Airfares to US to drop?

[levelnine]

There has some hype a week or 2 ago that "never before have so many Aussies travelled to the US"

The US Department of Commerce's latest data shows international arrivals from Australia in June 2025 were down 10.2% compared to June 2024. Overall international arrivals is down 3.4%.

 

[Saab34]

I wonder where capacity sits vs last year, I assume it’s down.

Having a look at loads today and the past few days, Brisbane is a bit weaker compared to the others, Qantas A380 is also a bit lighter in Y on all routes, PE very light.

Best performer seems to be United from Melbourne and Sydney in all cabins. Can’t see Delta seat maps.

I guess we will hear more perhaps at the QF results this month in terms of any challenges.

 

[blackcat20]

Some decent specials around, we got four of us to LA and back next northern summer for $4500.

 

[CaptJCool]

Some decent specials around, we got four of us to LA and back next northern summer for $4500.

Sounds very post 9/11 fare pricing …

 

[blackcat20]

Sounds very post 9/11 fare pricing …

Haven't seen it that cheap in years so we jumped on it. We had planned to look for Y+ on another airline but the savings were too good to ignore.

 

[RSD]

A while has passed since this thread was started.

Months ago there was a lot of noise in the media and besides conjecture actual facts quoted by travel industry sources about a serious decline in forward bookings (40%) and some hotels/motels and hospitality businesses threatened with closure due to cessation of travel from Canada in particular but.also Europe. In addition quite a few airline frequencies were reduced across the northern border.

I'm curious given the media cycle has moved on what is the current state of affairs? There has some hype a week or 2 ago that "never before have so many Aussies travelled to the US" but I also note UA seems to be giving away seats in competitions to try and stimulate business from AU.to LAX, particularly QLD.

Anyone got some actual facts as to what happened over the last 6 months and the current state of play?

I think a lot of people might be waiting for him to lower airfares by 1500% like he recently said he was going to do with pharmaceuticals...

 

[Cruiser Elite]

I think a lot of people might be waiting for him to lower airfares by 1500% like he recently said he was going to do with pharmaceuticals...

And yet there are still millions around the world who still think he is God

Some of them even inhabit AFF - 3 x double

 

[Forg]

And yet there are still millions around the world who still think he is God

It makes sense!
Everything he does & says is a test … failed businesses, dealing with all his lies & criminal activities, all the selling-out of his country, it’s all a test!

Back to the topic, my aunt & uncle (she is Strayan, he has a US passport but moved here at about age 5 so has a Strayan accent) have been on their “trip of a lifetime” for about 6 months now, lots of staying in the USA with extended family but also lots of trips to other Northern Hemisphere places. So about a half-dozen entries into the US.
Now admittedly they’re (sadly misinformed & deluded) Trump fanbois, but still, they haven’t been sent to El Salvador yet.

 

[Warragul]

The US Department of Commerce's latest data shows international arrivals from Australia in June 2025 were down 10.2% compared to June 2024. Overall international arrivals is down 3.4%.

Will the statistician still be in a job?

 

[RSD]

Will the statistician still be in a job?

Depends on how well the statistician reads the messaging...

 

[Forg]

Depends on how well the statistician reads the messaging...

Drop the “well” …

 

[MelbFlyer]

I think overall demand has dropped a little bit, if the CR+ price is anything to go by.

This is MEL to LAX, in 02/2026.



CR+ @ 47k pts compared to a regular CR seat at 48.2k (even if via SYD).

I'm one who doesn't really care about the current administration, in fact, the last time I went to the U.S. was in Trump 1.0.

If fares stay cheap and if my plans align next year, I'd still go - Trump or not.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Depends on how well the statistician reads the messaging...

It used to be lies, damned lies, and statistics. Now it’s just lies.

 

[RSD]

It used to be lies, damned lies, and statistics. Now it’s just lies.

Yep - I'm not sure which day but U.S. inflation data is due out one day in the coming week - will be interesting...

 

[DejaBrew]

Yep - I'm not sure which day but U.S. inflation data is due out one day in the coming week - will be interesting...

You can pretty much guarantee it will be a "beautiful" number, whatever it ends up being

 

[RSD]

You can pretty much guarantee it will be a "beautiful" number, whatever it ends up being

Absolutely - and right on forecast - just like last month's - I'm just not sure whose forecast!

 

[PineappleSkip]

There is a boatload of data about overseas arrivals and departures on ABS data explorer. Just looking at short term (visit) resident returns, for the US in May 2025 was 69,310, compared with May 2024 considerably lower at 64,210. There are short term fluctuations; April 2025 returns from US were down compared with last year, March 2025 were up. I don’t really see any overall decline. June numbers should come out in about a week.

 

[Maca44]

In regard to boarder crossings between Canada and USA, I am currently in Vancouver and last week drove down to Ellensburg just east of Seattle. To add a couple of hours to my life, I ususally cross the boarder at Sumas and come out via Bellingham, and there were zero cars in front of me. On the return leg back into Canada there was only one car in front of me. In the many many times I have been to the USA and probably crossed the boarder 15 times I have never seen it this light. I did not even see any trucks going through. Sign of the times, and unfortunately businesses south of the boarder are suffering because Canadians now refuse to trave and shop there. Quite sad actually.