Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Lynda2475

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It looks like London had 4K peak omicrom wave hospitalisations for a population of 9M.

I was calling BS on prediction that NSW hits 6000 cases, local predictions were for a peak no higher than 4k and that isn't looking likely anymore.

Note: that the same site confirms what I stated about England peaking at 17k covid hospitalisations.
 

lovetravellingoz

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RATS may be hard to come by in retail in some areas, but are available from test sites if you are symptomatic.

RATs tests have only recently been available from testing sites.

So you just have reinforced why test results now may be more accurate than when not all PCR swabs were being tested as they became too old and when testing sites did not have RATs.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Interesting that NSW is projected to have more hospitalizations than London which has a greater population and lower vaccination rate, is that due to less immunity from prior infection?
I think everyone has observed projected have been more often 'overs'.

I'm not worried about the cause until it starts looking like going over the projected - NSW is at 2850 (+74) - 4000 or 5000 still seems a long way.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Interesting that NSW is projected to have more hospitalizations than London which has a greater population and lower vaccination rate, is that due to less immunity from prior infection?

This is a slightly different graph.

Note that the NSW Health Modelling is the orange line.

The other cities are just comparisons as to what has happened there. They are not projections for NSW.

1642470902176.png
 
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kamchatsky

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I have observed this unwillingness to test children too....yet grandma was asked to take him twice in the early days 😂. This time it's a quarantine anyway as close contact so I guess the outcome is the same esp for those too young to be vaccinated.

My kids hates doing the nasal swabs as part of PCR. It hurts them a lot and it is very hard to get it done when they move around a lot.

So the proposal for NSW kids to do RAT testing twice a week has me worried. I hope it is saliva based testing rather than nasal.
 

drron

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I was calling BS on prediction that NSW hits 6000 cases, local predictions were for a peak no higher than 4k and that isn't looking likely anymore.

Note: that the same site confirms what I stated about England peaking at 17k covid hospitalisations.
Of course on a population basis NSW is higher at 2850 than the UK at 17K. 8.5 million population for NSW as against 67 million for the UK. Adjusting the NSW figure for the UK population would mean it would be ~24,500.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I was calling BS on prediction that NSW hits 6000 cases, local predictions were for a peak no higher than 4k and that isn't looking likely anymore.

Note: that the same site confirms what I stated about England peaking at 17k covid hospitalisations.

There was no such prediction. The prediction by NSW Health was the blue line, The actual is the black line.


The other two lines were just comparisons if the rate was the same as for London. Guateng or New York. There was no curve at all for England, or the UK.

The 6000 was not a prediction for NSW, it was a comparison to if NSW had the same rate as has happened in New York.
 
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jrfsp

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Of course on a population basis NSW is higher at 2850 than the UK at 17K. 8.5 million population for NSW as against 67 million for the UK. Adjusting the NSW figure for the UK population would mean it would be ~24,500.

Yes that's what i was getting at, i don't think this is a NSW thing, i think it will be AU wide and is largely a result of far less prior infection in AU compared to UK or South Africa even with a better vaccination rate
 

lovetravellingoz

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Interesting that NSW is projected to have more hospitalizations than London which has a greater population and lower vaccination rate, is that due to less immunity from prior infection?


Note that the Green line was a comparison to both London and Gauteng (South Africa).

And yes a number of people have postulated the South Africa was less severe as they have had a much greater percentage of people who have had Covid in previous waves, than in Australia where only a small % had had covid pre Omicron, and where it is still low compared to the UK or South Africa.

However New York also had a higher % of people than NSW has who pre-Omicron had had Covid and its hospitalisation comparison is higher than for NSW.
 
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Lynda2475

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So you just have reinforced why test results now may be more accurate than when not all PCR swabs were being tested as they became too old and when testing sites did not have RATs.

There you go twisting my posts again.

You posted a negative outlook about how real number of cases are understated. I challenged this negativity as it is now fairly easy to get tested if you are symptomatic in NSW, as RATS are handed out at testing centres and no need for asymptomatic people to test.

I made zero mention of the fact Victoria was not processing aged PCR swabs, it is completely wrong of you to try and relate that to what I said.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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My kids hates doing the nasal swabs as part of PCR. It hurts them a lot and it is very hard to get it done when they move around a lot.

So the proposal for NSW kids to do RAT testing twice a week has me worried. I hope it is saliva based testing rather than nasal.
There are not many saliva/oral ones around. Perhaps cut corners and do it once per week.
 

Pushka

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3079 in SA and two deaths. No more details. Numbers down again, hospital rates slightly higher. Tomorrow they will give the hospital rates for people with Covid and people in hospital for Covid, which, as they have stopped elective surgery, is the only statistic that should matter. The others would be in hospital anyway.
 

drron

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Tasmania's update.
1642479122455.png

!2 in hospital for covid.
The fully vaxxed rate for >12 has sped up. Nearly 98% now.
 

RooFlyer

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A bit more on Tas (Mercury on line):

Premier Peter Gutwein made the announcement as Tasmania records just over 1300 new Covid-19 cases in the past 24 hours and two people [in total] have been admitted to intensive care for treatment - one is on a ventilator.

Both patients are in their 70’s.

Public Health Director Mark Vietch provided a breakdown of the ages of the 25 people in hospital with Covid-19.

One is aged under 10, two are in their 20’s, four in their 30’s ,two in their 40’s, one aged in their 50’s, two in their 60’s, seven in 70’s and six aged 80 and above.

“We have had a bit over 1000 cases for over a week. I do not think we are quite at a peak. We would expect more hospitalisations in the coming days as some people get sick enough to need hospital care,” Dr Veitch said.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Data analyst Casey Briggs explains.
"National case numbers are plateauing or even falling, but that picture is muddled by an artificial spike when rapid tests were first counted and a fundamental shift in the way Australia measures the virus.
"The better indicator for the peak of this wave may be hospitalisations, which are still increasing.
"But in New South Wales, hospital admissions look to have stopped accelerating. It may be slowing, which would be the precursor to a bending in the curve.
"Other states may not be far behind. In Queensland, growth in hospital admissions is more or less steady, which could be the first sign of an improvement to come."

Which is my view too. The hospital measures will tell the tale, though these are lag indicators compared to case numbers.
 
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jrfsp

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From the ABC "The federal government is re-activating an emergency provision that supports private hospitals switching to providing services to public patients and expanding intensive care capacity"

What affect will this have on elective surgery provided through the private system?
 

Pushka

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From the ABC "The federal government is re-activating an emergency provision that supports private hospitals switching to providing services to public patients and expanding intensive care capacity"

What affect will this have on elective surgery provided through the private system?
This has already been put in place in SA for a few weeks now. No elective surgery that isn't life saving. The word 'electifve' is a complete misnomer, it's not like most are things like unnecessary plastic surgery etc but rather procedures that alleviate significant life impact issues.
 
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