Australian Housing Affordability Discussion

[burmans]

Further to that point, will there be an aged pension in 30 years time??

Of course there will, a better question is whether it will be at a level that is of any use. Given how many (voting) pensioners we have can't imagine any Government ever getting rid of it totally but think a continued erosion is certainly possible.

 

[QF WP]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Saving is one thing, being able to service a mortgage on the 'average' home is quite another. To buy an average home in a cheaper area than where we currently live would require my entire pay to go on the mortgage. And that's with a decent deposit. No point having the house of your dreams if you have no life. You've only got one.

Here here!! Housing affordability has been steadily declining, see current figures here: Housing affordability in Australia – Parliament of Australia

[FONT=&quot]Table 1: Capital cities’ nominal median house prices[/FONT]

	March 1980	March 2016
Sydney*	$64 800	$999 600
Melbourne	$40 800	$713 000
Brisbane*	$34 500	$480 000
Adelaide	$36 300	$445 000
Perth	$41 500	$520 000
Canberra	$39 700	$570 000
Hobart	Not available	$385 000
Darwin	Not available	$582 500

Considering that income growth has not kept pace with median house prices..this information shows the disparity (although it is Sydney, it is still fairly representative of Melbourne pricing)

[FONT=&quot]Affordability for owners[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Housing affordability in Australia has broadly declined since the early 1980s. The OECD’s price to income ratio index shows a 78% increase between 1980 and 2015. In Sydney, which has experienced significant price rises over the period, Parliamentary Library calculations indicate that the ratio of average disposable household income (Australia-wide) to median house prices has increased from approximately 3.3 in June 1981, to just over seven in June 2015. The following graph illustrates Australia-wide ratios from the early 1970s to 2012.

[/FONT]
It's going the wrong way...

 

[Flying mermaid]

I've Only read part of this thread given it's 96 pages long, but my partner and I are on good coin (both professionally employed, both close to 6 figure salaries) and we are struggling to get a foothold.

It's the saving of the deposit - If I want to buy in Canberra, I need about $150k deposit just to get a look in.

If we could get it, mortgage repayments aren't an issue - we can afford that, but tie in LMI, stamp duty and legals, and you need to add another 50-75k on the price of a house :\

it actually is still possible to buy a 3 bedroom house in Canberra for around 460,000. You would need to look in the further out older suburbs, particularly North side e.g. Evatt or Florey spring to mind - we helped our daughter buy one in Evatt 2 years ago on a 900 m2 block for $436,000 - prices have gone up a bit but they still exist. With a 20% deposit you don't need to pay mortgage insurance which is a total ripoff. So more around $110,00 after stamp duty and fees, which is still huge but you would have 20% equity and a block of land big enough to extend once you have the money....

Of course you could have a smaller deposit and pay the mortgage insurance and the actual amount you need goes down as well - say a 10% deposit with add ons would be less than than 80,000. (Guessing at LMI as I have never paid it)

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Here here!! Housing affordability has been steadily declining, see current figures here: Housing affordability in Australia – Parliament of Australia



Considering that income growth has not kept pace with median house prices..this information shows the disparity (although it is Sydney, it is still fairly representative of Melbourne pricing)

[/FONT]
It's going the wrong way...

the other problem of course is that in 1980 you couldn't take both salaries into account, so there was a natural cap on prices. Now the assumption is both people will carry on working even after they start a family. It makes it very, very hard for a single person to be able to afford to buy.

 

[TomVexille]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

the other problem of course is that in 1980 you couldn't take both salaries into account, so there was a natural cap on prices. Now the assumption is both people will carry on working even after they start a family. It makes it very, very hard for a single person to be able to afford to buy.

Yet today, two people on average salaries can't really afford an average house

 

[Steady]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Yet today, two people on average salaries can't really afford an average house

That is a bit too general for me to agree with, Australia is a big place.

 

[blackcat20]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

That is a bit too general for me to agree with, Australia is a big place.

True, but in Melbourne, the average is close to $700k. I earn what is considered an average wage. I cannot afford that average house.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Yet today, two people on average salaries can't really afford an average house

Well they can in Canberra - feel like moving .

when I first bought I couldn't have afforded an average house on an average salary either. In fact I was on an above average salary and I had to move 50km from where I worked to be able to afford to buy in Sydney. It was also a rubbish area - I lived right next to the railway line, but if I came back at night I got off at the station before (which was manned) and got a taxi because it was too dangerous to walk. (This was in 1977)

I am not saying it isn't really hard at the moment - particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, but I also think there are opportunities for people who are prepared to sacrifice size and location to get a foot in the door and then build up slowly to what they actually want.

I come across too many of my kids friend who are desperate to get off the rental roundabout but want to start with a new house with an ensuite and a family room. This is not directed to you at all - I am sure you are much more sensible than that

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

True, but in Melbourne, the average is close to $700k. I earn what is considered an average wage. I cannot afford that average house.

Interestingly enough having a look at the figures above we bought a house in Sydney in 1980 for 65,000 which was pretty much the average price then. They only took Mr FM's salary into account and at that point he was earning 50% above the average salary. We could only just afford to buy the house on his salary, although of course we had it easy because I was earning the same as him and didn't have children for many years afterwards in spite of what the bank thought.

So even then you couldn't buy an average house on an average salary. Most people I knew were going into units for around $30,000 on an average salary,

 

[TomVexille]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Well they can in Canberra - feel like moving .

when I first bought I couldn't have afforded an average house on an average salary either. In fact I was on an above average salary and I had to move 50km from where I worked to be able to afford to buy in Sydney. It was also a rubbish area - I lived right next to the railway line, but if I came back at night I got off at the station before (which was manned) and got a taxi because it was too dangerous to walk. (This was in 1977)

I am not saying it isn't really hard at the moment - particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, but I also think there are opportunities for people who are prepared to sacrifice size and location to get a foot in the door and then build up slowly to what they actually want.

I come across too many of my kids friend who are desperate to get off the rental roundabout but want to start with a new house with an ensuite and a family room. This is not directed to you at all - I am sure you are much more sensible than that

Interestingly enough having a look at the figures above we bought a house in Sydney in 1980 for 65,000 which was pretty much the average price then. They only took Mr FM's salary into account and at that point he was earning 50% above the average salary. We could only just afford to buy the house on his salary, although of course we had it easy because I was earning the same as him and didn't have children for many years afterwards in spite of what the bank thought.

So even then you couldn't buy an average house on an average salary. Most people I knew were going into units for around $30,000 on an average salary,

Fair call. We're looking at what we can afford and while it's not much I think we can be happy with it.

 

[RAM]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Yet today, two people on average salaries can't really afford an average house

Never use average, use median. If you ever see someone using avg for some comparison then you know it is generally 'post-truth' aka misleading.

Simple example: 5 houses sold @ 400K, 420K, 450K, 460K and 5,800K

Median price = 450K

Avg price = 1,506K

Which is more representative of the prices? Median = middle figure - has the same number of observations above the number as below it.

Part of the problem is that most people have an 'arithmetic' brain not geometric.

Confused???

Many when asked "If you make 15% on your money a year for 4 years then how much have you made?" answer 60% (a private survey run by a fund mgmt house annually, > 70-80% result each year).

The reality is 75%. They add the figures not compound them.

Switch to the property market.

Look at Sydney for example. Most Expensive/ most popular suburbs have not really changed since the late 1950s or early 60s. Harbourside or beach-side areas. The land area in those suburbs has not increased as curiously enough these were often the same suburbs that were first settled in the 1850-70s.

However the population of Sydney has gone up significantly.

Surprisingly, the land area available for housing in the inner-Sydney ring has actually FALLEN since then?

Why? Toll roads, motor ways, road widening, some hospital/University/TAFE/medical practises/pre-schools/daycare/schools.

With a smaller land area available for housing AND the 1960s medium/high rise that was already added to them (Zetland anyone, Blues Point Tower etc etc) have meant that the ease of adding more high rise to infrastructure constrained areas is lacking DESPITE WHAT THE DEVELOPERS/lobbyists/donors may say.

Did you know that in the early 2000s 5 of the top 10 donors to both major political parties were?:

• Leightons
• Lend Lease
• Meriton
• Mirvac
• Westfield

If 12% of a significantly smaller population could live in these areas in the 1960s then with a population significantly greater (and a much higher proportion of 'empty' houses/units today as bolt holes from China predominantly) then the percentage is now around 5%.

A bit like the price of a bottle of 1972 Grange being more expensive than a 2015 bottle. Time for a political witch hunt on Grange prices as well...


vs London or New York?

Even before the GFC - you could buy a house 15 km out of New York for less than a house on a smaller parcel of land in Sydney, 20 km out, 30km out etc. Commuting times and frequency of train service were significantly better for NY than Sydney as well.

Very similar result in the UK with London, except within the 5km circle but arguably Sydney waterfront homes also beat out all but three sales in that circle.

Difference is that those Govts do not seem to be ruled, to the same extent, by their donors. Google London Cross rail and see how for a lower price per km London is tunneling under central London with less than 5cm clearances vs existing tunnels and stations than the above ground CSELR is being done in Sydney above ground.

One major difference is the capacity of the London is above 50,000 passengers/hour (targeting above 34 trains one way/hours, allowing for trains to be 2 carriages longer than present, travelling on avg 4-5 times faster than the CSELR).

The CSELR will carry at 'crush capacity' around 6,750 with 15/hour possibly (not feasible actually) 18.5 in the 2030s.

There's a lot more going on to cause the 'crisis' than reaches the public domain.

 

[TomVexille]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Did you know that in the early 2000s 5 of the top 10 donors to both major political parties were?:

• Leightons
• Lend Lease
• Meriton
• Mirvac
• Westfield

Actually I did. I think you told me already

I'm not trying to blame people who are using the rules to their advantage because they can, after all, I would too if I could, but both parties have sold out this country for their own gains (which is not unusual anywhere).

 

[Flying mermaid]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Fair call. We're looking at what we can afford and while it's not much I think we can be happy with it.

Terific - I wish you the best of luck with all my heart and hope you will eventually be able to move to something you really love,

 

[Steady]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

True, but in Melbourne, the average is close to $700k. I earn what is considered an average wage. I cannot afford that average house.

That's getting easier to agree with, so apart from winning the lottery or coming across some unexpected inheritance, it seems you will have to rent, or compromise*?

You could always quit work, have heaps of kids, and get a free housing commission house

*buy something well below average, buy in a lower class neighbourhood, make do with less rooms, buy something older and renovate it yourself, buy further out and travel longer to get to work, put a hobby on hold, change your current lifestyle, go without something else, put up with not having enough furniture for the first 5 years - and then get second hand stuff, shop at Big W, get a second job, grow a crop, send TV off to mow the neighbours lawn.... :shock:

 

[blackcat20]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Terific - I wish you the best of luck with all my heart and hope you will eventually be able to move to something you really love,

It's not where we would have chosen to live, but I think somewhere we can make a really great home for ourselves. Just waiting for a phonecall I was promised I would receive this morning...

 

[Steady]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

Fair call. We're looking at what we can afford and while it's not much I think we can be happy with it.

That is a positive attitude, and it will get you both a long way. I also wish you well - it is a nice feeling to have a house that is yours (even if it is the banks...)

 

[TomVexille]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

*buy something well below average, buy in a lower class neighbourhood, make do with less rooms, buy something older and renovate it yourself, buy further out and travel longer to get to work, put a hobby on hold, change your current lifestyle, go without something else, put up with not having enough furniture for the first 5 years - and then get second hand stuff, shop at Big W, get a second job, grow a crop, send TV off to mow the neighbours lawn.... :shock:

We're doing some of those. Not having enough furniture is one. Lifestyle will certainly change with the upcoming plans. I may have to take up mowing lawns

Buying older is nearly impossible now as the really ratty houses are sold as "development potential" and sell WAY above what they're worth, and the rest have already been renovated by someone looking for a profit.

Terific - I wish you the best of luck with all my heart and hope you will eventually be able to move to something you really love,

Thanks, we appreciate it

 

[Steady]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

I may have to take up mowing lawns

Suggesting BC20 pimp you out was a joke - maybe I should have added more emojis :shock: :shock: :shock:

 

[blackcat20]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

That's getting easier to agree with, so apart from winning the lottery or coming across some unexpected inheritance, it seems you will have to rent, or compromise*?

You could always quit work, have heaps of kids, and get a free housing commission house

*buy something well below average, buy in a lower class neighbourhood, make do with less rooms, buy something older and renovate it yourself, buy further out and travel longer to get to work, put a hobby on hold, change your current lifestyle, go without something else, put up with not having enough furniture for the first 5 years - and then get second hand stuff, shop at Big W, get a second job, grow a crop, send TV off to mow the neighbours lawn.... :shock:

We're doing some of those. Not having enough furniture is one. Lifestyle will certainly change with the upcoming plans. I may have to take up mowing lawns

Furniture definitely! We have one hand-me-down couch (that I hate) and my mum's dining table which has orange/brown striped chairs (its from the 70s of course). But we manage.
Driving to work will definitely be longer than it is now but the space will be worth it.

 

[cove]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

We rented a two bedroom flat near where we were working and studying. After a couple of years we had saved a house deposit as I worked Saturdays to help the savings plan. Mrscove finished her degree and we got stuck into saving for a home. I don't think much has changed.
I do miss the view we had of the drive in bottle shop of the Manning Hotel where we had regular break ins to watch from our bedroom many nights.