Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Another update of the Outbreak Graphic:

 

[JohnM]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this, but here goes.

I, PJM, brother and SIL are booked on a Coral Expeditions voyage Broome-Fremantle over 12 nights commencing in late October.

Today I received the 'SailSafe' pack from CE.

8 pages of description about what they are going to be doing, and what they are requiring of pax.

Required to: visit GP and complete a health declaration, they advise 7 days isolation before departure, mandatory Covid PCR test 72-24h before departure.

The P4 graphic would warm the heart of every callow new grad in the OHS&E department of every government department across this wide, brown land:



Whoa! - onboard: no buffets (YES, YES, YES! ). In case anyone missed that, I DETEST (most) buffets.

BUT: nowhere did they ask whether you have been vaccinated, or will be fully vaccinated, by departure.

Yeh, yeh, I know - a vaccinated person can be a carrier. But it kind of has me wondering when some value will be put on vaccination.

And - not knocking the principle, but just how much of The Fear of God is enough to ever let us ever get us out of this mess?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Age and Herald Sun just reporting meetings held this evening in regards on where to go next. Potential announcement tomorrow arvo.

I’m a tad nervous about this one. More than happy to sit out 3 more days. However the consequences are quite dire for many people should this roll on past Monday.

What exactly are the plans should a state be locked down for a month? It’s not impossible as we have seen here. It’s going to be a sad outcome for many.

Longer lockdown likely as alert raised over positive case who visited NSW

Victoria’s public health team is leaning strongly towards a lockdown extension as alert is raised over Melburnian who visited locations in NSW last week.

www.theage.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From The Age:

Breaking: Another Melbourne aged care facility sent into lockdown​

By Rachael Dexter​

An aged care facility in Melbourne’s east has been sent into lockdown this evening after a staff member was confirmed as a primary contact of a confirmed case.

Menarock LIFE aged care in Heathmont went into full lockdown just before 6pm tonight, according to an all-staff email seen by The Age.

“I can assure you we are doing everything possible to minimise any effect on our close-knit community,” the email from facility management reads.
When contacted directly, the facility declined to comment.

The Victorian Department of Health has been approached for more detail on the case.

It follows lockdowns at BlueCross Western Gardens aged care facility in Sunshine and Arcare Maidstone Aged Care Facility.

 

[oz_mark]

View attachment 249392

The WHO would rather we called it the Delta variant!

 

[jakeseven7]

Some more information on the new local case in Perth HQ.... and unlike SA, WA Health ‘claims’ to have used proper occupational engineers to test the hotel’s ventilation system, not just Bob from the aircon company

PS the WA CHO was allowed out of his cell by the WA premier too. Looks a bit pale

——

WA local coronavirus transmission reported in hotel quarantine​

WA Health confirmed the virus was transmitted between two guests in neighbouring rooms at the Pan Pacific Hotel.

Genome sequencing data confirmed they had the same sequence of virus.

It is not yet known how the transmission occurred.

Fresh COVID breach in WA hotel quarantine system as guest infected

A man in his 50s acquires coronavirus in a hotel in Perth in yet another breach of WA's hotel quarantine system.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

And some more information on the NSW exposure sites as well. Get vaccinated people

——

COVID-19 case traveled to NSW South Coast and Goulburn for camping trip​

Health authorities say a confirmed COVID-19 case travelled to several areas of NSW while potentially infectious, including Jervis Bay on the south coast and Goulburn in the southern tablelands.

NSW Health issued an alert just before 9:00pm for several venues in Jervis Bay, Goulburn, Hyams Beach and Vincentia.

The person, who reported the onset of symptoms on May 25, drove back to Melbourne on May 24 and got tested on May 31. Victoria's stay-at-home measures took effect on May 27.

Anyone who visited an alerted venue at the relevant times must immediately and get tested and isolate.

Melbourne COVID-19 case went on camping trip in NSW, several areas on alert

NSW Health issues a COVID-19 alert after discovering a COVID-19 case from Melbourne visited several areas of the state while potentially infectious.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

Another update of the Outbreak Graphic:

View attachment 249388

I hope someone asks, because I am genuinely curious as to the opinion of Brett Sutton, why the government is projecting very clearly about the danger of "fleeting spread" yet the bars/pubs/clubs in and around Chapel St seem to have not generated any cases.

 

[admin]

I have asked @support about this, as I am not sure what is causing it.

A poorly setup SEO feature I added last week. Should be OK now. Apologies for that!

 

[nutwood]

I hope someone asks, because I am genuinely curious as to the opinion of Brett Sutton, why the government is projecting very clearly about the danger of "fleeting spread" yet the bars/pubs/clubs in and around Chapel St seem to have not generated any cases.

I suspect there's a lot more to the spread of this virus than <1.5 m for fifteen minutes and "oooh, this strain is more contagious".

 

[bcworld]

The WHO would rather we called it the Delta variant!

Actually this one is Kappa.

 

[Lynda2475]

And some more information on the NSW exposure sites as well

And yet again its is a person who had symptoms for 6 days before bothering to get tested. Ought to be fines f you fail to test within a timely manner of having symptoms (i.e. next day at the latest). Testing is free and available to all, unlike vaccination which is still unavailable to the majority of the populations.

 

[Lynda2475]

Wondering also if the "fleeting contact" isn't actually a case of droplets on surfaces, then people touching their eyes/face? Someone with symptoms, coughs into their hand not elbow, doesn't hand sanitizer then touches a counter in the Telstra shop, or items/s on the shelf in the supermarket.

People who don't bother to check in using QR codes, probably aren't likely to have good hyenine either.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Wondering also if the "fleeting contact" isn't actually a case of droplets on surfaces, then people touching their eyes/face? Someone with symptoms, coughs into their hand not elbow, doesn't hand sanitizer then touches a counter in the Telstra shop, or items/s on the shelf in the supermarket.

People who don't bother to check in using QR codes, probably aren't likely to have good hyenine either.

That Telstra shop is very small and very...intimate. Think if you are shopping for a new phone, most people also pick up the display phones in store anyway. So there is possible transmission from surface contamination, although unlikely. It's a small shop, close quarters contact. I'm not surprised it would spread there.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I hope someone asks, because I am genuinely curious as to the opinion of Brett Sutton, why the government is projecting very clearly about the danger of "fleeting spread" yet the bars/pubs/clubs in and around Chapel St seem to have not generated any cases.

I think one factor is to remember that not all those infected with CV19 are equally contagious.

Most the cases are generated from only 2 out of 7 people. The majority do not transmit at all, or if they do only with extended contact (ie living in the same household and in particular partners/ children.....those that you get very close to).


So with the bars/pubs/clubs in and around Chapel St it is probably just good luck that that the cases that visited them were at the less contagious end of the spectrum.


Bars/pubs/clubs have definitely featured strongly during the pandemic, though perversely not so much in Melbourne.

ie Crossroads Hotel and the pub at Avalon.

More recently in Taiwan the the "tea-houses" were central to their current wave.

Taipei’s Covid-19 spike traced back to hostess teahouses

At least 516 of the 900 people who tested positive for the coronavirus in Wanhua district had links to one or more of its 176 hostess teahouses.

www.scmp.com

With one of the South Korean spikes it was driven via their nightclub district.

"Fleeting contact" spread from stranger to stranger is probably due to super-spreaders. Those generating very high viral load, and possibly who are aerosolising the virus as well.

In the second wave the briefest contacts that I can recall were ones like the customers of the Butcher Club (a butcher, and not a nighctlub). So a time of only minutes of a customer buying meat, but talking to each other.

These fleeting contacts now seem to be just where customers have coincided in space, but without interaction. But again are the minority and not the norm.


However in at least one case the fleeting contact now looks to not be positive.



Caveat: I assume they will retest again, and if so might still test positive.. It will depend on whether the first or second test gave the false result.

 

[blackcat20]

You just know Victoria is going to extend lockdown unfortunately. The media are starting to leak out information to condition folk that another week or two is on the cards

Someone on the radio this morning said a month! No thanks. A week I can handle, even if it does ruin our travel plans. But a month where most cases are already isolating is overkill.

 

[bcworld]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399861410209878019

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Very high test numbers again with 51,033 tests reported..

 

[Must...Fly!]

"Fleeting contact" spread from stranger to stranger is probably due to super-spreaders. Those generating very high viral load, and possibly who are aerosolising the virus as well.

I've no doubt super spreaders exist. They have done since the start of the pandemic. However to pretend this is all due to a scary new variant is, to me, insulting to the public and just designed to instill fear. For example the South Korean super spreaders very early in the piece.

An analysis of three Covid-19 outbreaks: how they happened and how they can be avoided

An office, a restaurant and a bus were the settings for multiple infections that have been studied in detail by health authorities. Their conclusions offer valuable lessons for the deescalation process

english.elpais.com

No Indian/Delta/Gamma/whatever variant there...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I've no doubt super spreaders exist. They have done since the start of the pandemic. However to pretend this is all due to a scary new variant is, to me, insulting to the public and just designed to instill fear. For example the South Korean super spreaders very early in the piece.

An analysis of three Covid-19 outbreaks: how they happened and how they can be avoided

An office, a restaurant and a bus were the settings for multiple infections that have been studied in detail by health authorities. Their conclusions offer valuable lessons for the deescalation process

english.elpais.com

No Indian/Delta/Gamma/whatever variant there...

I think you misinterpreted my post. I did not claim at all that superspreading is new and only in the latest Melbourne outbreak. . Indeed I gave examples from the Vic Second Wave, South Korea, Taiwan and the Kappa (Indian Variant ) Virus was not involved in any of them.

The 2 out of 7 figure is since the start of the pandemic. So it has always been the situation that a minority of people generate the majority of cases. ie Superspreaders.


The main difference in this current outbreak in Melbourne is the Kappa Variant. And this is in an environment when contact tracing , testing etc are all more efficient.

And with the Kappa the key difference too seems to be a number of people (not all) have passed on the virus in only a day. This is new.

The "fleeting contact" spread has not been confirmed, but the contact tracing is currently indicating that it seems to be occurring. Though as in my earlier post one of these has now tested negative.