34,000 aircraft required in next 20 years to cope with demand

[OZDUCK]

We certainly have a flat pad of immense distances, however we also have a country the size of western Europe where they have 300+ million people to support their great rail networks. 22 million people can't support a similar network here and never will be able to. As for our myriad of semi trailers, Europe still uses them in greater numbers proportionally than we do despite the number of rail networks they have.

Agreed - you just have to drive on the Autobahns around Stuttgart where the right lane is usually a solid line of trucks.

 

[juddles]

We certainly have a flat pad of immense distances, however we also have a country the size of western Europe where they have 300+ million people to support their great rail networks. 22 million people can't support a similar network here and never will be able to. As for our myriad of semi trailers, Europe still uses them in greater numbers proportionally than we do despite the number of rail networks they have.

I must disagree.

Trains have always been, and will always be, far cheaper for freight than trucks. The rail lines exist. Australia is tied to trucks for labour reasons.

 

[Franky]

Agreed - you just have to drive on the Autobahns around Stuttgart where the right lane is usually a solid line of trucks.

Or worse, around Milan, where sometimes they are several lanes nose to tail. The Greenies would die if they saw the exhaust fumes coming from these vehicles..

 

[Franky]

I must disagree.

Trains have always been, and will always be, far cheaper for freight than trucks. The rail lines exist. Australia is tied to trucks for labour reasons.

You can disagree all you like Juddles, and I wont argue about the cost. But when you have a single rail line from say about Port Augusta or Port Pirie across the Nullabor and as far north as Gerladton in WA, that leaves vast areas where there are no rail lines in existence. From Geraldton all the way north to FNQ there are no rail lines. And no matter how many trains you might have available, sooner or later, whatever is on the trains, ends up on trucks!

 

[Deleted member 29185]

sooner or later, whatever is on the trains, ends up on trucks!

It's not a debate about trains or trucks, it's a thought sequence about what the mix should be and which routes are suited to which transport method. There will always be trucks, but clogging our major motorways and highways with a continual flow of B-Doubles, each one with a driver (who like all humans make mistakes and tends to need sleep) and it's own diesel guzzling 600HP engine, is just plain madness. Electrified rail has been proven over many years in the mining sector, to be the most cost effective and efficient method to freight product over large distances.

A forward thinking government should be all over the need for a rapid and reliable rail network for both pax and freight and would indeed reduce the need for aircraft and for more (and extremely expensive) motorway upgrades. The biggest obstacle right now is the poor state of the tracks and governments are spending money on keeping motorists happy (well, semi-happy) by spending on roads, which in a relatively short period of time need more money as the upgraded roads then fill with more cars and trucks. It's always a catch up game, but eventually, someone will have to say "let's concentrate on the rail network and take the burden off the roads and airports".

Australian is ideally situated to take advantage of a high solar insolation level and reasonably shallow geothermal reserves to provide an ample supply of affordable, clean and renewable electricity to keep the whole network powered and insulated from global fuel pressures, but as long as we have governments tied blindly to sale of thermal coal, they're going to be reluctant to pursue the options ... oh, and it is affordable and it is sustainable and it is reliable, despite the misinformation that bandies about the place masquerading as credible.

 

[moa999]

The biggest issue with rail is the extra handling normally required.

Truck can drive depot to depot.
With rail it's normally depot to rail loading yard to rail unloading yard to depot

 

[Deleted member 29185]

The biggest issue with rail is the extra handling normally required.

Truck can drive depot to depot.
With rail it's normally depot to rail loading yard to rail unloading yard to depot

That just requires a change in thinking and logistics. Interstate trucks drive depot to depot with local delivery lorries utilised at either end as well as selected stops enroute. Efficient interstate rail would go rail yard depot to rail yard depot with local delivery lorries utilised at either end as well as selected stops enroute. The flaw in what currently happens is the doubling up of depots, which does not need to continue. The rail yard would have freight depots, which when you think about it, was what used to happen. In fact there are many, many business premises with old disused tracks entering their premises. The rail depots also do not have to be at the end of the line. They can be constructed just outside the various cities and sometimes located to service multiple cities (eg Brisbane, Ipswich, Gold Coast, Logan, Toowoomba and probably the Sunshine Coast may be serviced from a central rail depot). It's really not an issue. Local deliveries would continue to be serviced by the local courier network currently existing. The shipping industry is an example, where rail, ship and trucks integrate well and a version of containerisation of the freight rail network would see likely see many more efficiencies.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

ATR expects Asia Pacific to need 740 new turboprops over next 20 years - Australian Aviation

Boeing expects 42,730 new aircraft deliveries over next 20 years - Australian Aviation

It is an increase of 4.1 per cent from 41,030 new aircraft deliveries predicted in the 2017-2036 CMO, then known as the Current Market Outlook, published a year ago.

Boeing vice president of commercial marketing Randy Tinseth said passenger traffic was expected to grow at an average of 4.7 per cent a year for the next 20 years.

“For the first time in years, we are seeing economies growing in every region of the world,” Tinseth said in a statement.

“This synchronized growth is providing more stimulus for global air travel. We are seeing strong traffic trends not only in the emerging markets of China and India, but also the mature markets of Europe and North America.”

The global aviation fleet was expected to grow to 48,540 aircraft by 2037, with just 5,810 of the 24,400 aircraft currently in service to still be flying in 20 years time.

Single aisle aircraft was expected to comprise 69 per cent of the global fleet 20 years from now, with widebodies at 19 per cent and freighters at seven per cent. Regional jets’ share of the total fleet was expected to halve to five per cent.

Figures from Boeing showed there were currently more than 900 aircraft more than 25 years old.

And by the mid-2020s there would be more than 500 aircraft a year that will reach 25 years of age, which is double the current rate.

That would fuel the retirement wave.

Airlines in Asia Pacific represented about 40 per cent of expected new deliveries over the coming 20 years, with 16,930 new aircraft tipped to enter service in that period. The forecast for Asia Pacific was up from 16,050 new deliveries in the 2017-2036 CMO.

The region is expected to be the biggest travel market in the world and tipped to represent about 40 per cent of global passenger traffic by 2036, the CMO said.

 

[Melburnian1]

That just requires a change in thinking and logistics. Interstate trucks drive depot to depot with local delivery lorries utilised at either end as well as selected stops enroute. Efficient interstate rail would go rail yard depot to rail yard depot with local delivery lorries utilised at either end as well as selected stops enroute. The flaw in what currently happens is the doubling up of depots, which does not need to continue. The rail yard would have freight depots, which when you think about it, was what used to happen. In fact there are many, many business premises with old disused tracks entering their premises. The rail depots also do not have to be at the end of the line. They can be constructed just outside the various cities and sometimes located to service multiple cities (eg Brisbane, Ipswich, Gold Coast, Logan, Toowoomba and probably the Sunshine Coast may be serviced from a central rail depot). It's really not an issue. Local deliveries would continue to be serviced by the local courier network currently existing. The shipping industry is an example, where rail, ship and trucks integrate well and a version of containerisation of the freight rail network would see likely see many more efficiencies.

QUBE is one company that's doing this: new facilities south of Sydney. And there's SCT, which has well used quite new rail sidings at Barnawartha near Wodonga, and is longer established at Laverton (Vic) from where its trains depart most days for Perth. Plus there's another rail operator at Ettamogah noth of Albury, and QUBE is also at Harefield (between Wagga Wagga and Junee) and the Wagga industrial area at Bomen if I recall.

 

[BAM1748]

You can disagree all you like Juddles, and I wont argue about the cost. But when you have a single rail line from say about Port Augusta or Port Pirie across the Nullabor and as far north as Gerladton in WA, that leaves vast areas where there are no rail lines in existence. From Geraldton all the way north to FNQ there are no rail lines. And no matter how many trains you might have available, sooner or later, whatever is on the trains, ends up on trucks!

Work has commenced...... Inland Rail | Homepage

 

[Deleted member 29185]

Work has commenced...... Inland Rail | Homepage

That seems to be pretty much what the Wagners partially based Wellcamp Airport on. An upgraded inland rail link through that area to link Melbourne with Brisbane.

 

[BAM1748]

That seems to be pretty much what the Wagners partially based Wellcamp Airport on. An upgraded inland rail link through that area to link Melbourne with Brisbane.

It was but they may be waiting a long time as the Toowoomba to Brisbane section is going to be the last and most expensive section and is presently not fully funded.