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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

jakeseven7

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The family where the child was sent back to school are fighting back at the claims. If the media source is correct he was tested on October 10 and did not receive results.
"On October 10 a nurse visited the home to test the boy, with the family saying they never received the results from the boy's test, even after informing DHHS they were still waiting on the results.

Health authorities claimed the family was in quarantine at the time were “expressly told not to” send the boy to school.

But the family has now hit back at these claims, showing The Age an email sent from the DHHS on October 17 informing them they were free to leave isolation"

I’m not sure I buy this family’s story at all....not that it matters anymore as they’ve surrounded them, but they are yo-yoing massively on their narrative. Feels like they are just looking to excuse their mistake now.

There was just an interview on ABC radio that carefully explained as best they could what happened and it just seems they either wilfully or mistakenly did what they did....

Regardless and again, learnings have been taken to make it ‘even more clearer’ for people to understand.... (I read it more as less chance for people to make/choose their own mistakes!). NSW are also picking up these case management learnings which is great to see these things are now actively being shared.
 

lovetravellingoz

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It includes a batch of them yes, with more being processed today apparently.

The 1100 were announced as negative last night and so would be in the results announced this morning.

The additional 1400 from north metro were swabbed yesterday and so probably will too. Though some may have been taken late in the day and so might not all be in todays results. But that is normal.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I am pretty sure it includes them - there were media announcements last night. The concept was that businesses would be told a few days in advance. So yesterday there could have been an announcement that things would open on Wednesday and businesses would have been allowed to get staff in from today in order to prepare. I agree once they are told they are opening the government has to go ahead, unless there were catastrophic numbers - say over 30 withs lots of mystery cases.

today obviously is a fantastic result.
Yes if they stick to what they said retail and restaurants will be given a 2 day dark opening as notice get supplies etc in and all other preparation done.
 

Pushka

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Negative again in outlook I see.

The results today is good news, but yet you want to go with whatever is announced today will be last minute cancelled?
The news has been good with regards to achieving the required results and benchmark this last week but I am pretty sure there are many Victorians who were having similar thoughts yesterday about the retraction of the promised good news for Sunday, so - whatever.
 

blackcat20

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The news has been good with regards to achieving the required results and benchmark this last week but I am pretty sure there are many Victorians who were having similar thoughts yesterday about the retraction of the promised good news for Sunday, so - whatever.
A one day delay is not the end of the world, especially as the roadmap has the changes slated for November 1. You'd be crazy to have done a stock up (of food especially) before anything was announced.
 

lovetravellingoz

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The news has been good with regards to achieving the required results and benchmark this last week but I am pretty sure there are many Victorians who were having similar thoughts yesterday so - whatever.

It was clearly stated yesterday that after the results of the additional thousand tests were known that they would then assess the restrictions.

So your scenario of announcing easing today ...and then reversing them if the 1000 tests had bad news so that businesses would then have to through out goods is not a thought that most people would have been likely to have had as it is not what announced yesterday. Indeed it is expressly the opposite of what was announced.

So I doubt many Victorians had the same thoughts as you.
 

Pushka

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It was clearly stated yesterday that after the results of the additional thousand tests were known that they would then assess the restrictions.

So your scenario of announcing easing today ...and then reversing them if the 1000 tests had bad news so that businesses would then have to through out goods is not a thought that most people would have been likely to have had as it not what announced yesterday.

So I doubt many Victorians had the same thoughts as you.
Maybe check out different sources then. Not just those that confirm your thoughts. And of course the same applies to me 😉
 

lovetravellingoz

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Maybe check out different sources then. Not just those that confirm your thoughts. And of course the same applies to me 😉
I listened the Vic Gov presser yesterday. Andrews, Sutton and Weimar all spoke on it. It was quite clear on waiting for the test results. They are the ones who decide. So why would a different source be relevant?

Can you quote your source of restrictions being eased prior to the 1000 tests being known?
 

Pushka

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A one day delay is not the end of the world, especially as the roadmap has the changes slated for November 1. You'd be crazy to have done a stock up (of food especially) before anything was announced.
Agree, one day delay isn't the end of the world. Lets just hope that is all it is and based on today's figures, that's all it will be. And that moving forward, in any state, a sudden increase doesn't lead to general lockdowns but rather concentrated targeted ones. We have to manage this.
 

blackcat20

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Agree, one day delay isn't the end of the world. Lets just hope that is all it is and based on today's figures, that's all it will be. And that moving forward, in any state, a sudden increase doesn't lead to general lockdowns but rather concentrated targeted ones. We have to manage this.
I'd say now that our total active cases are quite low, then targeted attacks on outbreaks/clusters will be the way going forward. But that wasn't possible when we had thousands of active cases.
 

Pushka

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I listened the presser yeaterday. It was quite clear on waiting for the test results.

Can you quote your source of restrictions being eased prior to the 1000 tests being known?

Never said that.

You are not connecting the right dots. The issue of the 1000 tests bobbed up much later (ie yesterday) than the original statement that there was going to be good news released on Sunday if the positive test results were achieving the stated benchmark. And they did. But then came the announcement yesterday that the benchmark wasn't being used but was now pending the results of an extra 1000 tests.

Can you provide your source that I asked about earlier as to how Home isolations were now being contacted and managed correctly?
 
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Pushka

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I'd say now that our total active cases are quite low, then targeted attacks on outbreaks/clusters will be the way going forward. But that wasn't possible when we had thousands of active cases.
Yes agree. The brakes had to be put on and hard. Let's hope none of Australia experiences that again but that we can be effective and accepting that there will be outbreaks but rigorous testing and tracing along with isolation and social distancing will reduce the impact both in spread wise and on life in general.
 

dajop

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Never said that.

You are not connecting the right dots. The issue of the 1000 tests bobbed up much later (ie yesterday) than the original statement that there was going to be good news released on Sunday if the positive test results were achieving the stated benchmark. And they did.

The trouble is the one dimensional fake news media ( my goodness I’m sounding like a certain orange faced world leader, oh dear), most misreported that the benchmark was met . There always was two criteria in the benchmark - the first being rolling average number of cases and second the number of mystery cases over previous 14 days. The second criteria was not met, only the first. But the media seem to have ignored the second part, which arguably is the most important.

Sutton etc have always said that basically it was the story behind the cases (ie mystery cases or not) that was important not necessarily the rolling 14 day average of new cases.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Never said that.

You are not connecting the right dots. The issue of the 1000 tests bobbed up much later (ie yesterday) than the original statement that there was going to be good news released on Sunday if the positive test results were achieving the stated benchmark. And they did. But then came the announcement yesterday that the benchmark wasn't being used but was now pending the results of an extra 1000 tests.

Can you provide your source that I asked about earlier as to how Home isolations were now being contacted and managed correctly?

I did that yesterday. As stated it was by Weimar in the daily videos of the Vic Pressers. So just watch them.

As for connecting dots it would appear that your claim of today has no basis.
 

blackcat20

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The trouble is the one dimensional fake news media ( my goodness I’m sounding like a certain orange faced world leader, oh dear), most misreported that the benchmark was met . There always was two criteria in the benchmark - the first being rolling average number of cases and second the number of mystery cases over previous 14 days. The second criteria was not met, only the first. But the media seem to have ignored the second part, which arguably is the most important.

Sutton etc have always said that basically it was the story behind the cases (ie mystery cases or not) that was important not necessarily the rolling 14 day average of new cases.
The media has a lot to answer for, they've really been hammering the fact we met the target, when we did not. Also use of the word "deadline" instead of "target" when it comes to dates.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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The trouble is the one dimensional fake news media ( my goodness I’m sounding like a certain orange faced world leader, oh dear), most misreported that the benchmark was met . There always was two criteria in the benchmark - the first being rolling average number of cases and second the number of mystery cases over previous 14 days. The second criteria was not met, only the first. But the media seem to have ignored the second part, which arguably is the most important.

Sutton etc have always said that basically it was the story behind the cases (ie mystery cases or not) that was important not necessarily the rolling 14 day average of new cases.
The media has a lot to answer for, they've really been hammering the fact we met the target, when we did not. Also use of the word "deadline" instead of "target" when it comes to dates.
It was also mentioned here on this AFF thread in the past few days that Victoria met (or looks like meeting) the original targets/benchmarks by the original modelling date (before the Melbourne Step 3 date was moved earlier and then split) when it didn’t not.
 
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jakeseven7

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They do, but people really need to start thinking for themselves a little more, too. It’s stunning that people who are so engaged with the issue can be so repeatedly sucked in by lazy or manipulative reporting.

I agree, it was said daily, literally for weeks on end that as the numbers became smaller, the mystery case target became more and more important.

It was also said daily, literally for weeks on end that the targets would be malleable towards the end due to the nature of the virus.

People want black and white and simple, and whilst I can appreciate this (I want it too!) this virus is 1 million shades of grey.
 

lovetravellingoz

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It was also mentioned here on this AFF thread in the past few days that Victoria met (or looks like meeting) the original targets/benchmarks by the original modelling date (before the Melbourne Step 3 date was moved earlier and then split) when it didn’t not.

Was it?

The posts I recall (so I have missed the one that you are referring to) were more that the modelling had been accurate, that the new daily case average had been met. I do not recall a post on the unknown trigger having been met, or would be met.

Leading up to that there was speculation that the new cases per day average trigger was likely to be achieved but that the unknown could not be achieved given what Mystery cases had already occurred within what would be the determining 14 day rolling period for the 26 Oct (ie It could only have been achieved if announced Mystery cases in the determining period were linked and reclassified).

I don't recall anyone saying that both triggers were met. Given the mystery cases that happened it has been known for longer than a few days that the unknown metro trigger was not achievable by the original target date.

I know that yesterday I indicated that with the unknown trigger that it was close to the original target and that the target may well be met not long after the original target date, but that this would take a further 3 days (2 days as of today) if no new mystery cases, which would be 3 days after the originally modelling date. Given the general modelling accuracy throughout the pandemic I would tend to think that the modelling announced when the roadmap was released has been surprisingly good.

How funny that the modelling they did was bang on - they’ve hit their less than 5 rolling average! Great news.

Will be interesting to see how the northern outbreak response is going when they debrief.


If you look at the graph below you can see that 6 cases are due to drop off over the next 3 days. So if no new Mystery cases, the trigger will have dropped from 9 to 3 = target reached. There is possibly 1 unclassified case pending that may become a mystery case. But that would still see it at 4.

Updated Mystery Case trigger as of today - The 3 mystery cases of 11 Oct need to drop out of the rolling 14 day period to reach the original target number in hopefully another 2 days (So late). That is without of course without more mystery cases occurring, or being reclassified as new mystery cases.

1603669875872.png
 
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