Airfares to US to drop?

[levelnine]

There has some hype a week or 2 ago that "never before have so many Aussies travelled to the US"

The US Department of Commerce's latest data shows international arrivals from Australia in June 2025 were down 10.2% compared to June 2024. Overall international arrivals is down 3.4%.

 

[Saab34]

I wonder where capacity sits vs last year, I assume it’s down.

Having a look at loads today and the past few days, Brisbane is a bit weaker compared to the others, Qantas A380 is also a bit lighter in Y on all routes, PE very light.

Best performer seems to be United from Melbourne and Sydney in all cabins. Can’t see Delta seat maps.

I guess we will hear more perhaps at the QF results this month in terms of any challenges.

 

[blackcat20]

Some decent specials around, we got four of us to LA and back next northern summer for $4500.

 

[CaptJCool]

Some decent specials around, we got four of us to LA and back next northern summer for $4500.

Sounds very post 9/11 fare pricing …

 

[blackcat20]

Sounds very post 9/11 fare pricing …

Haven't seen it that cheap in years so we jumped on it. We had planned to look for Y+ on another airline but the savings were too good to ignore.

 

[RSD]

A while has passed since this thread was started.

Months ago there was a lot of noise in the media and besides conjecture actual facts quoted by travel industry sources about a serious decline in forward bookings (40%) and some hotels/motels and hospitality businesses threatened with closure due to cessation of travel from Canada in particular but.also Europe. In addition quite a few airline frequencies were reduced across the northern border.

I'm curious given the media cycle has moved on what is the current state of affairs? There has some hype a week or 2 ago that "never before have so many Aussies travelled to the US" but I also note UA seems to be giving away seats in competitions to try and stimulate business from AU.to LAX, particularly QLD.

Anyone got some actual facts as to what happened over the last 6 months and the current state of play?

I think a lot of people might be waiting for him to lower airfares by 1500% like he recently said he was going to do with pharmaceuticals...

 

[Forg]

And yet there are still millions around the world who still think he is God

It makes sense!
Everything he does & says is a test … failed businesses, dealing with all his lies & criminal activities, all the selling-out of his country, it’s all a test!

Back to the topic, my aunt & uncle (she is Strayan, he has a US passport but moved here at about age 5 so has a Strayan accent) have been on their “trip of a lifetime” for about 6 months now, lots of staying in the USA with extended family but also lots of trips to other Northern Hemisphere places. So about a half-dozen entries into the US.
Now admittedly they’re (sadly misinformed & deluded) Trump fanbois, but still, they haven’t been sent to El Salvador yet.

 

[MelbFlyer]

I think overall demand has dropped a little bit, if the CR+ price is anything to go by.

This is MEL to LAX, in 02/2026.



CR+ @ 47k pts compared to a regular CR seat at 48.2k (even if via SYD).

I'm one who doesn't really care about the current administration, in fact, the last time I went to the U.S. was in Trump 1.0.

If fares stay cheap and if my plans align next year, I'd still go - Trump or not.

 

[PineappleSkip]

There is a boatload of data about overseas arrivals and departures on ABS data explorer. Just looking at short term (visit) resident returns, for the US in May 2025 was 69,310, compared with May 2024 considerably lower at 64,210. There are short term fluctuations; April 2025 returns from US were down compared with last year, March 2025 were up. I don’t really see any overall decline. June numbers should come out in about a week.

 

[Maca44]

In regard to boarder crossings between Canada and USA, I am currently in Vancouver and last week drove down to Ellensburg just east of Seattle. To add a couple of hours to my life, I ususally cross the boarder at Sumas and come out via Bellingham, and there were zero cars in front of me. On the return leg back into Canada there was only one car in front of me. In the many many times I have been to the USA and probably crossed the boarder 15 times I have never seen it this light. I did not even see any trucks going through. Sign of the times, and unfortunately businesses south of the boarder are suffering because Canadians now refuse to trave and shop there. Quite sad actually.

 

[RSD]

Yep - I'm not sure which day but U.S. inflation data is due out one day in the coming week - will be interesting...

Tuesday evening Aust. time is when the U.S. CPI data for July comes out - June was 2.7%, analyst prediction for July is 2.8% - lets hope that it doesn't start with a 3 or the share markets might be in for a world of hurt.

 

[Forg]

Tuesday evening Aust. time is when the U.S. CPI data for July comes out - June was 2.7%, analyst prediction for July is 2.8% - lets hope that it doesn't start with a 3 or the share markets might be in for a world of hurt.

The published number likely depends on where in the buy vs sell cycle Trump and his minions & puppeteers are at … whether they’re trying to tank the US economy to make things cheaper to buy, or boost it in order to sell at a high-point. But it’s hard to know what their goal is ‘til after they’ve moved their checkers pieces around the chess board.

 

[AuSammy]

Tuesday evening Aust. time is when the U.S. CPI data for July comes out - June was 2.7%, analyst prediction for July is 2.8% - lets hope that it doesn't start with a 3 or the share markets might be in for a world of hurt.

Given one of the chief statisticians recently just got sacked for not fudging figures, possibly the latest figures will be whatever the administration wants them to be.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

Given one of the chief statisticians recently just got sacked for not fudging figures, possibly the latest figures will be whatever the administration wants them to be.

The labour statistician was found to be manipulating the data actually: Trump offers data to justify firing of labor stats chief - Breitbart

 

[AuSammy]

The labour statistician was found to be manipulating the data actually: Trump offers data to justify firing of labor stats chief - Breitbart

Umm. That source you quoted is Breitbart. Enough said

 

[RSD]

Any chance of discussing the topic ? Airfares to the USA as a reminder

Where's the fun in that?

In all seriousness, whether airfares to the U.S. drop much further will depend on demand, and there are a few things that are going to affect demand including -

• the (perceived) way that visitors to the U.S. are being treated when they arrive there
• the strength of the AUD against the USD - which is very hard to predict for a couple of reasons at the moment

There doesn't even seem like the slightest attempt is being made at the moment to counter the negative press or improve the perceptions that people have of how they might be greeted when they arrive in the U.S. - possibly because that doesn't fit with the strong man who is cracking down on immigration persona.

Trying to pick what is going to happen with the U.S. dollar is pretty impossible for two reasons -

• the U.S. Fed is likely to find itself in the position very shortly where it needs to lower interest rates to counter rising unemployment - while at the same time needing to raise interest rates to control rising inflation (caused by tariffs).
• What DT wants with the value of the U.S. dollar is (to put it nicely) unclear - he seems to want it to both drop significantly and go higher - for different economic reasons, which is somewhat similar to his wants with the price of oil where he keeps saying "drill baby drill" - which needs oil prices up around at least US$80 per barrel or higher before oil companies are going to be wanting to spend money on exploration etc, but at the same time he wants low oil prices such as we have now in the low US$60's per barrel in order to control inflation. To further confuse his messy wishes for the oil price are the tariffs that he imposed on India due to them purchasing Russian oil - which has really got everyone confused because a) buying Russian oil isn't banned or sanctioned by any country, the only restrictions are that it cannot be purchased for any higher than US$60 per barrel - which is probably about what a barrel of Urals crude is worth anyway at the moment, and b) because if India stopped buying the 1.7 million bbls of Russian crude per day and instead bought it elsewhere then that would drive world oil prices up to somewhere around US$180-200 per barrel as the available supply just isn't there - and that would send inflation skyrocketing in the U.S. which would leave the U.S. Fed little choice but to raise interest rates - which would upset his majesty and increase the value of the U.S. dollar.

 

[RSD]

It seems like things are pretty arbitrary over there - NZ Woman & Son detained

 

[Phoenix-1]

Seems like these things (lengthy detentions for minor infractions) seem to only have happened under a Trump admin, even including his first term. I've tried searching but had no success in finding any examples of this happening under another admin. Has anyone got any examples?

 

[SYD]

It seems like things are pretty arbitrary over there - NZ Woman & Son detained

But she was already living and working in Nth Am. That’s more problematic than mum and dad from Oz taking the kids to Disney Land.

My recent arrival in HNL was probably the easiest, fastest entry ever (over decades of multiple trips per year).

Back to topic, HA just announced they’re increasing flights to/from Oz due to increased demand (and sluggish loads from Korea).

 

[justinbrett]

Back to topic, HA just announced they’re increasing flights to/from Oz due to increased demand (and sluggish loads from Korea).

No doubt also positioning to get a slice of the oneworld traffic between AU & US.