Airfares to US to drop?

[RSD]

The published number likely depends on where in the buy vs sell cycle Trump and his minions & puppeteers are at … whether they’re trying to tank the US economy to make things cheaper to buy, or boost it in order to sell at a high-point. But it’s hard to know what their goal is ‘til after they’ve moved their checkers pieces around the chess board.

Yep. The scepticism around U.S. figures now is probably going to be similar to scepticism of Chinese data.

 

[AuSammy]

Tuesday evening Aust. time is when the U.S. CPI data for July comes out - June was 2.7%, analyst prediction for July is 2.8% - lets hope that it doesn't start with a 3 or the share markets might be in for a world of hurt.

Given one of the chief statisticians recently just got sacked for not fudging figures, possibly the latest figures will be whatever the administration wants them to be.

 

[Haplo]

Imagine the head of ABS got sacked in Australia because the government didn't like the number - we would have an all out protest.

 

[RSD]

Imagine the head of ABS got sacked in Australia because the government didn't like the number - we would have an all out protest.

What I'm struggling with is that the guy who is going around claiming that he reduced the price of pharmaceuticals by 1500% has sacked a statistician because he reckons her numbers are wrong...

 

[Forg]

Imagine the head of ABS got sacked in Australia because the government didn't like the number - we would have an all out protest.

I’d like to believe this was true … but I reckon more likely we’d have a whinge on AFF and then get on with our lives.

 

[AuSammy]

but I reckon more likely we’d have a whinge on AFF

 

[RSD]

I’d like to believe this was true … but I reckon more likely we’d have a whinge on AFF - blame Qantas management and then get on with our lives.

Fixed.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

Given one of the chief statisticians recently just got sacked for not fudging figures, possibly the latest figures will be whatever the administration wants them to be.

The labour statistician was found to be manipulating the data actually: Trump offers data to justify firing of labor stats chief - Breitbart

 

[Phoenix-1]

That's funny, he said it was his opinion that the data was faked to start with. Then again, the opinions of dictators often very quickly become "facts".

 

[AuSammy]

The labour statistician was found to be manipulating the data actually: Trump offers data to justify firing of labor stats chief - Breitbart

Umm. That source you quoted is Breitbart. Enough said

 

[clifford]

The labour statistician was found to be manipulating the data actually

I hope you weren't being serious.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

 

[clifford]

View attachment 463953

What's the point you are trying to make?

 

[Forg]

What's the point you are trying to make?

Dude, chemtrails!!!

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Any chance of discussing the topic ? Airfares to the USA as a reminder

 

[RSD]

Any chance of discussing the topic ? Airfares to the USA as a reminder

Where's the fun in that?

In all seriousness, whether airfares to the U.S. drop much further will depend on demand, and there are a few things that are going to affect demand including -

• the (perceived) way that visitors to the U.S. are being treated when they arrive there
• the strength of the AUD against the USD - which is very hard to predict for a couple of reasons at the moment

There doesn't even seem like the slightest attempt is being made at the moment to counter the negative press or improve the perceptions that people have of how they might be greeted when they arrive in the U.S. - possibly because that doesn't fit with the strong man who is cracking down on immigration persona.

Trying to pick what is going to happen with the U.S. dollar is pretty impossible for two reasons -

• the U.S. Fed is likely to find itself in the position very shortly where it needs to lower interest rates to counter rising unemployment - while at the same time needing to raise interest rates to control rising inflation (caused by tariffs).
• What DT wants with the value of the U.S. dollar is (to put it nicely) unclear - he seems to want it to both drop significantly and go higher - for different economic reasons, which is somewhat similar to his wants with the price of oil where he keeps saying "drill baby drill" - which needs oil prices up around at least US$80 per barrel or higher before oil companies are going to be wanting to spend money on exploration etc, but at the same time he wants low oil prices such as we have now in the low US$60's per barrel in order to control inflation. To further confuse his messy wishes for the oil price are the tariffs that he imposed on India due to them purchasing Russian oil - which has really got everyone confused because a) buying Russian oil isn't banned or sanctioned by any country, the only restrictions are that it cannot be purchased for any higher than US$60 per barrel - which is probably about what a barrel of Urals crude is worth anyway at the moment, and b) because if India stopped buying the 1.7 million bbls of Russian crude per day and instead bought it elsewhere then that would drive world oil prices up to somewhere around US$180-200 per barrel as the available supply just isn't there - and that would send inflation skyrocketing in the U.S. which would leave the U.S. Fed little choice but to raise interest rates - which would upset his majesty and increase the value of the U.S. dollar.