Article: Have Australians Stopped Flying to the USA? Here’s What the Data Says…

[RooFlyer]

Down 6%? Thought it would be more. 6% is hardly newsworthy.

If an airline had its loadings reduced by 6% and within a general downward trend,
that would certainly would be newsworthy and of concern to them.

 

[justinbrett]

If an airline had its loadings reduced by 6% and within a general downward trend,
that would certainly would be newsworthy and of concern to them.

But it wasn’t a downwards trend year on year. It was two years of growth at 16% each, and this is the first full year of a decline at 6%.

Given the economic conditions generally and specifically the doomsday predictions of decline in visits to the US, 6% is far from what many were expecting.

Talk of aircraft loadings is irrelevant - that’s about controlling profitability with capacity and fares, rather than overall visitor numbers.

 

[RooFlyer]

But it wasn’t a downwards trend year on year. It was two years of growth at 16% each, and this is the first full year of a decline at 6%.

Given the economic conditions generally and specifically the doomsday predictions of decline in visits to the US, 6% is far from what many were expecting.

That’s a bit of hair splitting. A 6% decline in loading overall if it was reflected in an airline’s own loading as I said, certainly would be ‘newsworthy’ and attract the airline's attention - that’s all. Whether or not it was worse than expected really doesn’t affect the fact that it has declined that much and no airline would like it. It’s not a criticism of the airline, just pretty much a statement of economic fact.

 

[dajop]

The other thing about the Australian data, don't forget that Jetstar pulled out of HNL completely last year - in May (MEL flights) and Oct (SYD flights). Given that JQ probably largely carried Australian visitors (rather than US visitors to Australia) , that's removing about 9,000 seats a month, perhapsonly a couple of thousand replaced by additional Qantas capacity.

Lower demand = less supply, and less supply = lower demand.

With about 80,000 visitors a month from Australia to US, that's almost 10% less there.

 

[justinbrett]

That’s a bit of hair splitting. A 6% decline in loading overall if it was reflected in an airline’s own loading as I said, certainly would be ‘newsworthy’ and attract the airline's attention - that’s all. Whether or not it was worse than expected really doesn’t affect the fact that it has declined that much and no airline would like it. It’s not a criticism of the airline, just pretty much a statement of economic fact.

You said aircraft loading - loads going from 90% to 84% is different to pax numbers for a route going down 6% but the airline reduces capacity to accommodate and moves capacity to more profitable routes.

What's the stats on visitor numbers to other countries? How much of this is global or Australian local (economic) factors? I bet travel to Europe is down more than 6% in recent months.