Volcano disrupts all flights to UK (April 2010)

[QF WP]

Oggy, I was reading The Qantas Source (link in a post yesterday) and they put:

Frequent Flyer Classic Redemption Tickets

Passengers are able to re-book or re-route subject to redemption seat availability only. Additional points/taxes may apply if re-routed.
Normal change fees will not apply.

Refunds

·

Any refund penalties will be waived for tickets issued prior to 15 April 2010

·

This excludes penalties imposed by suppliers or third parties.

·

To request a refund, return your ticket to the original point of purchase prior to 30 May 2010

 

[QF WP]

Hmmm, according to USA Today, FRA did open....but not much of a story.

For those that are happy for the interruption and some down time, I found this article on BBC News (thanks to Tom Baum on Business Traveller)

 

[QF WP]

Generally the ash is concentrated pretty high up in the atmosphere, although there were predictions today for some ash to fall to Earth.

Light planes are different because they handle ash differently. Prop planes (I believe) aren't as affected by ash as jet engines. There are a few flights happening around the place - Apparently it's still legal to fly, just that you won't really get Air Traffic Control support etc.

Seems that some flyers have been looking into this. Martyn Sinclair over on Business Traveller wrote on Friday:

UK airspace is apparently not as closed as we may think. I have been reliably informed that private and commercial flights can be arranged and I'm currently arranging for a trip to Europe asap. Flights have to be VFR and non jet i.e. Piston. I would be interested to hear whether anyone else can verify this. Amazing that even as a pilot I was not aware of this.

then later:

Having spent most of the afternoon on the phone trying to get clarity regarding the lower level airspace, I am now more confused than ever. The situation, as I try to understand it is that jet aircraft cant fly because of an insurance issue (AS WELL AS A SAFETY ISSUE) with the ash. Correct call.

However, piston aircraft the situation is very different. There is no insurance issue with piston engined heli or fixed wing and up until yesterday, VFR flights into Europe with piston and some turbine heli's were taking place (according to flight ops). The situation currently is that the French have now closed that door to VFR flights and i can not seem to get an answer whether Belguim or Dutch airspace is open.

I was also informed that the ash problem is becoming worse as it is now in the lower levels i.e. below 20000'. This basically means that turbines can not effectively climb out at lower levels until clear of the ash.

If anyone dounts the seriousness of the situation, dont, NATS are doing a wonderful job in ensuring ALL oiur safety and I support 100% the decision to close airspace.

However, i wish the reporting had provided far more clarity of exactly who it was affecting and when because had the information about VFR and piston flights been in the public domain (i.e. SKY NEWS) yesterday, may be some people could have found solutions.

Then in response RogerVictor (who works at ATC in LHR) said:

VFR isn't suitable for any plane over 5,700kg and going further than 100m. You also can't fly over large bodies of water VFR and the flight rules require you to remain in sight of the surface and clear of cloud. Separation from other aircraft, not that there would be any, is down to the pilot, once again, looking out the window. You would also need to be instrument rated to fly across the English Chanel. VFR is all about flying looking out of the window. You keep the horizon as a guide to your lateral pitch. Across a large body of water the horizon becomes blurred, you would have to rely on looking at instruments to tell you the plane is level.

There is lots of VFR flying going on from small airfields. The police and S&R helicopters can also operate. Taking a B747 low level out to Madrid with passengers on board just wouldn't be practical.
NATS have said they will not issue a clearance to any aircraft that requires it to enter the 'restricted zone'. That is the only way they can do this. Awful though it may seem.

Sometimes Mother Nature wins

His comment about being at work on 15th (UK time) was also interesting:

At work we usually have 11 people to rotate through 7 positions in the tower. When I arrived today there was only one person working and they were dealing with towing movements.

 

[QF WP]

Not so dumb to suggest that QF should try and get big birds through a nofly zone :!:

Anyone who is unsure about the damage which can be done as a consequence of this eruption should have a look at the pictures in this recent story - from the Finnish airforce.


http://www.flightglobal.com/article...engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html

 

[docjames]

Hmmm, according to USA Today, FRA did open....but not much of a story.

Well, it is the USA Today.......

 

[NM]

Anyone who is unsure about the damage which can be done as a consequence of this eruption should have a look at the pictures in this recent story - from the Finnish airforce.


http://www.flightglobal.com/article...engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html

and of course the famous BA9 situation.

 

[Mal]

Qantas has now cancelled flights up to and including the 21st. (with some ex-Asia flights still scheduled for the 21st).

They have also extended the change waiver to include bookings up to the 30th April.

 

[jb747]

There seems a little confusion here. The QF32 (388) and 30 (744) got out of London just before it closed. QF 2 and 10 are trapped there, so there are two QF 744s at LHR.

 

[QF WP]

My simplified understanding is that when things do start flying normally, it's good that QF have metal on the ground in LHR and SIN, so that means less (or no) positioning flights to get scheduling back to (relative) normality. Am I close, jb747?

 

[jb747]

My simplified understanding is that when things do start flying normally, it's good that QF have metal on the ground in LHR and SIN, so that means less (or no) positioning flights to get scheduling back to (relative) normality. Am I close, jb747?

This will be difficult to fix, no matter how you shuffle the deck. I presume those two aircraft will launch as soon as they get approval. Going the other way will take time. If London opened right now, it would still take a while to get things rolling. The aircraft and crews aren't an issue, but you'd need to contact a huge number of passengers. I can't see there being any empty positioning flights. So if an aircraft starts in Oz with a 100% load for the UK, that doesn't help the people in Sin/Bkk/Lhr at all.

Basically resolving this takes a huge amount of 'spare' capacity to be utilised. I don't know that spare capacity actually exists in any amount. It will also require the UK slots to be removed/relaxed, and probably the removal of the curfew as well.

We were trying to work it out last night (middle of the night at F410, we solve all the world's problems). Perhaps if you pulled all of the 380s off the Pacific, and ran them as shuttles, to feed 330s and 744s (where?).... That would give you an extra 400 seats per day, just using the normal flight slots. Which would take forever to resolve the issue. Even if you get a couple of cycles in per day, you still can't generate that many extra seats.

And, of course, the same problem applies to all of the airlines....

 

[NM]

The aircraft and crews aren't an issue, but you'd need to contact a huge number of passengers.

I think Qantas may find that once the news gets out, the passengers will be doing the calling and not waiting for Qantas reservations dept to call them!

We were trying to work it out last night (middle of the night at F410, we solve all the world's problems). Perhaps if you pulled all of the 380s off the Pacific, and ran them as shuttles, to feed 330s and 744s (where?).... That would give you an extra 400 seats per day, just using the normal flight slots. Which would take forever to resolve the issue. Even if you get a couple of cycles in per day, you still can't generate that many extra seats.

Assume you mean operating the A380s as SIN-LHR-SIN and feeding them from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER/ADL with 744 and A330s. A creative option for sure.

And, of course, the same problem applies to all of the airlines....

and indeed a bigger problem for airlines that have lots of EU destinations. CX and SQ will have a nightmare but don't have to contend with the multi-hop to EU destinations.

I guess there will be lots of people whose travel plans will now be cancelled. Anyone heading to Europe for a week of business meetings may well no longer require to travel.

 

[QF WP]

I guess there will be lots of people whose travel plans will now be cancelled. Anyone heading to Europe for a week of business meetings may well no longer require to travel.

I've been keeping abreast of this, as my brother (and his girlfriend) flew Etihad SYD/AUH/DUB, arriving on 12th to attend a Conference. Most of the other conference delegates were scheduled to fly back to Australia on Saturday, 17th (so I presume they may be stuck there).

Luckily my brother decided to take a couple of weeks holiday, so not flying back to LHR until 28th April and then LHR/AUH/BNE on 4 May, so hopefully things will be settled by then.

Plus he's lucky - girlfriend is a wholesale TA here in Australia, so she'll be able to organise things at that end (know what to do).

 

[jb747]

I think Qantas may find that once the news gets out, the passengers will be doing the calling and not waiting for Qantas reservations dept to call them!

Yes, and I can't really see how that is going to work....

Assume you mean operating the A380s as SIN-LHR-SIN and feeding them from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER/ADL with 744 and A330s. A creative option for sure.

Dunno that that works all that well. I was thinking of somewhere closer, so that you could get multiple flights per day into the UK. Abu Dhabi perhaps. I don't know that the normal rights issues exist as long as you aren't picking up any new passengers. Of course that only works if the UK get rid of slots and curfews....

 

[docjames]

Slots will likely be the limiting factor, unless they waive the LHR curfew for a period of time. Aircrews will be an issue using a/c other than 744/380 into LHR too.

 

[Mal]

I think Qantas may find that once the news gets out, the passengers will be doing the calling and not waiting for Qantas reservations dept to call them!

Well I had to call them instead of them pro-actively contacting me. Was at the 24 hour mark before my flight, so decided to beat others who potentially would have taken seats I wanted for rebooking...

If my flight is cancelled again on Sun, then I'll also pro-actively call... although I have no idea where I will reschedule the flight to.

 

[nlagalle]

We were trying to work it out last night (middle of the night at F410, we solve all the world's problems).

And here we were thinking you guys were watching movies on the glass coughpit!!

 

[samh004]

That VAAC now says the volcano has virtually ceased erupting. Looking good.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271676889.png

Tried to look for a webcam, but I’d imagine there’s a big load on any severs that have a webcam. Found a gallery of webcam captures though, certainly seems like it’s calmed down a bit:

Picasa Web Albums - eyjafjallajokull_...

 

[Mal]

There is now discussion that UK airspace may re-open tomorrow (Tue), with LHR etc re-opening from 18:00 BST. The current official line from NATS is:

The volcanic eruption has reduced and the volcano is not currently emitting ash to altitudes that will affect the UK. Assuming there are no further significant ash emissions we are now looking at a continuously improving situation.

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until 0700 (local time) tomorrow, Tuesday.

From 0700 (local time) tomorrow, Tuesday, Scottish airspace will be open, and south to a line between Teesside and Blackpool. Mainland Scottish airports will be open.

This is a dynamic and changing situation and is therefore difficult to forecast beyond 0700 local; however, the latest Met Office advice is that the contaminated area will continue to move south with the possibility that restrictions to airspace above England and Wales, including the London area, may be lifted later tomorrow (Tuesday).

We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (local time), today.

It is now for airports and airlines to decide how best to utilise this opportunity. Passengers should contact their airlines to find out how this will affect their travel plans.

Looks like good news so far!

 

[sammm]

i am suppsed to be leaving israel tomorrow to zurich, then shanghai then melbourne. but zurich airspace is still closed. i won't know until tomorrow morning if theere will be flights.

i have my doubts there will be flights.

if no fights, i will be stuck for who knows how long.

 

[tuppaware]

A friend sent me this reply from the IATA

Re-Think of Volcano Measures
Governments Must Base Decisions on Fact Not Theory


Paris - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) sharply criticized European governments for their lack of leadership in handling airspace restrictions in light of the Icelandic volcano eruption and urged a re-think of the decision-making process.

“We are far enough into this crisis to express our dissatisfaction on how governments have managed it - with no risk assessment, no consultation, no coordination, and no leadership. This crisis is costing airlines at least $200 million a day in lost revenues and the European economy is suffering billions of dollars in lost business. In the face of such dire economic consequences, it is incredible that Europe’s transport ministers have taken five days to organize a teleconference,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

“Governments must place greater urgency and focus on how and when we can safely re-open Europe’s skies. This means decisions based on risk-management, facts and utilizing operational procedures that maintain safety,” said Bisignani.

IATA criticized Europe’s unique methodology of closing airspace based on theoretical modeling of the ash cloud. “This means that governments have not taken their responsibility to make clear decisions based on facts. Instead, it has been the air navigation service providers who announced that they would not provide service. And these decisions have been taken without adequately consulting the airlines. This is not an acceptable system particularly when the consequences for safety and the economy are so large,” said Bisignani.

“Safety is our top priority. Airlines will not fly if it is not safe. I have consulted our member airlines that normally operate in the affected airspace. They report missed opportunities to fly safely. The European system results in blanket closures of airspace. I challenge governments to agree on ways to flexibly re-open airspace. Risk assessments should be able to help us re-open certain corridors, if not entire airspaces,” said Bisignani.

To assist governments in assessing risk, airlines have conducted successful test flights in several European countries. The results have not shown any irregularities or safety issues. Airlines are also exploring various operational measures to maintain safe operations. These include day flights, restrictions to specific flight corridors, special climb and descent procedures, and more frequent detailed boroscopic engine inspections to detect damage.

The scale of airspace closures currently seen in Europe is unprecedented. “We have seen volcanic activity in many parts of the world but rarely has it resulted in airspace closures - and never at this scale. When Mount St. Helens erupted in the US in 1980, we did not see large scale disruptions, because the decisions to open or close airspace were risk managed with no compromise on safety,” said Bisignani, who urged Eurocontrol to establish a volcano contingency centre capable of making coordinated decisions.

Bisignani called for an urgent meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the specialized agency of the UN, to define government responsibility for the decisions to open or close airspace in a coordinated and effective way based on real data and special operating procedures.

View Giovanni Bisignani's remarks

- IATA -