34,000 aircraft required in next 20 years to cope with demand

[cosi]

Amazing

http://www.businesstraveller.com/bu...w-aircraft-required-next-20-years-cope-demand

 

[Mattg]

I would take anything that Airbus and Boeing says with a pinch of salt. After all, they're in the business of selling planes.

But yes, many new aircraft will be needed in the not too distant future.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

They also make claims about the number of personnel required - e.g. Australia urged to train 261,000 pilots for Asia Pacific by 2034:-

In its most recent forecast, Boeing predicted an additional 533,000 commercial airline pilots would be needed between now and 2034 and 584,000 maintenance technicians.

Almost half of those, or 261,000, will be required in the Asia Pacific region where much of the growth is occurring due to economic changes in China and India.

 

[clazman]

Would suggest a lot of carriers are sweating on aircraft assets and will get to point where the cost to maintain will be more that a replacement

 

[moa999]

Aircraft sales figures are always a combination of growth and replacement.
Eg. All 8 Qantas 787s are really just replacing the 5 747s they will retire.

I also think within Asia-Pac that airports will begin constraining the growth at some point, particularly at the major hubs

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Boeing forecasts 41,030 new aircraft deliveries over next two decades - Australian Aviation

The Boeing Current Market Outlook (CMO) for 2017-2036 said 41,030 aircraft would be delivered over the next two decades, with 57 per cent to be used for growth and the remainder as replacement of older airframes. The forecast represented US$6.05 trillion worth of aircraft at list prices.

Single aisle aircraft was expected to comprise about 75 per cent of the global fleet by 2036, compared with 64 per cent today, the report said.

LCCs were expected to total one-third of the world’s single aisle fleet by 2036, up from about a quarter currently.

The outlook for regional jets (less than 90 seats) and small widebody (200-300 seats) was lower compared with the prior year.

And in a change from previous CMO, the 2017-2036 no longer separates the medium widebody (300 to 400 seats) and large widebody (more than 400 seats) segments.

Instead, it forecasts demand for 3,160 aircraft in a new combined medium/large widebody segment, as well as an expected 920 widebody freighters.

Airlines in Asia Pacific represented about 40 per cent of expected new deliveries over the coming 20 years, with 16,050 new aircraft tipped to enter service in that period. The forecast for Asia was up from 13,460 new deliveries in the 2014 CMO.

The region is expected to be the biggest travel market in the world and tipped to represent about 40 per cent of global passenger traffic by 2036, the CMO said.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Boeing lifts forecasts for new pilots needed over next 20 years - Australian Aviation

 

[Melburnian1]

Within individual nations and sometimes across borders, high speed trains are helping to reduce demand for air travel (below what it would otherwise be.)

Look at the success of high speed trains in Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, mainland China, across the Chunnel...the list goes on.

Where is Australia? We should be on that list too.

I also take these forecasts by plane manufacturers with a huge grain of salt, because many of the 'new' planes required are replacements and airport runways are finite (at least at major hubs.) Not every traveller wants the RyanAir model of dumping passengers 60 or 80 kilometres from a major city CBD, or more.

 

[Quickstatus]

Within individual nations and sometimes across borders, high speed trains are helping to reduce demand for air travel (below what it would otherwise be.)

Look at the success of high speed trains in Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, mainland China, across the Chunnel...the list goes on.

Where is Australia? We should be on that list too.

I also take these forecasts by plane manufacturers with a huge grain of salt, because many of the 'new' planes required are replacements and airport runways are finite (at least at major hubs.) Not every traveller wants the RyanAir model of dumping passengers 60 or 80 kilometres from a major city CBD, or more.

I can imagine every town along the way will want to be connected to a Very Fast Train between MEL-SYD-BNE. By the time it accelerates its got to slow down again

Many hubs are a fair way away from the final destination as well.

But agree . Its unfortunate that train tracks are either left to rot, built over, ripped up over the years.

 

[Melburnian1]

I can imagine every town along the way will want to be connected to a Very Fast Train between MEL-SYD-BNE. By the time it accelerates its got to slow down again

Many hubs are a fair way away from the final destination as well....

The way it typically is run overseas is that there are a mix of express and stopping trains.

If there is only a double track main line, that is one track for each direction, the expresses overtake the stopping trains at stations that usually have an island platform for each direction (i.e. two platform faces each way.) Passengers can seamlessly transfer between an express and a stopper, or vice versa. Just walk across the platform: no need for such a transfer to use stairs, ramps, lifts or escalators.

In Japan, the various types of high speed trains have varying stopping patterns.

Not every small town has a station on a high speed rail line.

It's quite common in mainland China for high speed rail stations to be 10 kilometres from a major intermediate town or city, depending on topography and probably land availability. This isn't a major drawback to its success, but a key selling point is that many high speed trains see boarding and alighting at the most important cities - by which I mean the origin and terminus - in the CBDs, contrasting with legacy and low cost airlines' airports that may be 10,20 or 50 killometres away from where much of the business activity and places of interest to tourists are.

 

[Happy Trails]

34,000?
That should keep up with AFF demand.
What about the rest of the world?

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Boeing forecasts 930 new aircraft for Oceania over next 20 years - Australian Aviation

Boeing has downgraded its forecasts for new orders in Oceania over the next two decades, with the bulk of the reduction coming in the single-aisle segment featuring aircraft such as its own 737 and Airbus’s A320.

The manufacturer’s outlook is for airlines in the region – Australia, New Zealand and the nations of the South Pacific – to order 930 new aircraft worth $US140 billion over the next 20 years.

The estimate is a decrease of 90 aircraft from the 1,020 expected for Oceania in the 2016-2035 CMO.

A recent report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said available seat kilometres (ASK) in the Australian domestic market had fallen an an annualised rate of about three per cent since the start of 2017, with demand also sluggish.

“Australia’s RPKs have ground to a standstill,” the IATA report said.

“The domestic Australia market barely grew in H1 2017.”

 

[Himeno]

The way it typically is run overseas is that there are a mix of express and stopping trains.

If there is only a double track main line, that is one track for each direction, the expresses overtake the stopping trains at stations that usually have an island platform for each direction (i.e. two platform faces each way.) Passengers can seamlessly transfer between an express and a stopper, or vice versa. Just walk across the platform: no need for such a transfer to use stairs, ramps, lifts or escalators.

In Japan, the various types of high speed trains have varying stopping patterns.

Not every small town has a station on a high speed rail line.

For example, the Tōkaidō Shinkansen between Tokyo and Osaka has 17 stations on the line. There are 3 service types. Kodama trains stop at all stations (2 trains per hour), Hikari trains stop at 7-13 stations (some stops vary by service, 1 train every 2 hours) and Nozomi trains stop at 6 stations (1 train every 3-4 hours).
Depending on service and stopping pattern, the full trip between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka stations can take between 2 hours 20 and 4 hours.

 

[junbugging]

For example, the Tōkaidō Shinkansen between Tokyo and Osaka has 17 stations on the line. There are 3 service types. Kodama trains stop at all stations (2 trains per hour), Hikari trains stop at 7-13 stations (some stops vary by service, 1 train every 2 hours) and Nozomi trains stop at 6 stations (1 train every 3-4 hours).
Depending on service and stopping pattern, the full trip between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka stations can take between 2 hours 20 and 4 hours.

Those frequencies for the Hikari and Nozomi are completely out.

 

[Franky]

Those frequencies for the Hikari and Nozomi are completely out.

So what are the frequencies then?

 

[junbugging]

So what are the frequencies then?

http://english.jr-central.co.jp/info/timetable/_pdf/westbound.pdf

 

[Hvr]

Here's a photo I took at Kyoto whilst waiting for my train in June.

Fairly typical headway for the off peak hours.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Tourism boom and rise of the middle class to spur growth in Australia, NZ and South Pacific: Airbus - Australian Aviation

Airbus has upgraded its assessment of the likely number of passenger aircraft serving Australia, New Zealand and the nations of the South Pacific over the next two decades as the lift in tourism and the rise of the middle class enables more people to take to the skies.

The total number of aircraft flying within, into and out of the region is expected to expand from 749 aircraft currently to 1,358 by 2036, an increase of 609 aircraft over the next two decades.

The figure is not the number of aircraft in the fleets of Australian and South Pacific carriers, merely the number of passenger aircraft from all airlines that serve the South Pacific domestic and international markets.

It is a more upbeat assessment compared with Airbus’s most recent outlook for the region that was published in 2015.

The number of single aisle aircraft flowing to and from or within the region was expected to increase from 460 airframes to 818 between now and 2036.

Meanwhile, twin-aisle aircraft (which typically seat between 250-400 passengers) was forecast to grow from 252 now to 452 aircraft over the next two decades.

And the company remained bullish on the very large aircraft segment, with the fleet of aircraft capable of carrying more than 450 passengers expected to more than double from 37 currently to 88 by 2036.

This is despite a dearth of orders for the Airbus’s A380 – the world’s largest passenger aircraft – in recent times.

Also, Australia offers the most seats per capita among the top 12 domestic markets.

 

[juddles]

....Look at the success of high speed trains in Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, mainland China, across the Chunnel...the list goes on.

Where is Australia? We should be on that list too......

Are you kidding? If logic ruled our myriad semi trailers would have been replaced decades ago by a train network. Australia is perfect for trains - a flat pad of immense distances. Never happened....

 

[Franky]

We certainly have a flat pad of immense distances, however we also have a country the size of western Europe where they have 300+ million people to support their great rail networks. 22 million people can't support a similar network here and never will be able to. As for our myriad of semi trailers, Europe still uses them in greater numbers proportionally than we do despite the number of rail networks they have.