Budget 2012, travel losers

[drron]

You are stretching the limits of my accounting knowledge now, but from what I know yes it seems logical that its value should be depreciated over time. It wouldn't be anything like $10 billion/year though I would think - rather it would be capital cost (current estimate $27.5 billion from the government) depreciated in some form over the expected lifespan (50 years IIRC).

Perhaps one of the accountants on this forum can step in and clarify, at least from the perspective of normal accounting guidelines for this type of investment?

Well your thoughts disagree with everything I read in the financial press.And with all due respect what you have quoted from the Parliamentary Library is merely the Government excusing their conduct.As said by former NSW Premier Askin-If you are going to have an inquiry first pick your judge.Same could be said re accountants,economists,doctors even.
Maybe you can explain to me why the Government has to borrow an extra 50 billion to cover a 1.5 billion surplus?
Also why if so much has been cut from spending do the budget papers reveal that total government expenditure is rising 2.6 billion dollars next financial year?

 

[Alanslegal]

Abbott's Budget reply, now not only my (not yet born) son has to read the Bible, he will also have to learn Chinese

 

[seanpodge]

The budget may predict a surplus, but it is predicated on some ambitious growth and tax take forecasts. If Europe descends into anarchy ( an extreme view I know) then swan can kiss goodbye to his surplus. Bear in mind he will hand on heart say " I didn't see it coming" well he would be the only person in Australia who doesn't.
The fact is this is a please vote me in budget. Not really designed to do much about the economy. The best thing about it is the fact it does actually give to low and middle income earners. But it is still a fudged budget with spending before the 30th June and cuts after.

All budgets are predictions. I doubt many in Treasury saw the GFC coming in 2008, even though the housing bubble and crash in the US was hardly an unprecedented event. If Swan and Treasury have got it wrong, then they'll have a severe amount of egg on their faces, but I'd have thought that given how much store that the government has put on a surplus, their estimates would be somewhat conservative to make sure that they get over the line.

There was plenty of pork in the last few budgets of Costello too. Besides, what sort of government doesn't try to get re-elected?

As for the independents , they campaigned on a conservative ( just like Katter) platform. Labour is more hated than the lib/nat option. And as I recall at least one of them is a past member.
So at he very least their electorate would expect them to support the LNP. So I disagree . Besides I believe actual polling found this out.

The fact is this government lacks legitimacy , and credibility.

Both Windsor and Oakeshott were National party members. Perhaps some of the reasons why they left the Nationals are also some of the reasons why their constituents didn't vote for the Nationals too. Katter increasingly looks like he's off in his own little world....

The government is legitimate in accordance with the constitution of Australia. If Abbott wants to challenge the government's legitimacy, he can stop talking tough and actually move a vote of no confidence in the PM. Of course, this is a vote he'd lose.

Then again, if this Thomson case keeps snowballing, then the vote of no confidence has a chance in the future. However, given how comprehensively Abbott has burnt his bridges with Oakeshott and especially Windsor, I'd say that in such a scenario, neither side could command a majority and an election would be held instead of Abbott & co. automatically moving to the treasury benches.

 

[Deleted member]

My point about oakshot and windsor is that they may never have been elected in the first place without national preselection and their constituents are conservative NOT labour. This is a betrayal in anyone's language. Hence my legitimacy point

 

[cove]

Well they did not grab $60 billion out of our superannuation stash to pay for the NBN and a National Water Innitiative.
Still no tax on gross assets you have.
Still no sunlight tax.
Still no tax on the oxygen we breathe.

We can now get back to travelling !

 

[serfty]

Windsor was a sitting member of state parliament for the National's, but lost preselection.

His whole current term is about vengeance, local opinion polls indicate this would be his last representative term in politics - ever!

Posted on a wing and a prayer ...

 

[drron]

First I will apologise to wafliron.He is correct the Government is doing nothing that is illegal in keeping the NBN and Green company project off the balance sheet.
However my basic point is unchanged.A listed company can not do the same thing.If for example Telstra was rolling out the NBN it would have to disclose all its spend on that roll out.Disclosure laws also mean it has to account for it publicly.
So this is a case of the Government saying to private enterprise-Do what I say,not what I do.

Of course the other thing about Wayne Swan's budget spiel is that he says that running a surplus makes it easier for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates.So as Peter Costello said yesterday that would mean that by previously running large deficits the Reserve Bank had to keep interest rates higher than would have been needed if the deficit was smaller?He cant have it both ways.

 

[drron]

Windsor was a sitting member of state parliament for the National's, but lost preselection.

His whole current term is about vengeance, local opinion polls indicate this would be his last representative term in politics - ever!

Posted on a wing and a prayer ...

Also interesting in Windsor's past was that when NSW had a hung parliament he forced the resignation of the Premier Nick Greiner because he had offered a Government job to an ex minister Terry Metheral.Greiner was then cleared of any illegality by NSW's corruption watchdog.That is Windsor moved before the legal processes had run their course.
So why is he now protecting Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper.

 

[Deleted member]

Also interesting in Windsor's past was that when NSW had a hung parliament he forced the resignation of the Premier Nick Greiner because he had offered a Government job to an ex minister Terry Metheral.Greiner was then cleared of any illegality by NSW's corruption watchdog.That is Windsor moved before the legal processes had run their course.
So why is he now protecting Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper.

Someone upset him a long time ago, ? Whatever the reason he is not ( supposed to be ) there because he has a personal agenda, he is (supposed to be ) there because his electorate has an agenda, the issue here is he isn't listening to his electorate. He will be dumped next time around, and has probably set the cause of the (true) independent back decades

 

[whatmeworry]

What has annoyed me with the current labour government and the last time the liberal government was in power, both have/had chances to do something significant with the piles of money taken in tax. But instead they have both used the cash to bribe the electorate with cash handouts. If either had some long term vision, they would see all of the capital cities needed help with major infrastructure e.g. like public transport.

I fear this country is fast becoming like the USA, where politicians are more interested in electorate cycles to keep themselves in power.

Has the mad monk explained how he will pay for his $70 billion dollar black hole yet?

 

[serfty]

...
So why is he now protecting Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper.

Simple - he likes being an MHR, a situation that is unlikely to continue beyond next year ... and he does not want it to end this year ...

 

[rechoboam]

All budgets are predictions. I doubt many in Treasury saw the GFC coming in 2008, even though the housing bubble and crash in the US was hardly an unprecedented event. If Swan and Treasury have got it wrong, then they'll have a severe amount of egg on their faces, but I'd have thought that given how much store that the government has put on a surplus, their estimates would be somewhat conservative to make sure that they get over the line.

There was plenty of pork in the last few budgets of Costello too. Besides, what sort of government doesn't try to get re-elected?



Both Windsor and Oakeshott were National party members. Perhaps some of the reasons why they left the Nationals are also some of the reasons why their constituents didn't vote for the Nationals too. Katter increasingly looks like he's off in his own little world....

The government is legitimate in accordance with the constitution of Australia. If Abbott wants to challenge the government's legitimacy, he can stop talking tough and actually move a vote of no confidence in the PM. Of course, this is a vote he'd lose.

Then again, if this Thomson case keeps snowballing, then the vote of no confidence has a chance in the future. However, given how comprehensively Abbott has burnt his bridges with Oakeshott and especially Windsor, I'd say that in such a scenario, neither side could command a majority and an election would be held instead of Abbott & co. automatically moving to the treasury benches.

When you have more money than you can spend, and you cut taxes and pay money back to taxpayers and still have funds to set aside I can't imagine why that would be a problem.

Different to borrowing money to further entrench welfare dependency.

 

[amaroo]

When you have more money than you can spend, and you cut taxes and pay money back to taxpayers and still have funds to set aside I can't imagine why that would be a problem.

Different to borrowing money to further entrench welfare dependency.

I remember a few companies that played the same game I.E. borrow to pay dividends. They are no longer with us & I suspect the same thing is going to happen to this motley crew!

 

[amaroo]

Simple - he likes being an MHR, a situation that is unlikely to continue beyond next year ... and he does not want it to end this year ...

This bloke is a funny one!

Whilst campaigning to stop mining companies destroying valuable farming land on the Liverpool plains- he does a deal with one of the mining companies to purchase his farm for more than 4.5M, about 3x more than any previous sale conducted in the area.

He has more positions than the kama sutra.

 

[rechoboam]

I remember a few companies that played the same game I.E. borrow to pay dividends. They are no longer with us & I suspect the same thing is going to happen to this motley crew!

Compare to a public company:
Julia Gillard is CEO
Wayne Swan CFO
Has never made a profit under current management
Estimated loss ~20 bil
Actual loss close to double that
Borrowing to pay dividends each year for several years
Several "independent" directors have vowed not to change current management in any way
IT project planned, estimated to cost 15% of gross annual revenue
Responded to major slowdown recently by massively increasing spending to increase confidence of its customers.
New management team ready to take over. However the religious views of the potential CEO a major stumbling block

 

[amaroo]

Compare to a public company:
Julia Gillard is CEO
Wayne Swan CFO
Has never made a profit under current management
Estimated loss ~20 bil
Actual loss close to double that
Borrowing to pay dividends each year for several years
Several "independent" directors have vowed not to change current management in any way
IT project planned, estimated to cost 15% of gross annual revenue
Responded to major slowdown recently by massively increasing spending to increase confidence of its customers.
New management team ready to take over. However the religious views of the potential CEO a major stumbling block

Hahaha, I reckon the three amigos, Julia, Penny, Wayne could teach Phil Green & thing or two for his next venture!

 

[SFSC]

I'm starting to wonder why all the urgency to try and bring down the government now? It smacks of desperation and I, for one, do not react well to desperation. Surely they will be just as gone next year. I know a year can be a long time in politics but does Tony Abbott and crew know about something coming up that we we don't?

Anyway, I'm starting to reconsider my view on politics. Any mob that both Alan Jones and the Murdoch press dislike must have something going for them.

 

[dfcatch]

I'm starting to wonder why all the urgency to try and bring down the government now? It smacks of desperation and I, for one, do not react well to desperation. Surely they will be just as gone next year. I know a year can be a long time in politics but does Tony Abbott and crew know about something coming up that we we don't?

Anyway, I'm starting to reconsider my view on politics. Any mob that both Alan Jones and the Murdoch dislike must have something going for them.

Quite simple - easier to undo the carbon tax now than later (amongst other government programs and/or announcements that the Coalition don't want).

Add to that the fact that any other leader might be more popular than Gillard = desire for an election sooner rather than later.

Not to mention that a large portion of the electorate feel the same way and support the idea of an early election to end the parliamentary impotence.

 

[rechoboam]

Quite simple - easier to undo the carbon tax now than later (amongst other government programs and/or announcements that the Coalition don't want).

Add to that the fact that any other leader might be more popular than Gillard = desire for an election sooner rather than later.

Not to mention that a large portion of the electorate feel the same way and support the idea of an early election to end the parliamentary impotence.

We should have recall elections. If we did they would be gone. Murdoch or Alan Jones or whatever I don't see much going for this mob.

 

[dfcatch]

We should have recall elections. If we did they would be gone. Murdoch or Alan Jones or whatever I don't see much going for this mob.

I'm sure right at the moment (given the unusually high proportion than "really" want this government gone) would agree with the concept....

But - in general, I'm not sure if it's such a good idea. Not in Australia anyway.

We're pretty lucky in the sense that we have a very mainstream (middle of the political spectrum) electorate and governments (Federal at least) that venture too far left or right usually get punished pretty quickly.

In my objective (as objective as I can be ) view, I just see the current situation (incompetence of the government, unhappiness of the electorate) as a reflection of the 2007 election result. Namely - in very brief summary:

- the Coalition lost the election
- Rudd (as a personality) won the election due to being charismatic and appealing to a large portion of voters (for the love of god I still don't understand why IMHO), and by selling himself as Howard-lite. Voters weren't interested in major change, just a "refresh" as IT folk would say (a luxury voters are seemingly prepared to take when the economy is traveling well)
- the ALP as a party/team was in no way ready to govern
- Rudd's gloss started to come off when voters started to suspect that perhaps it was all just marketing rhetoric and there was a lack of substance behind "Kevin07", although this never got tested
- the ALP "post-Rudd" has revealed what the Party really was and stood for and the electorate doesn't like it. Just didn't quite reject it resoundingly enough in 2010, and every step since has just reinforced to the electorate that they made a mistake in 2007.

Interestingly - for some reason - a lot of middle-ground voters absolutely "hate" the government, but haven't "warmed" to Abbott on a personal level even though they embrace his policies. No doubt the internal party pollsters on both sides are spending big $$$ examining this mindset.

Getting back on topic though - I will be surprised if this budget delivers a big boost to Labor as I think people have stopped listening - just as they did with Howard - albeit on a much larger scale now.

Certainly the Tourism industry can't wait to turf this lot out - and the increase in the PMC has not gone down well up here at all.