Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Not that long ago they said they wouldn't likely have a vaccine. Yet look at what the UK has done. Let's just wait and see before calling it quits for travel. It is worse than reading sensationalist media headlines in this thread.

 

[burmans]

Not that long ago they said they wouldn't likely have a vaccine. Yet look at what the UK has done. Let's just wait and see before calling it quits for travel. It is worse than reading sensationalist media headlines in this thread.

I think this pandemic has always engendered extremes. I’m still of the view we will see some countries open up well before Xmas but only some. But I also think the government need to start having a consistent message. First it was that vaccination was our way out of this, now it’s vaccination won’t be enough and there’s no hurry!

The government also were slow to get into lockdown (the states forced it eventually) and kept banging on about opening the economy, now they are prepared to hang whole sections of the economy out to dry (education, tourism). It’s hard not to think they aren’t just following the flow in regards to this (they’ve seen the popularity of state premiers) but it’s hard to see this as anything but a cynical response rather than leadership!

 

[drron]

I agree @Pushka.The Minister actually said that any significant overseas leisure and business travel might not start until well into 2022.
My take on that is there may well be some travel happening before then.Hopefully it is on more compassionate basis so that family reunions etc will be allowed though probably only if you are vaccinated.
Hopefully also means home quarantine if you are vaccinated.

 

[hb13]

Not that long ago they said they wouldn't likely have a vaccine. Yet look at what the UK has done. Let's just wait and see before calling it quits for travel. It is worse than reading sensationalist media headlines in this thread.

I agree with you in general, but there is no urgency or even appetite to actually get out of this it seems. Also, it is important to remember many of these are not media headlines, but rather cabinet ministers and the PM himself who are saying this.

Judging by absolute landslide victories for the state premiers, people seem to be happy with the current status quo. Remember, the target for vaccines was 4 million by end of March. They're half that now and moving at turtle-pace.

Something has to change. Apart from Gladys, not one premier or member of government has actually said they want to restart international travel.

 

[burmans]

I agree with you in general, but there is no urgency or even appetite to actually get out of this it seems. Also, it is important to remember many of these are not media headlines, but rather cabinet ministers and the PM himself who are saying this.

Judging by absolute landslide victories for the state premiers, people seem to be happy with the current status quo. Remember, the target for vaccines was 4 million by end of March. They're half that now and moving at turtle-pace.

Something has to change. Apart from Gladys, not one premier or member of government has actually said they want to restart international travel.

While no one else is doing it this is not surprising but wait until they are, the public view will change as other countries allow travel. And politicians have shown that ultimately the only principle they have is the principle of getting re-elected so I suspect if/when the public start to push for travel politicians will also change fairly quickly.

 

[hb13]

While no one else is doing it this is not surprising but wait until they are, the public view will change as other countries allow travel. And politicians have shown that ultimately the only principle they have is the principle of getting re-elected so I suspect if/when the public start to push for travel politicians will also change fairly quickly.

Let's hope you're right - but when do you envisage the population will be fully vaccinated? At the current rate, it'll be late next year.

 

[Pushka]

Let's hope you're right - but when do you envisage the population will be fully vaccinated? At the current rate, it'll be late next year.

I expect everyone who wants one will have had at least one by end of 21 and with Pfizer only 3 weeks apart.

 

[mviy]

At some point once we're close to everyone having had a chance to get vaccinated we need them to announce reopening the borders as an incentive for the rest to get vaccinated, and if they choose not to get vaccinated they should be allowed to face the consequences of that if there's an unfortunate outbreak. You can't force people to take care of their health. You can only go so far to protect people from illness if they won't take reasonable steps to help themselves.

 

[Bigskytraveller]

I’ll be very interested to see how the Pfizer as panacea for the government needing to actually drive public health messaging and a sense of jeopardy re not getting vaccinated goes. Emerging data shows Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines are potentially involved in other types of rare clots also. It seems the consensus is not so much AZ or Pfizer causes the clot as the bodies reaction to thinking it has COVID causes an autoimmune reaction that in very rare instances causes these clots - which are far more prevalent in people with actual COVID.

The issue will be that it seems AZ may be better for younger males and Pfizer for women for example at having lower overall side effect issues, I’ve seen no evidence so far that the health authorities in Australia can drive such nuanced messaging or that enough people under 50 will get the vaccines in the complete absence of a sense of jeopardy to drive it.

 

[Pushka]

I’ll be very interested to see how the Pfizer as panacea for the government needing to actually drive public health messaging and a sense of jeopardy re not getting vaccinated goes. Emerging data shows Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines are potentially involved in other types of rare clots also. It seems the consensus is not so much AZ or Pfizer causes the clot as the bodies reaction to thinking it has COVID causes an autoimmune reaction that in very rare instances causes these clots - which are far more prevalent in people with actual COVID.

The issue will be that it seems AZ may be better for younger males and Pfizer for women for example at having lower overall side effect issues, I’ve seen no evidence so far that the health authorities in Australia can drive such nuanced messaging or that enough people under 50 will get the vaccines in the complete absence of a sense of jeopardy to drive it.

Unfortunately it's more like the media won't bother with the detail even if the Govt can try sending that message.

 

[sjk]

I expect everyone who wants one will have had at least one by end of 21 and with Pfizer only 3 weeks apart.

Only problems with that are:

(1) Australia will not open up immediately upon reaching the point of full vaccination; and
(2) Definition of “full vaccination” as of late 2021/early 2022 is unlikely to be “two AZ or Pfizer shots”.

Not a single person of relevance within the Australian federal government expects the borders to be anything like “open” before the middle of next year.

There is also an announcement coming soon from QF re the impossibility of flights from end-October.

 

[Lynda2475]

I expect everyone who wants one will have had at least one by end of 21 and with Pfizer only 3 weeks apart

If only that were true, but numbers simply dont support that. At current trajectory we are looking at 2023.

Id take Pfizer tomorrow if it were available but it isnt for those of us in 2B and no hard commitment as to exactly when we can get it. Not to mention no options for children.

To get good up take, supply needs to be plentiful, it needs to be easy to access and people need to have confidence in the vaccine.

 

[hb13]

There is also an announcement coming soon from QF re the impossibility of flights from end-October.

How soon and are you sure of this?

 

[mviy]

There is also an announcement coming soon from QF re the impossibility of flights from end-October.

Maybe after the budget? Presumably the Treasurer will make some kind of a comment next week about the borders as when we reopen will affect the budget bottom line. The comment could be rather vague, but that makes it clear that international travel isn't expected to resume till next year sometime. That would then put pressure on QF to cancel their flights if they haven't already.

 

[mviy]

Id take Pfizer tomorrow if it were available but it isnt for those of us in 2B and no hard commitment as to exactly when we can get it. Not to mention no options for children.

To get good up take, supply needs to be plentiful, it needs to be easy to access and people need to have confidence in the vaccine.

I'm in 2B and I'd take AZ tomorrow if at the time I think it's likely to mean that I'll be fully vaccinated sooner than waiting for Pfizer, but currently I can't make that choice as the government won't allow me to have either.

I am getting more and more frustrated with not being allowed to do travel that I consider necessary, but the government does not with no date set as to when I can do that travel.

 

[Seat0B]

I agree @Pushka.The Minister actually said that any significant overseas leisure and business travel might not start until well into 2022.
My take on that is there may well be some travel happening before then.Hopefully it is on more compassionate basis so that family reunions etc will be allowed though probably only if you are vaccinated.
Hopefully also means home quarantine if you are vaccinated.

I hope you’re right @drron - but I haven’t heard anything from the Governments -state or federal- at any point in this pandemic that recognises that family reunion travel is not just tourism. Not for obvious compassionate reasons, and certainly not just because people want to see their loved ones.

 

[Flashback]

I can't call Australia......... home

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390229855451684866

 

[hb13]

I can't call Australia......... home

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390229855451684866

Qantas' new theme song?

 

[jakeseven7]

Unfortunately it's more like the media won't bother with the detail even if the Govt can try sending that message.

Exactly, the scare campaign the media have run on AZ and Pfizer clotting events has slowed the vaccination to such a rate that we are starting to get the point of needing to consider when we boost the early Pfizer receivers (surprise! much earlier than anyone thought - lucky for Pfizer $$$) when we are still in SINGLE digit % uptake for the population.

We had a national call on this today with phns, drs, even the AMA was on the call and one person just said ‘this is just an unmitigated clusterf**’. And everyone agreed.

 

[roogirl]

Qantas just emailed me to extend my plat status to mid 2022 so they are clearly not confident of me getting on a plane any time soon before then