Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

This case seems to be unusual, but not unknown for developing symptoms possibly well after being infected. Unless he was somehow much less likely infected after release and before flying (or even on the flight).

The man tested positive for COVID-19 overnight in Sydney after returning from Brisbane where he had served the mandatory hotel isolation period.

“We do believe they may have been infectious on the flight,” NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said.

“NSW Health is alerting all passengers and crew on the flight to monitor for symptoms,” she said.

Authorities are in the process of tracing all close contacts - including those who were seated in rows 31 to 35.

Dr Chant also defended hotel quarantine saying it is “an effective measure” despite the new case.
(My bolding)

So is this really a case where the Health authorities believe the person was actually likely to be infectious, or at they just being cautious in case he was infectious? Dr Chant's comments suggest to me the latter.

If Dr Chant believed he was infectious, would they not be testing every close contact rather than just asking them to monitor for symptoms? Now that tests are plentiful the current practice when someone is tested positive and thought to be infectious is that they test all close contacts, rather than just telling them to self-isolate and watch for symptoms which used to be more the practice when tests were in short supply.

Is this an instance something to be really alarmed at, or is just the type of thing with will happen from time to time and is actually low risk. He may well not be infectious at all.

On the other hand there will be outliers from time to time. So he could be an infectious outlier with enough viral load post 14 days to deliver an infectious dose to another person.

The real question is why was this fellow tested in NSW.They basically testing those with respiratory symptoms but testing is not mandatory.

COVID-19 (coronavirus)

Official information about COVID-19 (coronavirus) for residents, businesses and visitors to New South Wales.

www.nsw.gov.au

If he had symptoms and presented in NSW then it is quite likely he was infectious on the plane.As well they have not suggested all on that flight just monitor symptoms.It states that those in Rows 31-35 are close contacts and they will be traced and presumably tested.

Again to me it appears likely he had symptoms when he checked out of the quarantine hotel and either didn't tell anyone of his symptoms or if he did QLD officials failed to do so.

I still think SA is doing the right thing testing all those in mandatory quarantine after coming from OS at the beginning and end of the quarantine period.After all these are people at higher risk of having Covid 19 than the general population.

 

[Archphoto]

Is it possible he had the infection earlier (asymptomatic) and this is a "false" positive?

We had a case here in SA of a UK migrant isolating after returning for the mandatory 2 weeks at the beginning of March and he was tested over a month later as he was showing symptoms - it ended our 15-day streak of no new infections about 10 days ago I think. Additionally, we now have 0 cases - everyone has recovered, so was he infected, had no idea and a "shadow" of this picked up when he was feeling unwell for something unrelated about 6 weeks later?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I still think SA is doing the right thing testing all those in mandatory quarantine after coming from OS at the beginning and end of the quarantine period.After all these are people at higher risk of having Covid 19 than the general population.

I agree that now tests are abundant that this should be done. Indeed tests are so abundant that evidently 10 million tests that Twiggy brokered have been sent off to National stockpile.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is it possible he had the infection earlier (asymptomatic) and this is a "false" positive?

We had a case here in SA of a UK migrant isolating after returning for the mandatory 2 weeks at the beginning of March and he was tested over a month later as he was showing symptoms - it ended our 15-day streak of no new infections about 10 days ago I think. Additionally, we now have 0 cases - everyone has recovered, so was he infected, had no idea and a "shadow" of this picked up when he was feeling unwell for something unrelated about 6 weeks later?

I believe from what I read at the time that he is a genuine example of someone just staying positive for an unusually long period of time. He also caught Covid 19 in the UK and so would have travelled out here positive, but the opinion was that he would not have been infectious when he did so.

 

[OZDUCK]

In W.A, by doing blood tests, they have just identified 2 people who have recovered from Covid 19 without knowing that they had been infected. One was a Cruise Ship pax who had become infected and recovered before she returned to Australia. The other had been a casual contact of a previously known case. As others have said, the more testing the better.

Unfortunately, one of the 7 remaining infected persons has become sick enough to require hospital treatment.

 

[RooFlyer]

We hope good control No new cases for a week and prior to that, an inter-state arrival already in isolation ....

Edit: Groan ... one new case tonight ... Nth Tas, gent in his 70s ...

Oh, Ruby (from the Oz on-line):

A man in his 70s who was the first coronavirus case diagnosed in Tasmania for a week was on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship.

The man, from northern Tasmania, brings the island’s total cases to 226.

“The man is a close contact of a previously confirmed case and had also travelled on the Ruby Princess,” Public Health Director Dr Mark Veitch said on Saturday.

He was in quarantine when he was most likely to have been infectious, Dr Veitch said.

 

[moa999]

I believe from what I read at the time that he is a genuine example of someone just staying positive for an unusually long period of time.

Possible also that the infection can get low enough to test negative, but then come back

5 cases in the US Navy of this possibly occuring (or them catching it again which would put paid to any immunity theory)

Sailors on sidelined carrier get coronavirus for the second time

Five US sailors on an aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak test positive for the virus for the second time and are taken off the ship, according to the US Navy.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Possible also that the infection can get low enough to test negative, but then come back

5 cases in the US Navy of this possibly occuring (or them catching it again which would put paid to any immunity theory)

Sailors on sidelined carrier get coronavirus for the second time

Five US sailors on an aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak test positive for the virus for the second time and are taken off the ship, according to the US Navy.

www.abc.net.au

Yes I posted that story in a different thread. Also testing in the USA is viewed to not be as reliable as say Australia.

 

[drron]

So just who says testing in the USA is not as reliable as here.And exactly which test in the USA are they talking about.There are quite a few tests being regularly used and now mostly from private firms.
And if you are talking about the initial CDC test that was fixed early in February.

 

[TheRealTMA]

So just who says testing in the USA is not as reliable as here.And exactly which test in the USA are they talking about.There are quite a few tests being regularly used and now mostly from private firms.
And if you are talking about the initial CDC test that was fixed early in February.

Many. A simple google search brings up many articles on recent concerns with testing in the USA.

e.g. FDA probes accuracy issue with Abbott's rapid coronavirus test

 

[DC3]

... FDA probes accuracy issue with Abbott's rapid coronavirus test

That article certainly does not read well.

 

[drron]

Though it is one of many tests and my reading suggests they found out why the number of false negatives and what ti do about it.
Also shows the FDA is assessing those tests.
What do we know of the tests used here?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though it is one of many tests and my reading suggests they found out why the number of false negatives and what ti do about it.
Also shows the FDA is assessing those tests.
What do we know of the tests used here?

The USA has made widespread use of the antibody test. Australia has not taken this route as on checking there have been a number of questions about how reliable they are and morseo early on.

In Australia, the point-of-care serology tests (POCTs) are not being used in a widespread way due concern on accuracy. 1 million were bought were, but have not been deployed.

16 May

Government's finger-prick tests 'of limited use' in diagnosing COVID-19

The Federal Health Department concedes 1 million finger-prick testing kits, bought at the height of Australia's response to the coronavirus outbreak, have limited use in diagnosing COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

11May

Post-market evaluation of serology-based point of care tests

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the TGA has expedited the approval (with conditions) of COVID-19 tests including tests intended for laboratory use and those intended for use by specified health professionals at the point of care.

www.tga.gov.au

There have also been stories on some of the private lab tests developed in the USA not having been verified with control tests of sufficient sample size.

 

[drron]

Yes the USA has developed some antibody tests but they are being used to try and determine the numbers having had the virus.We are starting to do that as well.It is not being used as the primary test for detecting positive cases.

And when i started working in early April there were up to 30% false negatives with the test being used at that time.

I understand many here dislike the USA but that should not constantly be used when talking about this virus.There are many reasons the USA for that performance and many of them local such as in NYC where the virus is the European version predominantly v the West coast which predominantly is the Wuhan virus.Then in NYC mass gatherings were actually encouraged into March.Social distancing on the subway was ignored until just recently.Initially people discharged from hospital with covid without a home were directed to stay in Nursing homes-the Governor recently ad mitted to giving this order.so 50% of the deaths have been in nursing homes.

Another problem is many want to use raw numbers for US cases and deaths rather than say deaths per million where the USA comes in number nine rather than the worst.

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

Yet when they talk about testing they use the rate of testing rather than the numbers.Maybe because of this.

Testing rate for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022 | Statista

As of December 22, 2022, Austria had performed the most COVID-19 tests per one million population among the countries most severely impacted by the pandemic.

www.statista.com

.

Testing in Australia for COVID-19 (coronavirus) | covid19data.com.au

How does Australia's testing rate compare with other countries? Total number of COVID-19 tests in each state and territory.

www.covid19data.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes the USA has developed some antibody tests but they are being used to try and determine the numbers having had the virus.We are starting to do that as well.

Due the work of Doherty Institute these tests are largely being sidelined for now in Australia and may now be used instead later to determine perhaps how widespread Covid 19 has been. Using them now for this purpose is very questionable as the work of Doherty Institute’ has shown that it can take an extended time for an infected person to develop sufficient antibodies to test positive.

But even that use may well not be possible as per:

"As yet not enough is known about the adequacy of the COVID-19 immune response or duration of immunity. Whether there is a role for these tests in determining immunity for return to work purposes or for population-level surveillance remains to be seen. ""

Post-market evaluation of serology-based point of care tests

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the TGA has expedited the approval (with conditions) of COVID-19 tests including tests intended for laboratory use and those intended for use by specified health professionals at the point of care.

www.tga.gov.au

In addition some of the POCT that have been offered for sale in Australia, or to the Australian Government, have had insufficient testing done on them. Some are known to be very inaccurate.

 

[drron]

But how are we going to improve antibody testing for the future if we don't use them.
Your article is basically referring to the use for diagnosis and they are unreliable for that.However antibody production knowledge is essential in the production of a vaccine and will be in use by those investigating this in Australia.

I believe WA is also using them to assess the prevalence of Covid infections.
The TGA also grants exemptions for the use of these tests.

AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

COVID-19 testing in Australia - information for health professionals

Find information on the different types of COVID-19 tests and how we assess them and monitor their performance.

www.tga.gov.au

And the tests approved for use in Australia.

COVID-19 test kits

Tests approved by TGA for inclusion in the ARTG for legal supply in Australia.

www.tga.gov.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I understand many here dislike the USA

I would not confuse how some regard the performance of a particular leader in the USA with respect to Covid 19 (or even more generally) with whether they like or dislike the USA. They are different things.




Personally I have a number of USA friends and professionally I have worked and still work with many people from the USA. Many of these seem to have very similar views to myself about said leader's performance on Covid 19.

There are many things I love about the USA, but there are also some things I dislike ( gun control, healthcare etc). But I can say similar things about many countries including Australia. Overall I think that our balance is much better here, but I will be biased by having been born and bred here.

I enjoy my travels there, but would not want to be a permanent resident there. But I can also say that about most countries I travel to. Though the USA is vast and very diverse and so there are some very nice parts that I would be most comfortable in. There are also parts of Australia that I would not want to reside in

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But how are we going to improve antibody testing for the future if we don't use them.

I did not say that they were not be used at all, just that there are questions and unknowns as to how they can be best be used and that there are limitations at present with their use.

They are certainly at present not the instant reliable test that some hoped that they would be, and are not yet as useful as they were hoped that they would be. They are certainly not yet a "game changer".

This does not mean this type of test may not yet become more reliable, or more useful.
How Covid 19 acts within the human body over time will also be a factor in how useful they can be for some applications.

If the tests are improved and if immunity is proven to last (for whatever period) then they will become a much more useful test.

 

[drron]

On the other hand what is the evidence for lockdowns.The best feature is to close borders.Those countries that closed borders to all non citizens have done better that stopped flights but still let in non citizens-North America and Europe.

Some do wonder whether going further than that plus mask wearing,social distancing and strict testing of contacts and those with symptoms really adds much more to risk prevention.The exceptions would be with known clusters such as Daegu in South Korea,Wuhan and our own North West Tasmania cluster.

For example there really is no evidence that schools are a hot bed of transmission.The QLD CMO has now admitted that-it was done to scare people.So many kids will be left behind academically and real pressure was put on parents working from home just to scare people.

Jeannette Young: who is the woman leading Queensland's fight against COVID-19?

Brisbane Times sat down with Dr Young to find out how she became the Chief Health Officer, why Queensland schools have remained mostly closed, and just how fearful she was about COVID-19.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

Around the world there is little evidence that more severe lockdowns get a better result than those with less restrictions.Here in Australia Tasmania has had the most severe restrictions yet has the highest case rates and mortality.
New Zealand had more severe restrictions than Australia but have done no better.Yet they are easing restrictions faster than us.

Some go further.This by a statistician.

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

Also see this important update: Bad Arguments For Lockdowns & The Burden Of Proof. Also: US States Analysis. The US has a little more than 4% of the world population. Yet, throughout the end o…

wmbriggs.com

And then you have in the midst of a severe lockdown someone denying one of the things that seems to have worked.This by the NYC Health Commissioner who was telling people in March to go to mass gatherings.

NYC health head rejected NYPD mask plea: ‘I don’t give two rats’ asses about your cops’

New York City’s health commissioner blew off an urgent NYPD request for 500,000 surgical masks as the coronavirus crisis mounted — telling a high-ranking police official that “I d…

nypost.com

 

[Hvr]

Scientists tried to predict COVID-19. Here's why they missed it

It was the fish that really proved it was impossible to predict the next pandemic.

www.smh.com.au

It was the fish that really proved it was impossible to predict the next pandemic.

The scientists purchased every fish off the boats. Then they tested them for viruses.

To their shock, every single fish was infected with multiple viruses that had never been seen anywhere else.

It suggests that what we have seen is just the beginning of what could happen if (when?) other viruses cross over from animals to humans.