Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[DC3]

I think you may mean unknown community spread.

Don't know. Just what I heard today. No mention of Unknown.

Yes, not easy to count unknowns.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Sounds unusual to develop symptoms 2 months after her suggested acquisition of the virus in India. Isn't 60 days longer than the previous longest suggested incubation period.After 14 days it is estimated that only 1 in 10000 high risk patients are missed.The longest incubation period reported that I could find was 27 days.

The last case in SA was a man in his 70’s who landed from the UK on 20th March and tested positive on 5th May.
SA Health seemed very certain his was contracted in the UK but he “wasn’t infectious” on the flight on the way over.
I’m not too clear how that has been established.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The longest incubation period reported that I could find was 27 days.

Another outlier is Mirabai Nicholson-McKellar from NSW who first felt the first effects of COVID-19 more than two months ago. On Monday, day 68 since her original diagnosis, Ms Nicholson-McKellar again tested positive for COVID-19. Unlike the SA case she seems to have had symptoms coming and going for this period too which makes her one of the more unuasal cases.


But three days later, six weeks after the first symptoms, she relapsed and ended up in hospital.

"I had the onset of quite severe chest pain and tightness again," she said.

"They took another swab test and I tested positive.

"The second positive test was quite disappointing.

"I'm alone, I'm in pain, my chest hurts. I've never had this sensation before; fatigue and brain fog and I just want to rest all day."

"The symptoms, the way they kind of come and go and shift and change, it kind of sends you a bit loopy, like really, is this happening?"

Day 68 of feeling unwell: Mirabai returns a third positive COVID-19 test

Mirabai Nicholson-McKellar first began feeling ill with COVID-19 more than two months ago. Since then she has twice thought she had shaken the disease, only for the symptoms to return.

www.abc.net.au

 

[woodborer]

Yes, not easy to count unknowns.

Is that the Known Unknowns, or the Unknown Unknowns?

 

[drron]

Another outlier is Mirabai Nicholson-McKellar from NSW who first felt the first effects of COVID-19 more than two months ago. On Monday, day 68 since her original diagnosis, Ms Nicholson-McKellar again tested positive for COVID-19. Unlike the SA case she seems to have had symptoms coming and going for this period too which makes her one of the more unuasal cases.


But three days later, six weeks after the first symptoms, she relapsed and ended up in hospital.

"I had the onset of quite severe chest pain and tightness again," she said.

"They took another swab test and I tested positive.

"The second positive test was quite disappointing.

"I'm alone, I'm in pain, my chest hurts. I've never had this sensation before; fatigue and brain fog and I just want to rest all day."

"The symptoms, the way they kind of come and go and shift and change, it kind of sends you a bit loopy, like really, is this happening?"

Day 68 of feeling unwell: Mirabai returns a third positive COVID-19 test

Mirabai Nicholson-McKellar first began feeling ill with COVID-19 more than two months ago. Since then she has twice thought she had shaken the disease, only for the symptoms to return.

www.abc.net.au

But that is not a 68 day incubation period.Still arguments as to whether such cases are reinfections or a persistent virus that begins to multiply again.

A bit like the case with shingles.It is the chickenpox virus which persists in a nerve.the shingles may come 60 years after the original chickenpox infection but most wouldn't say it had a 60 year incubation period.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Mathematical modeller Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths urges us to remember that, “instead of focusing on which model is correct, we should accept that one model cannot answer it all.” As one aphorism in the field states: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”."

When I first started my professional career so many moons ago that computers were only starting to be the norm and I was doing my first modelling work I was advised by my then manager "Garbage in, garbage out". It is way too easy to have number, or a curve generated and to just then assume that it is correct, all shown to the 9th decimal place.Which was another of my managers instruction to not show outcomes at a greater accuracy that the reliability of the data going in would dictate. So one always needed to do some checks on whether the answer was reasonable. Plus you would also do a sensitivity analysis, and use that to predict what would happen if the assumptions were in fact different and what various outcomes would then be.

All models will have assumptions in them. Sometimes these may be pure guesses, at other times they will be more data driven. That data with Covid 19 will have initially been based on previous viruses where the final behaviour will be different than Covid 19 is.

With Covid 19 there are many assumptions. Having listened to epidemiologists from both the USA and UK speak on this one of the points they raised was that their modelling greatly underestimated just how well the public at large would embrace and do well at physical (social) distancing. They all grossly underestimated this. Indeed one of the UK epidemiologists remarked that if one of his colleagues had suggested to him last year to model physical distancing as a control measure like they currently are that he would have thought him to be mad! The physical distancing assumptions of effectiveness is most likely the main reason that so many of the early models were generating much higher death tolls.


The models do allow the public health experts to play around with the relative effectiveness of various measures. But again these results are always a guide. The better the data becomes, the better the guidance.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is that the Known Unknowns, or the Unknown Unknowns?

Well the unknowns also often reduce in the stats as contact tracing can cause some of the unknown community transmission cases to become known ones when if a linkage is found.

And indeed on some days you will see a certain number reported for unknown community transmission reported from the testing just done with the results back, and then see by the end of the day that number whittled down and sometimes even to zero as a linkage is made and the case reclassified.

 

[Pushka]

The last case in SA was a man in his 70’s who landed from the UK on 20th March and tested positive on 5th May.
SA Health seemed very certain his was contracted in the UK but he “wasn’t infectious” on the flight on the way over.
I’m not too clear how that has been established.

I think it was circumstantial evidence! May not hold up in a court. However he had only been with his family of 3 other people, none of whom had any contact with anyone known to be positive, were not particularly socially active, and none of whom were positive. They did wonder if he just hadn't fully thrown off the evidence of the virus and he had reported feeling symptoms of loss of taste shortly after he arrived into Australia but at the time these weren't known as symptoms so he didn't bother doing anything until those symptoms were later stated as, well, symptoms.

Post automatically merged: May 20, 2020

Is that the Known Unknowns, or the Unknown Unknowns?

I dunno. That's a known unknown known methinks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The rate of flu spreading is probably a good indicator of how well social (physical) distancing along with measures such as better and more frequent handwashing is working.

Even though yes more people have been vaccinated earlier this year than the flu numbers have been smashed.

2019 was a bad flu year, but our numbers for Jan and Feb this year were virtually identical and then plummeted in March and April.

As of 18 May, there are only 97 for the month. May last year it was 30,372 for the whole month.

Now flu years vary in coughulative numbers, flatness of the curve as as well as when the peak is, but even the very low years May is say 2000 or more.

https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/18May-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

 

[RooFlyer]

Mathematical modeller Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths urges us to remember that, “instead of focusing on which model is correct, we should accept that one model cannot answer it all.” As one aphorism in the field states: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”."

Ah, models (of the mathematical/projection kind). Wonderful things. Entirely dependent on their inputs and assumptions.

The models do allow the public health experts to play around with the relative effectiveness of various measures. But again these results are always a guide. The better the data becomes, the better the guidance.

I like what both of you are saying.

But results of a model need not be any guide at all. The 'results' will be entirely defined by their inputs (which is a point you made LTO). I wouldn't discount that modelers, guided by 'experts' have made assumptions 'conservative' in their nature and if there are multiple conservative assumptions, then the 'average case' will be ultra-conservative.

Like LTO, I've constructed models for a living, for a while - financial models of companies. I could make them crash, or do better than Apple by a few subtle tweaks which, on examination, it would be bloody hard to detect!

I'm happy for the experts to tell us what we should be doing in the pandemic. But I reserve the right to be highly skeptical when they quote 'models' - just as skeptical of 'models' in a certain-other-discipline which I won't mention here

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ah, models (of the mathematical/projection kind). Wonderful things. Entirely dependent on their inputs and assumptions.



I like what both of you are saying.

But results of a model need not be any guide at all. The 'results' will be entirely defined by their inputs (which is a point you made LTO). I wouldn't discount that modelers, guided by 'experts' have made assumptions 'conservative' in their nature and if there are multiple conservative assumptions, then the 'average case' will be ultra-conservative.

Like LTO, I've constructed models for a living, for a while - financial models of companies. I could make them crash, or do better than Apple by a few subtle tweaks which, on examination, it would be bloody hard to detect!

I'm happy for the experts to tell us what we should be doing in the pandemic. But I reserve the right to be highly skeptical when they quote 'models' - just as skeptical of 'models' in a certain-other-discipline which I won't mention here

Yes it is a bit like statistics. You can often use them to back up any argument you want to make.

Did you know that marriage is the prime cause of divorce? Every single person who has been divorced has been married.

 

[p--and--t]

Did you now that marriage is the prime cause of divorce? Every single person who has been divorced has been married.

Wow that's more than a model that's a fact LOL

"100% of divorcees were married". Therefore divorce is caused by marriage

A fatal mistake by many researchers and others not understanding (or not wanting to understand) the context and relationship of the data and drawing the wrong inferences. (great for conspiracy theories)

 

[burmans]

Did you know that marriage is the prime cause of divorce? Every single person who has been divorced has been married.

As any student of statistics will tell you correlation does not imply causation.

 

[JohnM]

Did you know that marriage is the prime cause of divorce? Every single person who has been divorced has been married.

Marriage is certainly a very good predictor of divorce (and vice-versa...); but the cause? - not so clear-cut.

Good enough, though...

 

[Flashback]

Marriage is certainly a very good predictor of divorce (and vice-versa...); but the cause? - not so clear-cut.

Good enough, though...

COVID-19 and isolation/lock down...

 

[TheRealTMA]

Marriage is certainly a very good predictor of divorce (and vice-versa...); but the cause? - not so clear-cut.

Good enough, though...

Time and causation Causation does not explain contextuality

 

[p--and--t]

Time and causation Causation does not explain contextuality

OMG late in the evening on a Saturday night with a full belly that article made me dizzy.

 

[JohnM]

Time and causation Causation does not explain contextuality

Pffft... - simples - Schrodinger and the feline had it sorted.

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

OMG late in the evening on a Saturday night with a full belly that article made me dizzy.

And that was only the abstract - imagine the rest...

 

[serfty]

Easing in the DPRV (Victoria) lockdowns:

From June 1:

• Private gatherings will increase to allowing 20 people in a house, including the members of the household
• 20 guests can attend a wedding and up to 50 people will be allowed at a funeral
• Restaurants, cafes and pubs can reopen to serve meals for up to 20 customers, with alcohol only allowed to be served with meals
• Overnight stays will also be allowed at private residences and camping and tourist accommodation will be able to reopen - without the use of shared facilities
• Non-contact sporting activities increase to 20 participants, while auction houses and open house inspections can also host up to 20 people
• Galleries, museums, zoos and amusement parks can also reopen their doors to up to 20 people per space, while ensuring the density quotient is applied to the entire venue
• Swimming pools will reopen to a maximum of 20 people with no more than three swimmers per lane
• Non food and drink market stalls will also be able to open for business again
• Up to 20 people will also be able to attend small religious ceremonies

From June 22:

• the number of patrons at pubs, cafes and restaurants can increase to up to 50.
• The number of people attending galleries, museums, zoos and other entertainment venues will also increase to 50.
• The ski season will be able to kick off from June 22 and indoor gyms and sports venues will be able open to up to 20 people, with 10 people able to take part in group activities.
• Indoor cinemas, concert venues, theatres, arenas and stadiums will also be able to reopen, hosting up to 50 seated patrons.

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we’re focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Easing in the DPRV (Victoria) lockdowns:

From June 1:

• Private gatherings will increase to allowing 20 people in a house, including the members of the household
• 20 guests can attend a wedding and up to 50 people will be allowed at a funeral
• Restaurants, cafes and pubs can reopen to serve meals for up to 20 customers, with alcohol only allowed to be served with meals
• Overnight stays will also be allowed at private residences and camping and tourist accommodation will be able to reopen - without the use of shared facilities
• Non-contact sporting activities increase to 20 participants, while auction houses and open house inspections can also host up to 20 people
• Galleries, museums, zoos and amusement parks can also reopen their doors to up to 20 people per space, while ensuring the density quotient is applied to the entire venue
• Swimming pools will reopen to a maximum of 20 people with no more than three swimmers per lane
• Non food and drink market stalls will also be able to open for business again
• Up to 20 people will also be able to attend small religious ceremonies

From June 22:

• the number of patrons at pubs, cafes and restaurants can increase to up to 50.
• The number of people attending galleries, museums, zoos and other entertainment venues will also increase to 50.
• The ski season will be able to kick off from June 22 and indoor gyms and sports venues will be able open to up to 20 people, with 10 people able to take part in group activities.
• Indoor cinemas, concert venues, theatres, arenas and stadiums will also be able to reopen, hosting up to 50 seated patrons.

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we’re focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

The cafes, restaurants and pubs had previously been announced, but the others are new.

Combined this will mean a lot of jobs will get recommenced, and also very importantly a lot of small businesses get re-activated as well. This in turn will increase spend at other already operating businesses.

I know of one independent small cinema here in Vic that had been eeking out some money by selling their pop-corn.