 6 months
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