Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

VPS

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I've noticed him doing this on twitter a bit but I think arguing with stupid people is a bit of a mugs game. You can't have a rational argument with someone who wouldn't (or wont) understand rational arguments.
He did say recently that if they are too stupid he just blocks them rather than engage too much - he doesn't want to waste his time
 
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25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..
Im seeing it a little differently

Im not sure that the UK and AU can be considered like for like.
The cities of the UK is more densely populated than the cities of Australia
Using the first 6 months of a pandemic as a measuring stick to predict what happens for us may be problematic for a whole host of reasons

The best story is that with vaccinations and around 11% of the population already exposed to Covid, the UK is seeing infections but less hospitalisations. The NHS is coping well.

I concur with your calculations, except only for the 300,000 cases only because I am not certain and I don't have a good way of predicting potential numbers using an Australian context. Ive heard in speaking to various people that peak ICU numbers vary between 1000-2000.

I can say that one public hospital near me has started to use its Recovery area (post surgery) for some non covid ICU patients and that non respiratory physicians are also rostered on the (non ICU) Covid positive wards. Additionally, some ICUS have started to take patients from outside the area.

Skilled ICU nursing will be the main problem.

One of the reasons the NSW and VIC are talking about reopening at 70-80% is to gauge public sentiment, encourage comment from other experts - think of it as a sounding board. How it will look may be very different to what people are envisaging now.

what’s probably a poorly run section of a highly funded public health system
What a ridiculous comment. There is nothing in the comment you were replying to that suggests any of that.

ICUs in Australia are highly audited, and much research comes from detailed data collection that occurs with each patient that is admitted into ICU.

Perhaps you don't know the 6 letter name for the extensive database that holds all that data collection that underpins all the auditing and research for ICU treatment in Australia. Let me know if you want the name.
 

N860CR

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What a ridiculous comment. There is nothing in the comment you were replying to that suggests any of that.

The poster in question remarked that they had “turned away four patients without treatment”. I’m currently working in a facility that is running at a very high capacity but we are most certainly nowhere near the point of turning people onto the streets. Should the poster in question be doing that, it would suggest it’s an outlier. Hardly see how point that out is a “ridiculous comment”
 
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“turned away four patients without treatment”

point of turning people onto the streets
Not the same. Just because your facility is not turning people onto the street does not make it a well run section either.
Again no info to support your assertion. Lots of ICU turn away potential customers. Often due to capacity. Often daily and often in non pandemic contexts.
 

N860CR

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Not the same. Just because your facility is not turning people onto the street does not make it a well run section either.
Again no info to support your assertion. Lots of ICU turn away potential customers. Often due to capacity. Often daily and often in non pandemic contexts.

Sorry, but it is. NSW Health is certainly not turning away patients without treatment. If said poster would like to confirm where that’s happening, I’d like to hear it.
 

andye

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Sorry, but it is. NSW Health is certainly not turning away patients without treatment. If said poster would like to confirm where that’s happening, I’d like to hear it.
The usual Australian situation is that if an ICU decline a patient due to staffing/capacity (rather then not likely to benefit from the rigours) an ICU elsewhere is found
 

N860CR

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No one gets turfed onto the streets but sometimes ICU is full and sometimes overcapacity so the patients then have to go to another ICU as has happened on a couple of occasion near my area.

Correct. So the claim of “turning four patients away without treatment” is BS and pure fear mongering.

Aside from a handful of coronacrazies, most I work with in Health are getting quite sick of their health system being put down as “on the brink of collapse”.
 
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Princess Fiona

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Correct. So the claim of “turning four patients away without treatment” is BS and pure fear mongering.

Aside from a handful of coronacrazies, most I work with in Health are getting quite sick of their health system being put down as “on the brink of collapse”.
The poster in question remarked that they had “turned away four patients without treatment”. I’m currently working in a facility that is running at a very high capacity but we are most certainly nowhere near the point of turning people onto the streets. Should the poster in question be doing that, it would suggest it’s an outlier. Hardly see how point that out is a “ridiculous comment”

Sorry, but it is. NSW Health is certainly not turning away patients without treatment. If said poster would like to confirm where that’s happening, I’d like to hear it.
The poster never said that they had turned away four patients without treatment.
The statement is was “I had to decline 4 patients because of a lack of staff”

Nobody said they didn’t get treatment or were turned out into the streets.
They would have been retrieved to an ICU bed in another facility which had a bed and the staff to care for the patient.
This is what is happening right now in NSW.
There are patients hundreds of KM away from their home and family in ICU beds.
We do transfer patients to other facilities at all times dependent on bed status. Given the current occupancy in Greater Sydney and Western that’s happening at a greater volume and outwith the usual referral patterns as the outbreak progresses.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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"had to decline four patients" and “turning four patients away without treatment” are significantly different statements?
The original poster was clear enough effectively saying 'declined 4 patients due to lack of staff', so the two main situations would be (i) an ambulance has an ICU category patient that cannot find a staffed ICU bed or (ii) a patient deteriorated to become ICU category and there was no staffed ICU in the same hospital.

I think we have enough details and if some wish to interpret beyond the actual words used, then that's on them for the misunderstanding. I think everyone is aware from NSW authorities press conference that NSW hospitals are a network
 

Princess Fiona

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The original poster was clear enough effectively saying 'declined 4 patients due to lack of staff', so the two main situations would be (i) an ambulance has an ICU category patient that cannot find a staffed ICU bed or (ii) a patient deteriorated to become ICU category and there was no staffed ICU in the same hospital.

I think we have enough details and if some wish to interpret beyond the actual words used, then that's on them for the misunderstanding. I think everyone is aware from NSW authorities press conference that NSW hospitals are a network
An ambulance that has a patient who is needing ICU level care is called ahead as a Code 3 and goes to the nearest suitable Emergency Department where they are treated and subsequently transferred to an ICU bed in that facility or retrieved to another if there is no suitable bed in the facility where they are.
They may spend a considerable amount of time in the ED waiting on the ICU bed.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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An ambulance that has a patient who is needing ICU level care is called ahead as a Code 3 and goes to the nearest suitable Emergency Department where they are treated and subsequently transferred to an ICU bed in that facility or retrieved to another if there is no suitable bed in the ED where they are.
They may spend a considerable amount of time in the ED waiting on the ICU bed.
Yes, but it seems impractical to go to the nearest suitable ED if that hospital is already known as not having any available staffed ICU bed capacity.
 

N860CR

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The poster never said that they had turned away four patients without treatment.
The statement is was “I had to decline 4 patients because of a lack of staff”

You’re splitting hairs and deflecting from the inference that people are not receiving adequate care as our health system is “overrun”. You of all people should know that’s not the case, and continuing to push this arguement that the state health system is falling apart is offensive, to be blunt.

I’ll categorically say right now that there the risk of a health system overrun now, at 70% and at 80% is extremely minute.
 

Princess Fiona

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Yes, but it seems impractical to go to the nearest suitable ED if that hospital is already known as not having any staff ICU beds.
The Ambulance service has no oversight of this. Unless the ED is on diversion then they will go to the closest suitable one.
It would not benefit the patient or the crew to drive a critically ill patient further than they need to to offload for further treatment.
 

drron

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Even before covid hospitals in every State have been under pressure at one time or another.Was very common here in Tasmania.
I have previously reported that on 2 occasions working in QLD I have had patients requiring ICU retrieved to NSW As I said this was pre covid.
Fortunately NSW hospitals weren't just for NSW residents.
 

N860CR

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"had to decline four patients" and “turning four patients away without treatment” are significantly different statements?

Side by side I guess they are a little different. However the first was used in the context that the health system is so overrun that patients are being “declined”, however clearly written in a way that can be wound back if called out on.

I’ll repeat again for those playing at home; NSW Health is working hard, but it’s not “overrun” or “at capacity”. There are a handful of people in the system who are quite vocal about the additional workload (I’m not touching that one… but let’s just say it’s generally those who don’t work so hard on the front line) however the vast majority of health staff are proud of the work they’re doing, happy to be making a difference and quite frustrated that the system keeps getting talked down.
 

Princess Fiona

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You’re splitting hairs and deflecting from the inference that people are not receiving adequate care as our health system is “overrun”. You of all people should know that’s not the case, and continuing to push this arguement that the state health system is falling apart is offensive, to be blunt.

I’ll categorically say right now that there the risk of a health system overrun now, at 70% and at 80% is extremely minute.
I’m not splitting hairs nor pushing any agenda.
My posts are as I see it in my everyday working life.
I have not said the Health system will be overrun or is falling apart. It is stretched and will continue to be so as we work through getting to our National targets for vaccination. In the meantime I’ll continue to turn up to work as I always have.

The OP never said that 4 patients were turned away without treatment. You have made several posts that stated this.
It’s incorrect.
 
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