Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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So why do you believe it was the lockdown of the economy rather than the lockdown of the borders that had the effect.
Back to Taiwan-locked down the borders but not businesses and it worked.
South Korea borders locked down and only targeted lock downs around clusters and it worked.
 
@drron wondering where do you get those figures from?

I've had a look at Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,920,500 Cases and 320,675 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer & they have Finland at 33 & Norway at 40 for Highest Deaths Per Million. Sweden they have ranked at number 8 & Australia at 110.

Just wondering if I'm looking at inaccurate data.
 
So why do you believe it was the lock down of the economy rather than the lock down of the borders that had the effect.
I actually did not state that.

They were heading in the wrong direction. Lock down was a key reason they turned it around. Without lock down the bodies would be building up still.

On 12 March, a national lockdown was announced, effective from 18:00 the same day . Border controls as part of lock down were rolled out between March 13 and 16.


Lock down can be done in various ways. Various activities can be ceased or not. Closing borders is just one part of how a lock down can be performed. Not everything has been to be shutdown. ie NZ Lock downed more tightly than Australia did. Italy, NYC etc also locked down very tightly.

Lock downs can be done also by states, regions or even municipalities (ie in the USA a number of Mayors control what lock down measures are in place or not)

Secondly many things can be locked down or not. ie Churches, military bases, sport, travel etc etc

Back to Taiwan-locked down the borders but not businesses and it worked.

Taiwan was the only country the world that specifically was waiting for a pandemic to emerge in China or nearby. But as you acknowledge they lock downed their borders. As they acted with extreme speed they needed less lock down measures.

South Korea borders locked down and only targeted lock downs around clusters and it worked
This is incorrect, South Korea has used a number of lock down measures at various times.

You may have missed what happened in South Korea recently when the activity of their night club districts was resumed. After the flare-up they then closed down more than 2100 bars and other nightspots. They did not just close down the affected bars/nightclubs. They locked down a region of them.
All South Korean military bases were on lock down in April despite only three soldiers testing positive for the virus.
Museums, libraries, stadiums, and concert venues were closed
Schools were closed.
Major festivals were cancelled.
Churches and religious services were ceased and not just at the Shincheonji Church of Jesus.

South Korea acted quickly and that meant they did not have to deploy more severe and extensive lock down measures.
South Korea was also able to deploy mass testing quickly. This allowed them do do what many other countries including Australia could not do very early which was deploy mass testing. There is no point saying that Australia should have done that as we simply did not have the capability to do that then. We do now.

Countries may be short of test kits, countries may be short of PPE, countries may be short of ICU beds, countries may be short of ventilators but all countries depending on their circumstances have the capability to if they choose to quickly introduce various lock down measures (though obviously much harder for poorer contries with crowed areas), one of which is international, regional border or even city (ie Wuhan) border controls.

If a country/region has been slow to act and the cough is hitting the fan as in NYC, or say Italy, then more extreme lock down measures are required if your goal is to save lives and minimise other Covid 19 related health problems..

Norway was not as quick as some, but quicker than many and so they had to introduce more measures than South Korea. with no lock down measures their death rate would be more like Sweden's where only mild control measures have been deployed.
South Korea was slower than Taiwan to act and so they had to introduce more measures than Taiwan.
 
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Best chart to see trends in my mind is this one which looks at rolling new cases over last 7 days versus total cases

I've selected Sweden, Norway, Finland and Australia and Singapore as comparators

Shows a very clear impact of lockdowns kicking in - other than Sweden and Singapore

Can you do it without. Maybe. But after SARS and MERS the Taiwan and South Korean population is willing to wear masks and be temperature tested everywhere...
We seem to struggle to even get people to download an app.
 
Shows a very clear impact of lockdowns kicking in - other than Sweden and Singapore

You actually shouldn’t use the total data in Singapore as a good representation of impact of lockdowns or otherwise. There are two very distinct things happening in Singapore with COVID-19 - with little correlation between them. If you looked at Singapore statistics without foreign workers housed in dormitories (i.e. what’s happening broadly in the community) the graph would be very similar to what you see in Australia - showing the impact of the lockdown.

The dormitory situation shows the impact of blind spots and in terms of the graph of number infected - is probably not that unlike NYC, etc, the main difference, so far, a much lower death rate, perhaps due to the age profile of the particular population.
 
Another factor in the “close the borders” vs lockdown discussion is that in March, 700,000 Australian residents returned to Australia on international flights. Whilst a good proportion of those would have both departed and returned in March, that’s still a significant number to manage and control.
 
Best chart to see trends in my mind is this one which looks at rolling new cases over last 7 days versus total cases

I've selected Sweden, Norway, Finland and Australia and Singapore as comparators

Shows a very clear impact of lockdowns kicking in - other than Sweden and Singapore

Can you do it without. Maybe. But after SARS and MERS the Taiwan and South Korean population is willing to wear masks and be temperature tested everywhere...
We seem to struggle to even get people to download an app.
But does it?
go to the Australian figures only and it breaks it down by State.
Severe lockdowns came into force on 20/3 in Tasmania,24/3 in WA,SA and NT.
The curves for those states begin their downturn in daily cases by the 30th of March.That represents cases actually acquired from the 16/3 given the incubation period of Covid.So hard to be definite that it was the lockdown that was the only factor.

And Tasmania with the earliest State border closure is one of 2 states that then had an uptick in cases.But that was due to the NWRH cluster which was due to local transmission.The Ruby Princess pax who preumably the first people in this cluster were known before the border closure.

Victoria is the only other state with an uptick of cases after the initial fall off and apart from border closure has probably the most severe lockdown.
An QLD's border closure was on 26/3,downturn on 30/3 so the border closure seems to have played no part in causing the turn down in daily cases.

Then NZ cases.
1589923839015.png.

First down turn 28/3 with an uptick 3/4 and resumed down turn from 7/4.
Almost half of NZ cases until 3/4 were in people returning from OS.About a third of those in the next week.But until 7/4 only 4 of those OS cases had come in after The lockdown on 26/s. 2 on 27/3 and 2 on 28/3. from 8/4 to 12/4 it continued to be about a third of cases in people that had come from OS but the majority had arrived before the lock down with only 8 arriving after the lock down.from there the cases from OS kept diminishing.
So a significant proportion of NZ new cases in this time had been in people arriving from OS before the lock down.
Those figures can be accessed from here.

So you really do need to dig into the figures to see what is actually happening.Not quite as simple as it is being presented.
 
You actually shouldn’t use the total data in Singapore as a good representation of impact of lockdowns or otherwise. There are two very distinct things happening in Singapore with COVID-19 - with little correlation between them. If you looked at Singapore statistics without foreign workers housed in dormitories (i.e. what’s happening broadly in the community) the graph would be very similar to what you see in Australia - showing the impact of the lockdown.

The dormitory situation shows the impact of blind spots and in terms of the graph of number infected - is probably not that unlike NYC, etc, the main difference, so far, a much lower death rate, perhaps due to the age profile of the particular population.
Yes being a group of migrant workers they probably all not the risk group age wise, plus are also likely to be low in other risk factors like being morbidly obese etc.
 
Victoria partly had an uptick in cases simply because they massively increased the volume of testing that they were doing to try and find all the cases. Population wise one quarter but with half of Australia's tests.

Secondly as they had late but huge cluster in Cedar meats. That could have pccurred at any time, but was late on the timeline.

Overall case rate is still less than many states/territories per population.

One huge cluster in Northern Tassie also skews the figures there. Take it out and the stats look vastly different.

Russia USA all looked good till they started testing in volume. Rudsian deaths look low but they record cause of death differently than most countries.

With various lock downs controls depending when they are introduced, and how well they are introduced, you will see different effects. UK was for example very poor at many things and so kept growing.
 
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Yes being a group of migrant workers they probably all not the risk group age wise, plus are also likely to be low in other risk factors like being morbidly obese etc.

Yes, they do quite physically demanding work in high humidity, so would have a reasonable degree of fitness,and they used to congregate in large numbers (pre COVID) not far from where I live, most of them seem the exact opposite of morbidly obese!
 
But does it?
go to the Australian figures only and it breaks it down by State.
Severe lockdowns came into force on 20/3 in Tasmania,24/3 in WA,SA and NT.
The curves for those states begin their downturn in daily cases by the 30th of March.That represents cases actually acquired from the 16/3 given the incubation period of Covid. So hard to be definite that it was the lockdown that was the only factor.
(my bolding)

So you really do need to dig into the figures to see what is actually happening.Not quite as simple as it is being presented.

I agree that the data and its analysis is not simple, and I doubt that even a Professor of Statistics could do it as it an extraordinarily difficult modelling problem with way too many variables to be precise. Plus they are mixed with other factors such as social distancing, handwashing etc. I mean when did most people start social distancing and washing their hands properly? It would have been a progressive thing, but certainly indiviuals were acting well before 20 March. For example one poster on 2 March on AFF reported:

At nearest woollies yesterday afternoon
  • 2/3 toilet roll shelves empty
  • zero liquid 1L antibacterial hand soap (small quantity of 375ml remaining)
  • zero hand sanitiser (any size)
  • zero antibacterial wipes
  • rice shelf almost empty
Others are reporting no eggs on the shelf at some stores.


Lock downs. It was not just a single switch when it was turned on and especially in Australia as well as in the example of Tasmania that you raised. Certainly many measures were in place prior to 20th March in Tasmania.

A non-exhaustive list affecting Tasmania includes:
  • For example one measure has been a focus on gatherings including events.
    • On 15 March gatherings of 500 or more were banned. This was progressively tightened and then tightened again and again. ie 18 March it was reduced to 100. Then smaller and smaller
  • Border controls:
    • On 1 February 2020, Australia banned the entry of foreign nationals from mainland China, and ordered its own returning citizens from China to self-quarantine for 14 days
    • Australia subsequently imposed travel bans on Iran (1 March),[280] South Korea (5 March),[281] and Italy (11 March)
    • 15th March, all arrivals into Australia by air or sea, who have travelled internationally, will be required to self-isolate for 14 days . As self-isolation was flawed by the honesty of the individual and that people could still fly across Australia before isolating this was tightened to hotel quarantine.
    • 15 March. The government suspended all cruise ship visits to the state's ports
  • MONA closed on 16 March
  • On 17 March, Tasmania declared a public health emergency
  • On 19 March, all "non-essential" travellers to the state, including returning residents, were subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine
  • Work from home. A survey released by Gartner HR on 20 March revealed 88 per cent of organisations had already encouraged or required employees to work from home due to coronavirus. So before 20th March many people were locking down at home.

Clouding things too is that progressively after 20 March that various other measures kept being introduced. ie 25th April Anzac Day. All marches and ceremonies were not held apart from private ones or very small official ones
 
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A study from a collaboration between the Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and the state Victorian Health Department had just released an initial report on CV 19 spread in Victoria to date. It has not yet undergone formal and rigorous peer review by other scientists, nor been published in a journal. That means the findings need to be treated with caution, as it is possible errors could be discovered.
Key points:
  • A 75-person cluster erupted in March and has been linked to several social venue
  • A hospitality worker was identified as a "super-spreader" after working at three separate events, all of which led to other clusters of cases,
  • Two clusters, one including 27 people, are linked to healthcare facilities in Melbourne
  • At least four clusters highlighted in the Doherty Institute research are linked to cruise ship passengers.
  • Just 9.8 per cent of COVID-19 cases linked to travel came from Asia, while 41 per cent came from north-west Europe
  • Only 34 clusters were identified that link people who caught the virus overseas and people who picked up the virus in Australia.
  • A "viral family tree" built for the study shows Victoria's virus comes from all over the world: there is no "Victorian strain"
  • This shows just how much Victoria was 'peppered' early on with cases and how they were largely ended through response measures and the effects of physical distancing," Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton wrote online.
  • Quarantines, lockdowns and quick detective work has stopped most introduced cases spreading too far. The average size of the clusters was just five people.




 
Health authorities in Queensland are trying to understand how a woman in Brisbane acquired COVID-19 following her positive test for the virus two months after returning from overseas.

The woman is in her 70s and lives on Brisbane's north side.

She was diagnosed with the virus overnight, two months after returning from India via Singapore.

Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said authorities believed it was "most likely" that the woman contracted the virus in India and has had the condition ever since.

"She returned from India via Singapore two months ago and has now tested positive after developing some mild respiratory symptoms," Dr Young said.

"At this stage, we're not sure whether that is a persistent case or whether she's acquired it here.


 
Health authorities in Queensland are trying to understand how a woman in Brisbane acquired COVID-19 following her positive test for the virus two months after returning from overseas.

The woman is in her 70s and lives on Brisbane's north side.

She was diagnosed with the virus overnight, two months after returning from India via Singapore.

Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said authorities believed it was "most likely" that the woman contracted the virus in India and has had the condition ever since.

"She returned from India via Singapore two months ago and has now tested positive after developing some mild respiratory symptoms," Dr Young said.

"At this stage, we're not sure whether that is a persistent case or whether she's acquired it here.



That’s the same as our sole UK positive person in the last month. I heard today that SA hasn’t had any community spread in 61 days.
 
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Health authorities in Queensland are trying to understand how a woman in Brisbane acquired COVID-19 following her positive test for the virus two months after returning from overseas.

The woman is in her 70s and lives on Brisbane's north side.

She was diagnosed with the virus overnight, two months after returning from India via Singapore.

Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said authorities believed it was "most likely" that the woman contracted the virus in India and has had the condition ever since.

"She returned from India via Singapore two months ago and has now tested positive after developing some mild respiratory symptoms," Dr Young said.

"At this stage, we're not sure whether that is a persistent case or whether she's acquired it here.


Sounds unusual to develop symptoms 2 months after her suggested acquisition of the virus in India. Isn't 60 days longer than the previous longest suggested incubation period.After 14 days it is estimated that only 1 in 10000 high risk patients are missed.The longest incubation period reported that I could find was 27 days.

Add to that a few days before the Aged Care Worker in Rockhampton developed symptoms and then tested positive she had travelled to Brisbane.Suggests there is community transmission occurring in Brisbane.

And with due respect the initial modelling of the pandemic by the Imperial College Oxford has been found to be inaccurate and vastly overestimated cases and deaths. Modelling is not an exact science.The lead researcher of that modelling predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK changed his predictions but then underpredicted deaths.

"Ultimately, science is built on disagreement. When policymakers tell us that they’re ‘following the science’, that claim might overlook the fact that scientists don’t always agree on the best way forward – and that this lack of consensus is healthy.

Mathematical modeller Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths urges us to remember that, “instead of focusing on which model is correct, we should accept that one model cannot answer it all.” As one aphorism in the field states: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”."
 
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