Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[SydneySwan]

Any chance of a software or recording error? I presume when a number rises so dramatically there is a thorough audit of the numbers. The reff must have leapt up now.

 

[justinbrett]

Any chance of a software or recording error? I presume when a number rises so dramatically there is a thorough audit of the numbers. The reff must have leapt up now.

They did find a whole lot of non-reported cases yesterday. But they included that information in the graphic - this time they didn't.

It looks legit at this stage.

 

[mviy]

No words... near doubling overnight in Victorian cases.

Not sure where you get near doubling from, 950 to 1438 is a jump of 488, which is not much over 50%.

A big increase yes, but nothing like near doubling which would be pushing up towards 1900. Though VIC cases may increase to that kind of a level very soon if the upward trend continues.

 

[MelMel]

 

[jase05]

They did find a whole lot of non-reported cases yesterday. But they included that information in the graphic - this time they didn't.

It looks legit at this stage.

Suspect protests and a lot of illegal AFL GF parties. GF parties are huge and most people I know in Melbourne would have had some they planned for it

 

[mviy]

They did find a whole lot of non-reported cases yesterday. But they included that information in the graphic

I think you mean the day before yesterday, on Tuesday they found that they should have reported more cases on Monday and Sunday for what had taken place the previous day. So in light of that non-reporting VIC case numbers increased above NSW levels in the numbers that should have been released on Monday.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1442631123046072322

 

[flyingfan]

View attachment 260369

Didn't a previous 'important,' don't-miss-it tweet come before a lockdown announcement? Something to expect?

 

[justinbrett]

Positive case in Townsville

Not sure where you get near doubling from, 950 to 1438 is a jump of 488, which is not much over 50%.

A big increase yes, but nothing like near doubling which would be pushing up towards 1900. Though VIC cases may increase to that kind of a level very soon if the upward trend continues.

Well, it's at least half like doubling

It's early. I skipped a day, was thinking 867 was yesterday. It wasn't an exact measurement. I was going to call it a spike but it's more of a doubling than a spike.

 

[Pushka]

Positive case in Townsville



Well, it's at least half like doubling

It's early. I skipped a day, was thinking 867 was yesterday. It wasn't an exact measurement. I was going to call it a spike but it's more of a doubling than a spike.

The emergency location for the Rugby.

 

[Solid]

The emergency location for the Rugby.

Rugby League.
It was also the location for the Rugby Union double header on the weekend that I know there were some specific organised charter flights to and from Brisbane to take fans.

 

[justinbrett]

The emergency location for the Rugby League.

Fixed it for you

 

[NM]

Rugby League.
It was also the location for the Rugby Union double header on the weekend that I know there were some specific organised charter flights to and from Brisbane to take fans.

The double-header may be a single match now with 8 Argentinean players stuck in NSW (oops).

 

[Pushka]

Fixed it for you

Same same but different. To a RAdelaidian. ( However I so much prefer Union. At least I can bear watching five minutes of that one).

 

[SydneySwan]

Not only rugby union and rugby league but the Sheffield Shield match between QLD and TAS was called off a well. Queensland fast going from hero to zero on the sporting ledger.

 

[justinbrett]

No lockdown but more restrictions in SEQ & Townsville

 

[Batterytraveller]

Suspect protests and a lot of illegal AFL GF parties. GF parties are huge and most people I know in Melbourne would have had some they planned for it

A bunch of unvaccinated idiots roam through the city, we already know that some were positive. They are unlikely to get tested but continue to interact in the community. Grand final comes just after so they have gatherings but then pass it to people who will go and get tested. After a couple of days they start to get sick and hey-presto big numbers.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder what case numbers NSW will have 2 weeks after Freedom Day. Place your bets now

 

[oznflfan]

I wonder what case numbers NSW will have 2 weeks after Freedom Day. Place your bets now

Didn't UK go from 30K to 80K then fairly quickly back to 30K.

On that logic let's use NSW spiking up to 3,900 per day, then dropping back to ~1,000 per day.

 

[moa999]

The last few days (and particularly today's number) has drastically change the R for Vic.
Now shown as 1.5, and an estimated peak of near 5000 in late October.

Progression of the COVID outbreak in Victoria

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in Victoria

chrisbillington.net

Obviously a few better days can change this as much as a few bad days

 

[justinbrett]

Didn't UK go from 30K to 80K then fairly quickly back to 30K.

On that logic let's use NSW spiking up to 3,900 per day, then dropping back to ~1,000 per day.

No, cases fell and have never got back to those levels.

Of course the logical answer is nobody is testing asymptomatic people. People started deleting the contact tracing app. Same will happen in NSW. Reported cases will likely go down after reopening.