Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Quickstatus

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They want a concrete figure
Your post is excellent and I only reproduce it above as a link only to save space.

One of the problems is that while modellers report their findings and posit a variety of possible outcomes, those at the public face will target only one outcome/or narrative - usually one that fits their agenda.

In the end it is no surprise that the actual outcome is going to be different and no surprise if it matches the modelling.
 

OATEK

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Your post is excellent and I only reproduce it above as a link only to save space.

One of the problems is that while modellers report their findings and posit a variety of possible outcomes, those at the public face will target only one outcome/or narrative - usually one that fits their agenda.

In the end it is no surprise that the actual outcome is going to be different and no surprise if it matches the modelling.
In the case of NSW, they seem to have selected an outcome on the high/worse side, and planned to meet that during October. If it doesn't reach those levels (and it appears it hasn't/won't) then they can breath a sigh of relief.
 

Quickstatus

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sigh of relief.
Maybe, and likely the accompanying fear factor boosted the Vax rates. Is that good or bad?. I don’t know. Possibly means that there is only one bullet in the chamber. Pull the trigger and sell the bad news but don’t expect people to react the same way next time when the story turns out to be different to that which was sold because they then realise they were not given the full story

Similarly, Dan has a gun without any more bullets…
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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In the case of NSW, they seem to have selected an outcome on the high/worse side, and planned to meet that during October. If it doesn't reach those levels (and it appears it hasn't/won't) then they can breath a sigh of relief.
Which seem reasonable when one is relying on a limited resource like hospitals to treat the most serious cases. The ICU number was a NSW government number from a number of models - it was not Burnet's number. And the 'peak' two weeks later for the bulk of serious ICU-level cases seemed reasonable.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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It will be interesting to see if there would be any changes the direction the NSW government goes with this.
...where most NSW government pandemic decision are decided by a Crisis Cabinet. The only person's seat in Crisis Cabinet that will not change is the Deputy Premier. Others may move and the composition may alter.
 

jakeseven7

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Anyone watch the QLD press conference on the numbers of the outbreak?

My favourite quote ‘We don’t do no special treatment for sporting teams and events’ (in reference to would they postpone the GF to stop the virus spread).

Oh yup sure totally.
 

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A number of posts have been deleted that were discussing the resignation and succession of the NSW Premier.
Further discussion on the matter will not be tolerated.
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burmans

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In the case of NSW, they seem to have selected an outcome on the high/worse side, and planned to meet that during October. If it doesn't reach those levels (and it appears it hasn't/won't) then they can breath a sigh of relief.
Much as I have given my bosses a hard time from time to time I have had my share of good advice. One of the best was ‘under promise and over deliver’, seems they might have received similar advice.
 

jakeseven7

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Casino back in lockdown

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Casino in northern NSW enters snap lockdown​

Residents of Casino in northern NSW have entered a snap lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

NSW Health said late on Friday night that the stay-at-home order for people in the town of Casino would apply from midnight until 11 October “due to an increased COVID-19 public health risk”.

 

HappyFlyerFamily

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So what are people's opinion/narrative to explain ACT's numbers?

'Record' positive tests against the backdrop of high vaccination rates and in their quasi-lockdown. 13 in hospital and 3 in ICU with ventilator patients.
 
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Pom-DownUnder

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So what are people's opinion/narrative to explain ACT's numbers?

'Record' positive tests against the backdrop of high vaccination rates and in their quasi-lockdown. 13 in hospital and 3 in ICU with ventilator patients.
"I'm Vaxxed shouldnt be a big deal if i get it"

Would be my guess.

we hear alot of numbers about people vaxx'd or not for hospital numbers, wonder what they are for 'cases' its kinda being presented like pre-80% hospitlisation will be 10% and 15 days after 80% watermark it'll be 2% hospitalised.
 

Jos888

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Interesting report on the current situation in Singapore.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sydney found itself in a similar situation come December... Will be interesting to see what happens then.
Singapore daily cases have doubled in the past week from 1443 last Saturday to 2909 yesterday.
 

ethernet

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Despite chaos and lockdown fibs, the models are getting seriously better. The vaccination rate of 80% has also been shored up with 12-16yo's as a bonus. Mid January is now the danger point. NSW is wisely tipping / carving out Woolongong and other rule breakers based on fresh numbers, while Victorians continue to be more sneaky about breaking quarantine. NSW has also targeted infection reservoirs (places with lowest of low vaccination rates) buying Queensland more time to prepare. Northern WA is now the most scandalously least vaccinated, real 3rd world levels.

The best course of action for NSW and ACT is to open up at Mid October, because delaying won't change the outcomes. The new danger point is 19-40yo, especially in building and construction.

I cant resist saying Victoria still has the chance to move the Melbourne Cup to Sydney or elsewhere.
 

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48EBCA11-5A33-4674-93B1-D8EB8F332863.jpeg So what are people's opinion/narrative to explain ACT's numbers?

'Record' positive tests against the backdrop of high vaccination rates and in their quasi-lockdown. 13 in hospital and 3 in ICU with ventilator patients.
The ACTs numbers are about what you would expect.
Greater Newcastle has a similar (slightly higher population) than the ACT. Been in lockdown since early August.
We have had ~1000 cases in this outbreak. Currently have 20 patients in hospital and 3 in ICU (2 patients are from out with our LHD).

Currently ~700 active cases.
This is the breakdown of age/ vaccination state of all cases in HNE so far in the outbreak.
Majority of the cases are under 40 and unvaccinated.

The vaccines work, younger people don’t tend to end up admitted to hospital.
I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom in the ACT.
Delta can’t be eliminated, only controlled.
 
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