Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

Yes, on 8th May.

Nope on 22nd May

 

[straitman]

[mod hat] A reminder to a few people here to stick to comments about the the topic and to reframe from making comments about others. [/mod hat]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on Epping North Woolworths, it is worth noting that on 22nd May it was reported by Vic DHHS:

The Department thanks Woolworths for their assistance in clarifying the correct location and quickly arranging for staff testing.​

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Anyone who was at the Woolworths Epping North supermarket, corner Epping Road and Lyndarum Drive (2 Lyndarum Drive), Epping (North), on 8 May between 5.40pm and 6.38pm, must get tested and isolate until they get a negative result.​

​

As of this morning, 13 individuals linked to the new exposure site have been identified and are getting tested. ​

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Public health officials are also working closely with Woolworths using customer data to identify other customers in the store.​

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And on 23 May

​

There has been a strong community response to calls for testing in Epping following the announcement of a wastewater detection in the area and the identification of a new exposure site.​

​

Anyone who was at the Woolworths Epping North supermarket, corner Epping Road and Lyndarum Drive (2 Lyndarum Drive), Epping (North), on 8 May between 5.40pm and 6.38pm, must get tested and isolate until they get a negative result.​

​

13 individuals linked to this exposure site have been identified and tested with 10 returning negative results so far. ​

​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There is a 5th case reported but it will be in tomorrow's numbers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Gov confirms:

Male in his 60's confirmed as fifth case.

Has reported being symptomatic before the other cases (so presumably did not present for testing when he should have).

Cases have been genomically linked to SA outbreak.


More exposure sites are now expected to be added.

Plus there are private exposure sites that will not be published. ie a small workplace.

Wastewater testing acknowledged as flagging that there was a case to look for.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

By Bridget Judd ABC​

New restrictions to be implemented from 6:00pm tonight​

They include:

• Private gatherings at home will be limited to five people per day
• Public gatherings will be limited to 30 people
• Face masks will need to be worn indoors, unless an exemption applies

Mr Merlino said schools and workplaces remain open, and Victorians who live in Greater Melbourne can continue to travel to regional Victoria.

However, those restrictions will still apply — so if you're heading to a regional household from Melbourne, they must not have more than five visitors in the house that day, and you'll still need to wear a face mask.

 

[jakeseven7]

By Bridget Judd ABC​

New restrictions to be implemented from 6:00pm tonight​

They include:

• Private gatherings at home will be limited to five people per day
• Public gatherings will be limited to 30 people
• Face masks will need to be worn indoors, unless an exemption applies

Mr Merlino said schools and workplaces remain open, and Victorians who live in Greater Melbourne can continue to travel to regional Victoria.

However, those restrictions will still apply — so if you're heading to a regional household from Melbourne, they must not have more than five visitors in the house that day, and you'll still need to wear a face mask.

Seems reasonable.

I wonder if the 'knee jerk' states will dust off the slam borders shut button.....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

60 year old had a business interaction with the later case (detected earlier). This is presumed to be when transmission occurred.



No crossover with Epping North Woolworths as yet identified with any of the 5 cases..

All Woolworths staff from the earlier date have tested negative.

 

[Lynda2475]

Sutton said " the latest case was symptomatic on May 17, so the presumption was that he was infectious from May 15 — 48 hours prior."

That is a long time wandering around whilst infectious and symptomatic. Looks like he got tested because of being a close contact of the other cases, not through coming forward because was feeling unwell.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good to see that contact tracing so swiftly found, and then tested the 60 year old case.

ie Time from cluster of 4 to who infected them all done within a day.

Now to work back from the 60 year old.

 

[Lynda2475]

Good to see that contact tracing so swiftly found, and then tested the 60 year old case.

I wouldn't call over two weeks swift. Virus source is the SA arrival from start of the month, he wasn't picked up in any of the tracing related to that. It took a second outbreak he caused to find him.

Looks like far too complacent about using official check in app.

 

[jakeseven7]

Good to see that contact tracing so swiftly found, and then tested the 60 year old case.

ie Time from cluster of 4 to who infected them all done within a day.

Its good they found the link and hopefully that's the direct one as well so we don't have another mystery starting case, unlike the last couple of NSW ones where we still don't know where they came from. I'm sure with the 3 ring (2 ring depending on how you view the primary) it should be contained without a snap lockdown.

I was a little surprised VIC didn't do a snap lockdown actually....

 

[bcworld]

Looks like far too complacent about using official check in app.

What a ridiculous extrapolation. You think it should be mandatory for e.g. a supermarket to use this app....but you only suggest that people should be 'encouraged' to use it. I'm curious why you don't think it should be mandatory to check in at supermarkets? I already know the answer by the way, but it makes no sense.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Its good they found the link and hopefully that's the direct one as well so we don't have another mystery starting case, unlike the last couple of NSW ones where we still don't know where they came from. I'm sure with the 3 ring (2 ring depending on how you view the primary) it should be contained without a snap lockdown.

I was a little surprised VIC didn't do a snap lockdown actually....

Yes will all be contained soon enough. The method works.

With the method the actual number of cases largely gets down to luck as to whether there are highly infectious super-spreaders, and or asymptomatic spreaders involved or not. And also factors like whether there is a large family involved (ie as in the cluster with Pizza man) and how diligent people who have symptoms are in getting tested. However whatever the final number of cases the method has been shown to work since Oct, even if each state does it it to different extents, once a case is found.

ie Smile Buffalo had a super spreader in attendance and so that cluster had an initial surge, but was then swiftly controlled after that.

Symptomatic spreaders may muddy the waters and cause gaps, or jumps in extending an outbreak. ie That may well have been the case with the last NSW Outbreak where they have no clue as to how BBQ Man was infected.

 

[Lynda2475]

unlike the last couple of NSW ones where we still don't know where they came from

Fact check:

* only the last case is a mystery (BBQ guy - we know how the wife got it), but genomically linked.
* the previous 4 local clusters were not mystery cases all linked - 3 directly to HQ and the other Byron Bay case to the Qld Hen's party.
* the last unlinked case prior to BBQ guy was start of Jan and again genomically linked to Avalon.

So out of 44 local cases this year, only 2 were mystery (and not complete mysteries) - not the last couple.

 

[Lynda2475]

I'm curious why you don't think it should be mandatory to check in at supermarkets? I already know the answer by the way, but it makes no sense.

But I do think it should be mandatory to check in at supermarkets and have said so multiple times going back to last year. In NSW after restaurants/bars/clubs, gyms, places of worship Supermarkets/Bottlos have been the 4th most common infection point.

I have zero objection to checking in, and in fact do not give my business to any venue that doesnt have QR check-ins.

It has never made sense that Supermarkets havent been subject to mandatory check-in the way most other indoor venues have.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes will all be contained soon enough. The method works.

With the method the actual number of cases largely gets down to luck as to whether there are highly infectious super-spreaders, and or asymptomatic spreaders involved or not. And also factors like whether there is a large family involved (ie as in the cluster with Pizza man) and how diligent people who have symptoms are in getting tested. However whatever the final number of cases the method has been shown to work since Oct, even if each state does it it to different extents, once a case is found.

ie Smile Buffalo had a super spreader in attendance and so that cluster had an initial surge, but was then swiftly controlled after that.

Symptomatic spreaders may muddy the waters and cause gaps, or jumps in extending an outbreak. ie That may well have been the case with the last NSW Outbreak where they have no clue as to how BBQ Man was infected.

Yes agree, well hopefully the 2/3 rings will get them up to speed with the spread. I still wouldn't be super surprised if we saw a snap lockdown if another handful of cases turned up.... but with just a couple I think it will hopefully just be another Black Rock which was traced pretty quickly.

And luckily for NSW despite their multiple mystery cases, they haven't seemed to have spread regardless - even if it jumped a link and there were intermediary cases they couldn't find.

In fact the variants don't seem to be super easy to transmit anywhere based on experiences in NSW, QLD, WA and SA now!

 

[Lynda2475]

multiple mystery cases

Victoria overwhelmingly leads the community transmission and mystery case leaderboard. Vic has 3,763 community cases from unknown sources vs 451 for NSW but dont let facts get in the way.

 

[dajop]

In fact the variants don't seem to be super easy to transmit anywhere based on experiences in NSW, QLD, WA and SA now!

Anywhere in Australia, at least. Too date.

Ask Singapore though. Certainly a different story. And Taiwan. Spread very quickly.

I’m becoming convinced that some of the success is due to management, but a dose of good or bad luck (i.e. presence or absence of a super spreader) can also make a huge difference.