Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Seat0B

Established Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Posts
1,849
Qantas
Platinum
Australia has lived with 1000 flu deaths a year for quite some time.Mostly these are older folk with comorbidities but occasionally a variant that also strikes the young such as in 2009 and 2017.At times we have had some aged care facilities locked down usually for a short time.
Now in the current Sydney outbreak the mortality rate is ~ 0.4%.This means there would be 250000 cases to get 1000 deaths.

The difference to the flu is that there will be more hospitalised and more ICU usage.However as vaccinations rise the mortality rate and ICU rates of admission should drop further.
And as a positive it is likely flu deaths will be lower than average as Covid does cause deaths in the same demographic.

And just to point out to the WA CHO as WA's population is ~2.8 million then WA can expect 27,500 cases per year and 110 deaths.

So if Australia has accepted 1000 flu deaths a year why are we hyperventilating and adversely affecting our economy,our mental health and isolating ourselves from the rest of the world.Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.
@drron for PM!!
 

justinbrett

Established Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Posts
3,861
Qantas
Platinum
Some political commentators have suggested if the ACT doesn't have a plan to open up in line with VIC/NSW, the federal government could achieve it by federal legislation (being a territory).

It makes sense - ACT's sole reason for existing is to provide the national capital freedom from state control and interference. If it gets to the point where the federal parliament can't function properly, it's probably not unwarranted for the federal government to step in. Otherwise, you may as well be a LHD of NSW.
 

antycbr

Established Member
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Posts
2,034
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Platinum
Some political commentators have suggested if the ACT doesn't have a plan to open up in line with VIC/NSW, the federal government could achieve it by federal legislation (being a territory).

It makes sense - ACT's sole reason for existing is to provide the national capital freedom from state control and interference. If it gets to the point where the federal parliament can't function properly, it's probably not unwarranted for the federal government to step in. Otherwise, you may as well be a LHD of NSW.
They can just disallow whatever legislation or regulations the ACT government passes through the Legislative Assembly or amend the Self Government Act. Same for the NT.
 
Get paid up to 25% in real cash from your everyday purchases from leading companies such as Virgin Australia, Booking.com, Coles, Apple, Microsoft and much more. Free to join and no catches!

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

moa999

Enthusiast
Joined
Jun 23, 2003
Posts
11,980
Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.

The simple answer is because it wouldn't have been 1000 deaths.
Population adjusted the UK has had the equivalent of 51,000 deaths.

(And that's even after they had significant lock downs and early access to vaccines)
 

drron

Veteran Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2002
Posts
29,271
The simple answer is because it wouldn't have been 1000 deaths.
Population adjusted the UK has had the equivalent of 51,000 deaths.

(And that's even after they had significant lock downs and early access to vaccines)
Except we are not dealing with last years deaths but the figures for 2021 when vaccines and better treatment are available.My calculations are based on Australia's figures for 2021.Last year our mortality rate was just over 3%.0.4% this year.Chalk and cheese.
 

Pom-DownUnder

Active Member
Joined
Jan 4, 2020
Posts
652
Except we are not dealing with last years deaths but the figures for 2021 when vaccines and better treatment are available.My calculations are based on Australia's figures for 2021.Last year our mortality rate was just over 3%.0.4% this year.Chalk and cheese.
yea victoria deaths last year compared to syd deaths this year (with more cases now) is pure vaccine evidence
 

N860CR

Established Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2004
Posts
4,884
yea victoria deaths last year compared to syd deaths this year (with more cases now) is pure vaccine evidence

And the fact that the virus spread in huge volumes in nursing homes. I believe the vast majority of Victorian deaths were nursing home patients who had a poor chance of recovery from a particularly bad strain of influenza.

Of course, pointing out that the mortality rate isn’t overly high (which I would say a good thing) does get certain groups riled up. Very odd.
 

teammongo

Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Posts
169
At 80% vaccination in one of the worlds richest countries, there should be zero issue in handling a few covid patients.
Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

This is the current ICU situation in NSW.

Screen Shot 2021-09-15 at 9.59.17 pm.png
Half of all the ventilated patients in NSW are COVID. A third of all ICU beds are COVID. These patients aren't scattered evenly throughout NSW, they are clustered in the hotspots. This has huge ramifications, and makes usual service provision impossible in these areas.
With over 100,000 tests per day, we could pay for a lot of nurses.

Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..

Australia has lived with 1000 flu deaths a year for quite some time.Mostly these are older folk with comorbidities but occasionally a variant that also strikes the young such as in 2009 and 2017.At times we have had some aged care facilities locked down usually for a short time.
Now in the current Sydney outbreak the mortality rate is ~ 0.4%.This means there would be 250000 cases to get 1000 deaths.

The difference to the flu is that there will be more hospitalised and more ICU usage.However as vaccinations rise the mortality rate and ICU rates of admission should drop further.
And as a positive it is likely flu deaths will be lower than average as Covid does cause deaths in the same demographic.

And just to point out to the WA CHO as WA's population is ~2.8 million then WA can expect 27,500 cases per year and 110 deaths.

So if Australia has accepted 1000 flu deaths a year why are we hyperventilating and adversely affecting our economy,our mental health and isolating ourselves from the rest of the world.Why won't we be able to accept 1000 covid deaths per year.

1000 seasonal flu deaths are very different to pandemic flu, as no doubt you'd be aware. So comparisons, if any, should be to pandemic flu - such as H1N1. Seasonal flu affects a similar cohort to the Melbourne outbreak, with fatalities and morbidity being mainly in the infirm and co-morbid.
I think when the surge settles, the mortality will be higher that 0.4%, given that there are significantly more younger patients. Their mortality is biphasic, with sudden early deaths and prolonged complicated admissions. We have seen this previously with H1N1.

I think there is little choice but to open up eventually, but things aren't going to fine for quite some time. It's choosing between a rock and a very hard place..

TM
 

antycbr

Established Member
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Posts
2,034
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Platinum
Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

This is the current ICU situation in NSW.

View attachment 258495
Half of all the ventilated patients in NSW are COVID. A third of all ICU beds are COVID. These patients aren't scattered evenly throughout NSW, they are clustered in the hotspots. This has huge ramifications, and makes usual service provision impossible in these areas.


Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..



1000 seasonal flu deaths are very different to pandemic flu, as no doubt you'd be aware. So comparisons, if any, should be to pandemic flu - such as H1N1. Seasonal flu affects a similar cohort to the Melbourne outbreak, with fatalities and morbidity being mainly in the infirm and co-morbid.
I think when the surge settles, the mortality will be higher that 0.4%, given that there are significantly more younger patients. Their mortality is biphasic, with sudden early deaths and prolonged complicated admissions. We have seen this previously with H1N1.

I think there is little choice but to open up eventually, but things aren't going to fine for quite some time. It's choosing between a rock and a very hard place..

TM
Thank you for a very informative post.

If we run the risk of being derailed because of vaccine hesitancy, time to apply some sticks hard.
 

N860CR

Established Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2004
Posts
4,884
Is this based on any facts?

25 million Australians, approx 15% under 12 leaving 21 million eligible. 20% unvaccinated = 5 million. Within 6 months of the pandemic in the UK, the antibody prevalence was 6%. And that was alpha. So 6% of 5 million is 300,000 cases. 5% hospitalisation on current NSW delta numbers, 15 000 admissions with 6 months, 3000 ICU admissions with approx 1200 ventilated with an average length of stay in ICU 16 days.
Just a few covid patients..

Yes. We pay some of the highest taxes in the world and a huge volume of that is directed into public health. You’ve cherry picked numbers to get to a worst case scenario, however that still looks manageable with appropriate measures.


This is the current ICU situation in NSW.

Are we at 80% vaccination yet?


Where are these specialist nurses? You seem to know where they are hiding.
I had to decline 4 patients on Monday because of lack of staff, too bad if you get sick... But hey, you seem to have all the answers..

Plenty of them working in testing clinics. Still plenty of casual pool nurses not getting as many shifts as they like. Didn’t say I have all the answers, but you don’t seem to either. Decline patients? Sure.

You’re just making excuses for what’s probably a poorly run section of a highly funded public health system. The answer is to fix that, not lock the country up and end up spending even more in the long run.
 
Last edited:

lovetravellingoz

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 13, 2006
Posts
12,602
Are we at 80% vaccination yet?

No. But restrictions will ease, and then people will mix more. And with mixing comes more infections. We will enter a phase of lot more Australians becoming infected. Eventually that will mean that more will acquire immunity through infection. But initially there is going to a sizeable number of people to generate hospitalisations from.

Hopitilastions will mainly be amongst the unvaccinated, but there will also be hopitilastions amongst the vaccinated.

Sooner or later everyone will get exposed to Covid. The trick will be in not getting too many people infected at the same time so that the healthcare system copes and is not overwhelmed (ie it needs to be able to deal with all health problems, and not just Covid). The more that get vaccinated the easier it will be.

Remember too that Covid is going to be effectively two diseases with two cohorts.

The vaccinated who will in the main experience infections in their Upper Respiratory Tract (The vaccines do not help with this), and these can still be significant. The virus replicating in the the URT is why the vaccinated can still infect others. And with some when Covid penetrates into their bodies will still suffer severe illness. Though at a much lower rate than with the unvaccinated.

And then with the unvaccinated there will be the same problems of the URT, but who will experience a much higher rate of severe illness when the virus enters their bodies. The greater the % of unvaccinated the more difficult the situation.
 
Last edited:

jakeseven7

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Posts
9,580
And then with the unvaccinated there will be the same problems of the URT, but who will experience a much higher rate of severe illness when the virus enters their bodies. The greater the % of unvaccinated the more difficult the situation.

Which is a little ironic when you think about it right because the places with low vaccination rates like QLD (now the lowest in the country) are going to see so many cases and virus spread it isn’t funny - yet they are the ones desperately trying to hang onto the impossible covid zero. It’s bonkers.
 

Enhance your AFF viewing experience!

From just $6 we'll remove all advertisements so that you can enjoy a cleaner and uninterupted viewing experience.

And you'll be supporting us so that we can continue to provide this valuable resource :)


Sample AFF with no advertisements? More..
Top