AFF Member Stock Discussion

[RSD]

The world is moving into a bit of chaos with oil and copper dropping sharply @RSD.
If iron ore and coal both tank Australia will be wishing it had banked some of the good times post Covid.
Meanwhile we had Judo get hit with a wall of sellers. That one is JDO.

Yes indeed - and in January DT pleaded for OPEC+ to raise oil production to lower prices - and now the Saudis are delivering that with spades and big smiles on their faces as they know that WTI at $56.20 like it is as I write this will force a lot of U.S. oil production to cease as the Permian fields etc need WTI at $70 to be profitable enough for companies to keep drilling new wells.

AUQ is a share that seems to defy logic, science, the copper price and the share market - and it does the head in of its shareholders - not helped by its management probably being the worst communicators of any company on the entire ASX.

There is certainly a massive amount of chaos doing the rounds at the moment - and there are plenty of flashpoints appearing at the moment that could add massively to the chaos - India-Pakistan, Israel-Iran, etc

The problem with Australia is that we are governed by people whose thinking is governed by election cycles - and until that changes then Australia is going to continue to go backwards in real terms.

I wonder how the penguins are going in their trade negotiations with the U.S. to get their 10% tariff rescinded?

 

[RSD]

The biggest problem facing the world at the moment is that these seems to be a complete lack of understanding of macro economic fundamentals amongst the current leadership in the U.S.

 

[Quickstatus]

We are up on PLT

Theyto depend on solar and battery loans and novated leases which might get a boost as Albo wants to subsidise batteries

 

[ramamba]

depend on solar and battery loans and novated leases

Solar and battery has always been their smallest vertical. The main ones are personal and automotive is by far the largest. Personal also includes unsecured auto lending. They started as direct to consumer, but now most originations are via broker and partner network.

Plenti PLT needs to make a lot more money out of their loan portfolio. Growth is one thing but profitability is the winner.

Agree. Growth should be good with NAB partnership, but since NAB is bearing credit risk margins would remain skinny. They also historically had this selective targeting of 'prime' borrowers, certainly helped them in 2020.

One thing that puzzled me was the founder stepping down last year, I don't think it was well telegraphed to the market. He is still on the board though.

 

[cove]

We decided to get some Regal Funds shares last month. That is RF1 and RPL.
We averaged down on Judo Capital which is JDO after they got hit with lots of sellers.
Have not done that with IPH yet but am considering it.
Going to an ASX legal discussion on Tuesday then Woodside on Thursday.

 

[RSD]

Going to an ASX legal discussion on Tuesday then Woodside on Thursday.

Our win at the Takeovers Panel against Alara Resources might come up in the discussion.

 

[cove]

Well @RSD it isn’t too late for you to fly over to Perth to attend this ASX legal discussion on Tuesday. It is hosted by Steinepreis Paganin at Parmelia Hilton at 2pm on Tuesday.
Now we had Meg from Woodside at the West Coast Fever netball yesterday looking relaxed before her Thursday AGM. Not sure how that will go because there could be a bit of a ruckus getting into the meeting.

 

[MARTINE]

Well @RSD it isn’t too late for you to fly over to Perth to attend this ASX legal discussion on Tuesday. It is hosted by Steinpreis Paganin at Parmelia Hilton at 2pm on Tuesday.
Now we had Meg from Woodside at the West Coast Fever netball yesterday looking relaxed before her Thursday AGM. Not sure how that will go because there could be a bit of a ruckus getting into the meeting.

Thanks Cove
Will be looking out for your WDS report from the other side of the world. Lets hope Meg will not be the only one smiling

 

[RSD]

Well @RSD it isn’t too late for you to fly over to Perth to attend this ASX legal discussion on Tuesday. It is hosted by Steinpreis Paganin at Parmelia Hilton at 2pm on Tuesday.

A bit late notice for me unfortunately on this occasion.

 

[cove]

We drove in to Crown and Mrscove had to hand in her A4 sized bag for security to hold. I got reviewed for the IPad that I was carrying. We were denied access to the meeting because I had not filed my company representative form in time.

 

[Quickstatus]

APE nicely up today.

 

[cove]

Well @Quickstatus you mentioned ORI which is Orica a while ago. Today they had a pretty good report. We hold them long term just like Transurban which is TCL. At today’s prices we don’t need to buy more. Transurban are doing a layoff which is disappointing for those staff.
So today after being unable to get into that Woodside meeting we had a pretty good day in the market.
Apparently there was a crowd with whistles to mess with meeting so we missed getting our eardrums tested.
In the tiddler department we are happy with Energy Action’s progress report. That is EAX and they are thinly traded.

 

[Quickstatus]

I think TCL now more or less fully valued for those wanting to get in
ORI looks good with its earnings growth so far. Possibly subdued moving forward?

 

[cove]

If TCL were to receive a takeover bid it would have to be close to $20 to get any traction.
Orica is a pretty good business and we have been there for a long time.
In Perth we have no toll roads so when we are in the eastern states I like the idea of getting some of the toll revenue by being a shareholder.

 

[ncm]

Good one @Buzzard. I do hope that you are enjoying retirement,
Austal is cough dividend and one of my mates has many of them. I had always felt it was a bit risky as they are dealing with the US.
The ASX futures were down 132 so today may be tough

We sold Austal which is ASB so that takes the monkey off their back.

Hi @cove - we met many years ago (c.2013 maybe) at an AFF London catch-up with @Flashback. I want to say thanks for bringing Austal to my attention in your post above in 2023. Even though they have had their issues with the US government (as you foretold back then) I thought they had a pretty decent business case with the world going the way it is and defence being prioritised.

They did struggle for a while but boy-oh-boy have they taken off in the past 6-9 months (if you did that via your selling then double kudos to you - hopefully your mate held on to them though). I'd be keen to hear your/his thoughts on where they go from here. The story is compelling with the Orange Man in charge (plus a large order book, expansion in the US and increasing Korean investment) but they have run up very hard.

Regardless, I definitely owe you a drink if we ever cross paths again. Many thanks!

 

[Quickstatus]

I didnt perceive a drop in toll traffic at the peak of interest rates.

 

[Mr_Orange]

If TCL were to receive a takeover bid

Is that likely?

it would have to be close to $20 to get any traction.

Agreed. I'm also a TCL holder.

 

[Quickstatus]

I'm also a TCL holder.

Luckily my super fund is a major TCL holder.

 

[Mr_Orange]

I notice that Maas Group (ASX:MGH) posted a good rally, nearly 11%, today after a fairly strong run down in recent weeks.

 

[cove]

My friend still holds his Austal shares. He has lots. We sold ours.
We have Veem which is a supplier to Austal.
Twiggy has Austal too.
Gosh AFF in London in 2013 with you @ncm and @Flashback ….such a memory. Mrscove loves London so we will keep going there.