Does ExpertFlyer underestimate the number of booked passengers?

[Melburnian1]

Recently I checked a particular international flight on which a friend was travelling.

The night before departure, adding all classes together, it showed about 180 had booked.

At the airport, the lady at check in suggested there were 250 travelling.

This was not an airline that shows blocked seats en masse on EF (QF is one of those), so it's mystifying.

Why the 35 per cent discrepancy?

 

[mannej]

How exactly did you add all the classes together?

Adding the fare buckets together, or did you use the seat maps?

 

[serfty]

@Melburnian1 ,

E/F is a graphical representation of what the airline returns from a GDS query.

As such it is in no way an "estimation".

What it does mean is that many PAX don't preselect seating - in your example at least 70.

 

[Melburnian1]

@Melburnian1 ,

E/F is a graphical representation of what the airline returns from a GDS query.

As such it is in no way an "estimation".

What it does mean is that many PAX don't preselect seating - in your example at least 70.

serfty, thanks. I thought the global distribution systems would know how many passengers are booked, because that information is essential to see whether a bricks and mortar or online travel agent/site can sell a seat to you or me.

 

[mannej]

serfty, thanks. I thought the global distribution systems would know how many passengers are booked, because that information is essential to see whether a bricks and mortar or online travel agent/site can sell a seat to you or me.

I am assuming you are using the seat map to gauge the load here? There are other means to gauge if there are seats available for purchase such as fare bucket availability, which is what the GDS would display.

 

[davidj]

seat to you or me

"Sell a seat" <> available seats on a plane.

Only way to know is look up inventory through the airline system, and this would be a moving feast right up to the manifest going live.

 

[Melburnian1]

I am assuming you are using the seat map to gauge the load here?.. .

mannej, yes: that's what I used.

 

[dajop]

I thought the global distribution systems would know how many passengers are booked,

Isn't it the other way around? ie. GDS show how many seats the airline is willing to sell (not how many have been sold already) in a particular fare class. All the agent needs to know is how many seats they can sell at a particular fare level, not how many have been sold.

 

[Mattg]

Seat maps definitely don't tell you anything about how full a flight is.

The fare class information gives an indication, but it too does not give you the full story.

Case in point: I was recently looking at a flight that showed Y0 but J4. My assumption was that there were still 4 free seats on the plane (all in business class) but actually the flight was oversold by one. There were still 4 free J seats but Y was overbooked by 5 seats... meaning 4 passengers would presumably be upgraded and one passenger would be bumped if everybody showed up.

 

[oz_mark]

Seat maps only tell you how many people have selected a seat.

Fare availability shows how many seats in each class the airline is willing to sell in a transaction...

Neither really tell you how full the flight is.

 

[dajop]

Seat maps only tell you how many people have selected a seat.

Fare availability shows how many seats in each class the airline is willing to sell in a transaction...

Neither really tell you how full the flight is.

Actually with some airlines, once check in opens they are often (but not always) quite accurate, as they block seats (X) for pax on the flight and leave them open for unbooked seats.

 

[kermatu]

Seat maps are very unreliable and in fact quite misleading for certain airlines / cabins. Until boarding starts I don’t trust any vacant seats shown by EF, with the exception of F cabins in the better, premium airlines - like EK and SQ.