Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Gremlin]

Qld 0 cases and about 1000 tests.

The testing rate (less than ACT for example) would be the only concern from these numbers, given to prevalence of no/little symptoms and high mobility during a holiday season and it’s point as a holiday destination.

Qlder here. Not sure if we'll see a spike in tests as the border opens up, but was talking to a couple of GPs, one in Brisbane and one on the Sunshine Coast, who have said that they have not seen anywhere near the same number of colds, sniffles and respiratory patients as they would for a 'normal' winter. The kids' school principal mentioned that they haven't had the usual winter absentees you'd normally expect this time of year. There's certainly a number of testing sites around the place and plenty of ads on the radio/TV reminding you to get tested if you show any symptoms, but this is the first winter I've known where I don't know a single person who hasn't had a cold. (Maybe I just don't have any friends)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Interesting to note looking back with hindsight....from ABC Covid live blog

Should Melbourne have gone into lockdown sooner?

Brett Sutton is asked if metropolitan Melbourne should have moved into lockdown when it was imposed on hotspot areas.

He says it came down to trying to balance a "proportionate response in terms of understanding what it means to close businesses, to cause economic and psychological and health hardship and suffering for individuals".

I think the question really is should Melbourne have limited in home gatherings more quickly. This is what fuelled a lot of the growth after the security guards re-injected the virus into what by them was a large virus free community. Unfortunately the demographics of the communities that these guards lived in and interacted with was different that

Increasing the size gatherings allowed in homes was a measure that was leading the easing of restrictions (probably because up to then it had been and so it was most likely deemed a safe way to come out of restrictions), and most unfortunately this coincided with the the virus being re-injected into the community at large.

When Italy and Spain had their initially large surges and growth, many wondered why it was so much more severe there than say in Australia, or say in many of the Scandinavian counties. Various reasons contributed, but I think it was soon realised that a key reason for the difference frequent family gatherings, including inter-generational gatherings that was more the norm there, was certainly a key reason. In our first wave family spread was not that crucial. You got members within nuclear families infected, but not so much from branch to branch of families. In the second wave family to family spread has been a key reason why it accelerated so quickly as we had families that tended to live in larger numbers, more crowded conditions and who mixed with other relatives on a much more frequent basis than what was typical in the first wave. There was one family in this second wave where 8 different family units, of the overall family, were all infected quite rapidly. Hence a higher Ro. Similar to Singapore's second wave which was not family driven, but with guest workers living in crowded dorms it also meant lots of people mixing. = High Ro again.

Abattoirs have taken off again. Workers in close indoor conditions, and so high potential Ro again. Contrast this with outside workers were cases in either wave have been few.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Qlder here. Not sure if we'll see a spike in tests as the border opens up, but was talking to a couple of GPs, one in Brisbane and one on the Sunshine Coast, who have said that they have not seen anywhere near the same number of colds, sniffles and respiratory patients as they would for a 'normal' winter. The kids' school principal mentioned that they haven't had the usual winter absentees you'd normally expect this time of year. There's certainly a number of testing sites around the place and plenty of ads on the radio/TV reminding you to get tested if you show any symptoms, but this is the first winter I've known where I don't know a single person who hasn't had a cold. (Maybe I just don't have any friends)

Yes influenza cases are extremely low this season.

https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/13Jul-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

And in Victoria they remain low as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Do they give age breakdowns for those hospitalized & in ICU like they do for those who have the virus? Maybe that would help in spreading the message that it's not just the older generations that end up very sick or worse.

Not in the stats, but it is commented on from time to time.

ie on 14th July : Of the 26 currently in Vic ICU due to Covid19, 40% were under 60 and one in their 30s.

 

[Pushka]

The woman in SA has tested positive after returning from Overseas via Melbourne quarantine. Regarded as low grade infection and was in self iso.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The woman in SA has tested positive after returning from Overseas via Melbourne quarantine. Regarded as low grade infection and was in self iso.

Snap.

From what I noted, the person already Tested twice negative during quarantine in Vic.

 

[Lynda2475]

From what I noted, the person already Tested twice negative during quarantine in Vic

This seems to have happened a few times now - reported previously in NT and NSW. So either technique in testing at the hotels was poor (adding to their issues with Vic Quarantine) or the person managed to get infected in the process of departing the hotel i..e touching a common surface on their way out.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I think the question really is should Melbourne have limited in home gatherings more quickly. This is what fuelled a lot of the growth after the security guards re-injected the virus into what by them was a large virus free community. Unfortunately the demographics of the communities that these guards lived in and interacted with was different that

Increasing the size gatherings allowed in homes was a measure that was leading the easing of restrictions (probably because up to then it had been and so it was most likely deemed a safe way to come out of restrictions), and most unfortunately this coincided with the the virus being re-injected into the community at large.

When Italy and Spain had their initially large surges and growth, many wondered why it was so much more severe there than say in Australia, or say in many of the Scandinavian counties. Various reasons contributed, but I think it was soon realised that a key reason for the difference frequent family gatherings, including inter-generational gatherings that was more the norm there, was certainly a key reason. In our first wave family spread was not that crucial. You got members within nuclear families infected, but not so much from branch to branch of families. In the second wave family to family spread has been a key reason why it accelerated so quickly as we had families that tended to live in larger numbers, more crowded conditions and who mixed with other relatives on a much more frequent basis than what was typical in the first wave. There was one family in this second wave where 8 different family units, of the overall family, were all infected quite rapidly. Hence a higher Ro. Similar to Singapore's second wave which was not family driven, but with guest workers living in crowded dorms it also meant lots of people mixing. = High Ro again.

Abattoirs have taken off again. Workers in close indoor conditions, and so high potential Ro again. Contrast this with outside workers were cases in either wave have been few.

Dr FM told me some months ago (she is working in London), that a huge source of cases in London were from multi generational families living together in small spaces.

 

[jase05]

This seems to have happened a few times now - reported previously in NT and NSW. So either technique in testing at the hotels was poor (adding to their issues with Vic Quarantine) or the person managed to get infected in the process of departing the hotel i..e touching a common surface on their way out.

Not necessarily.
The result was a low positive and SA Health believe it could be from a old infection

 

[p--and--t]

Not necessarily.
The result was a low positive and SA Health believe it could be from a old infection

That's something I have been mulling over when I see stats and reports of positive/negative and confidence (or lack of) in testing.

There seem to be people who are asymptomatic with huge viral loads spreading the virus willy nilly.

There are those that are asymptomatic sometimes testing positive, sometimes testing negative with very low viral loads and likely not capable to pass on the infection but may be counted + or -.

There are those who had the infection and 6 weeks later it's difficult to find it in their system at all.

There are those who were infected and recovered more than 4 months ago with still high readings in their blood (but doesn't mean they are still infectious) - and could possibly counted as "+" ?

There are different testing methods from different companies with differing confidence levels testing for differing things.

There are stats and stats galore but not much co-relation or commonality of what it all means for a lay person.

Edit: I also don't get the pre-occupations with fussing over total infections we have ever had since January. Surely what is important is how many are infected now and can pass it on of end up in hospital or worse.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW Health 'concerned' about three mystery coronavirus cases

AAP

Health authorities in NSW are scrambling to identify the source of three mystery coronavirus infections, in an attempt to link them to a growing cluster in Sydney's south west.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said "around 40" confirmed COVID-19 cases had been linked to the Crossroads Hotel outbreak in Casula, an increase on yesterday's number of 34.

The three mystery infections were all in Sydney's south-western suburbs, Dr Chant said.

It's clearly moving around now in Sydney... we can only hope now that people are behaving properly in the most at risk suburbs.

 

[Pushka]

Not necessarily.
The result was a low positive and SA Health believe it could be from a old infection

So why wasnt it picked up as a positive in Quarantine? False negative? Testing not picking up smaller traces?

 

[Lynda2475]

It's clearly moving around now in Sydney... we can only hope now that people are behaving properly in the most at risk suburbs.

although the 3 cases under investigation are all in south west sydney, so could still yet be connected to Crossroads hotel.

Im going off this link which shows active cases by LGA: COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Locally acquired COVID-19 cases and tests in the last four weeks - up to 8pm 15 July 2020 nothing in Sydney proper, inner west, eastern suburns or lower north shore. Most in Liverpool, campbletown, albury, paramatta.

 

[jase05]

So why wasnt it picked up as a positive in Quarantine? False negative? Testing not picking up smaller traces?

Conor McKenna the Irish AFL player tested negative 7 times in something like 15 days then had two low positive tests in 2 days before returning another 4 negative tests in 6 days.
Im not a scientist so no idea how it works

 

[RooFlyer]

I was feeling a bit warm the other evening, so took my temperature. 0.5 degree above what it would normally be that time of day (I've been taking it from time to time to get a 'baseline'). No harm getting a test, especially as I had a physio appointment next week, so I called the Tasmanian COVID hotline to make a booking (required in the Hobart testing clinic). Conversation was surprisingly low key. Eventually said that they could give me a 'referral', and someone from the medical team would all me 'usually' within 24 hours and arrange a time for a test. "So won't be tomorrow, then?" "I don't know - all we say is that they will contact you within 24 hours." Then she mentioned that a non-booking clinic would be held in a regional town a bit closer to me on the weekend (3 days away).

Not exactly in a hurry are they! When I said I thought a test before them would be better, she said I could call my GP and get a test done at the doctor's surgery.

The next morning, and since, I've been fine, so I didn't call the GP, but I will be going in for the weekend test. I'm by myself at home between now and then, so I'm pretty comfortable with the situation.

The Tas health Minister was on the radio this morning. Exempt workers coming from Victoria have been a sore point since the Vic outbreak started. The government has cracked down on exemptions granted to Victorians, but they are still coming. Asked why they aren't required to be testing on arrival, the Minister just parroted the line "that's not the advice we are getting from the health authorities". Stuffed if I know why they can't be tested. its not as if there are lots of them.

A lot of our freight comes from Victoria on trucks via the Spirit of Tasmania car ferries. Minister said previously that 80% of the trucks are driven on by Victorians, and driven off by local drivers, but that still leaves a bunch of Victorian (and probably NSW) truckies circulating around the state.

So far we've been lucky, over 60 days without a case (we don't get any overseas arrivals - no customs etc people here), but when it comes, I hope to hell that it won't be a "Yeah, I guess we should have plugged that hole" moment.

 

[Pushka]

I was feeling a bit warm the other evening, so took my temperature. 0.5 degree above what it would normally be that time of day (I've been taking it from time to time to get a 'baseline'). No harm getting a test, especially as I had a physio appointment next week, so I called the Tasmanian COVID hotline to make a booking (required in the Hobart testing clinic). Conversation was surprisingly low key. Eventually said that they could give me a 'referral', and someone from the medical team would all me 'usually' within 24 hours and arrange a time for a test. "So won't be tomorrow, then?" "I don't know - all we say is that they will contact you within 24 hours." Then she mentioned that a non-booking clinic would be held in a regional town a bit closer to me on the weekend (3 days away).

Not exactly in a hurry are they! When I said I thought a test before them would be better, she said I could call my GP and get a test done at the doctor's surgery.

The next morning, and since, I've been fine, so I didn't call the GP, but I will be going in for the weekend test. I'm by myself at home between now and then, so I'm pretty comfortable with the situation.

The Tas health Minister was on the radio this morning. Exempt workers coming from Victoria have been a sore point since the Vic outbreak started. The government has cracked down on exemptions granted to Victorians, but they are still coming. Asked why they aren't required to be testing on arrival, the Minister just parroted the line "that's not the advice we are getting from the health authorities". Stuffed if I know why they can't be tested. its not as if there are lots of them.

A lot of our freight comes from Victoria on trucks via the Spirit of Tasmania car ferries. Minister said previously that 80% of the trucks are driven on by Victorians, and driven off by local drivers, but that still leaves a bunch of Victorian (and probably NSW) truckies circulating around the state.

So far we've been lucky, over 60 days without a case (we don't get any overseas arrivals - no customs etc people here), but when it comes, I hope to hell that it won't be a "Yeah, I guess we should have plugged that hole" moment.

SA has now introduced a $1000 fine for people not taking the test within 24 hours of arrival.

 

[Lynda2475]

Interesting:

Research now indicates that headaches are the most common symptom of coronavirus, with 62 per cent of people who show any symptoms reporting the complaint. A study by Imperial College London also found that loss of taste or smell were each more common than a persistent cough. However, overall only three in 10 people testing positive for COVID-19 show any symptoms at all.

A blocked nose was the second most common symptom among those who reported any symptoms in the week before testing positive, affecting just over half.

Diarrhoea affected exactly a third of those who experienced any symptoms, while loss of smell and taste affected 30 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.

Fever affected only 20 per cent who reported symptoms and a new persistent cough 23 per cent.

Maybe there is something to need for extra TP??

 

[SydneySwan]

SA has now introduced a $1000 fine for people not taking the test within 24 hours of arrival.

Even if you are of 'no fixed address'?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not necessarily.
The result was a low positive and SA Health believe it could be from a old infection

Exactly. How long someone tests positive for and how long they are infectious for are often quite different. Some have tested positive after several months, but are not infectious..

The 14 day quarantine period would seem to work unless a person is symptomatic, and if so stays are meant to be extended beyond 14 days. This 14 day period would seem to have worked well worldwide. I belive the UK uses 7 days though which seems a bit short to myself.


The problem in Vic evidently was not the testing of the quarantined, nor people released from 14 day quarantine infecting people post-quarantine but that:

• the security guards were not following, and adhering, to the right protocols at work, as well as apparently other physical distancing practices to and from work (carpooling) and at home
• that some of the quarantined were reportedly allowed by the quards to mix with guards as well as others in quarantine
• that there were early reports in March of people sneaking out to smoke and a request for police 24/7. I don't know if that continued, but their were certainly reports of quards escorting people outside with lax protocols.

The hints on the genomic testing are that it came from most likely two distance people (patient zeros). Presumably this was quarantined person (whether that be direct or by fomite, but the guess is the former) to guard/s transmission in each hotel. And then from guard to guard, and then to family members and so on.

PS: There was a the UK lady who left quarantine early for compassionate reasons , but SA authorities did not quite handle her arrival ok. But as I understand it no one was actually infected. And NZ had several examples, though again evidently no one became infected.

 

[Pushka]

Even if you are of 'no fixed address'?

And I think that is likewise being addressed too with a gaol sentence for deliberate avoidance of quarantine.

Update: all four had a negative covid and they are being kicked out of the state by end of the day. And the Premier is furious with the Magistrate who let them off scott free. Hence the fine for not complying. Oh well, at least we dont have to house them in gaol.

Post automatically merged: Jul 16, 2020

Exactly. How long someone tests positive for and how long they are infectious for are often quite different. Some have tested positive after several months, but are not infectious..

The 14 day quarantine period would seem to work unless a person is symptomatic, and if so stays are meant to be extended beyond 14 days. This 14 day period would seem to have worked well worldwide. I belive the UK uses 7 days though which seems a bit short to myself.


The problem in Vic evidently was not the testing of the quarantined, nor people released from 14 day quarantine infecting people post-quarantine but that:

• the security guards were not following, and adhering, to the right protocols at work, as well as apparently other physical distancing practices to and from work (carpooling) and at home
• that some of the quarantined were reportedly allowed by the quards to mix with guards as well as others in quarantine
• that there were early reports in March of people sneaking out to smoke and a request for police 24/7. I don't know if that continued, but their were certainly reports of quards escorting people outside with lax protocols.

The hints on the genomic testing are that it came from most likely two distance people (patient zeros). Presumably this was quarantined person (whether that be direct or by fomite, but the guess is the former) to guard/s transmission in each hotel. And then from guard to guard, and then to family members and so on.

PS: There was a the UK lady who left quarantine early for compassionate reasons , but SA authorities did not quite handle her arrival ok. But as I understand it no one was actually infected. And NZ had several examples, though again evidently no one became infected.

She attended the police waiting at the airport gate and was tested on the spot and taken by individual transport to iso.