Will JAL leave OW?

[browski]

I think Jet Airways or Kingfisher Airlines would be a good move for Oneworld.

Kingfisher is tied up with Emirates Skywards so I'm guessing Jet Airways would be more easily persuaded.
However OW historically moves so slowly the horse will have bolted by the time they make a decision - eg. South African Airways and Qatar Airways........

 

[Alanslegal]

to the Mods; maybe we could merge this thread with other like-topic JAL thread http://www.frequentflyer.com.au/community/travel-news/jal-maybe-forced-into-bankruptcy-20881.html

 

[straitman]

I have just logged onto the Aviation Week and Space Technology web site. They are very quick to post aviation related stories and they make no new mention of JAL and Delta or AA. The most recent story dated 4th January (yesterday) is as follows:


JAL May Drop International Routes


Jan 4, 2010


By Bradley Perrett

Japan Airlines may lose its entire international operation under a plan that would reduce the mighty but profitless airline, Asia’s largest, to a mere domestic carrier.

All Nippon Airways would take over all of Japan Airlines’ international services under the plan that the government is considering. Government and Japan Airlines’ sources apparently leaked the details to the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism is opposed to the proposal, but the Mainichi cites some Japan Airlines executives as saying it is not a bad idea.

 

[dajop]

JL has been extremely helpful in Asian routes although would like them to have a MEL-NRT route! Hope they don't leave OW

OW also really needs Etihad to complete the gap and give OW FF an option of getting to Europe through UAE for business & pleasure.

Something in SE Asia would be good for OW, it is another big gap, with TG & SQ star really dominates. With all the QF flights into SIN from Oz, and the range of OW carriers into BKK, it would be good to have more options than routing via HKG or a single BKK-SIN flight.

 

[anat0l]

Something in SE Asia would be good for OW, it is another big gap, with TG & SQ star really dominates. With all the QF flights into SIN from Oz, and the range of OW carriers into BKK, it would be good to have more options than routing via HKG or a single BKK-SIN flight.

Therein lies a huge challenge. SE Asia, but who will you get?

Firstly, Skyteam isn't doing much better here, unless they can finagle MH into the fold. So for all intents and purposes, Star Alliance has a stanglehold on the region.

Not sure if oneworld is prepared to try and talk deal with MH. Not sure if any alliance is prepared to talk to PR, although if oneworld could snag PR then that would certainly be a boon. I guess then there are airlines like VN.

The problem with those examples is that none of those would be good strategic hubs for oneworld, unless some other carriers started connecting intercontinental from those hubs, or at least starting setting up codeshares.

 

[drron]

Therein lies a huge challenge. SE Asia, but who will you get?

Firstly, Skyteam isn't doing much better here, unless they can finagle MH into the fold. So for all intents and purposes, Star Alliance has a stanglehold on the region.

Not sure if oneworld is prepared to try and talk deal with MH. Not sure if any alliance is prepared to talk to PR, although if oneworld could snag PR then that would certainly be a boon. I guess then there are airlines like VN.

The problem with those examples is that none of those would be good strategic hubs for oneworld, unless some other carriers started connecting intercontinental from those hubs, or at least starting setting up codeshares.

VN has already announced they are joining Skyteam in the first half of 2010.

 

[dajop]

Therein lies a huge challenge. SE Asia, but who will you get?.

That's the challenge. PR's hub at MNL is too close to HKG to be of any benefit. Maybe the new improved Garuda (although again talks of GA going to Skyteam, which if they did would leave MH ripe for picking by OW). Said it before, given the linkages to QF some beefing up of 3K in the same way DJ has in Australia and entry into oneworld could create opportunities. The difficulty is the different airlines under the Jetstar brand - whilst 3K and even Jetstar Pacific could work in ow because of geography/routes and competition, would be no value in JQ being there.

 

[drron]

That's the challenge. PR's hub at MNL is too close to HKG to be of any benefit. Maybe the new improved Garuda (although again talks of GA going to Skyteam, which if they did would leave MH ripe for picking by OW). Said it before, given the linkages to QF some beefing up of 3K in the same way DJ has in Australia and entry into oneworld could create opportunities. The difficulty is the different airlines under the Jetstar brand - whilst 3K and even Jetstar Pacific could work in ow because of geography/routes and competition, would be no value in JQ being there.

In fact GA has formally applied and is expected to join Skyteam in 2011.
Air France-KLM's Pierre Gourgeon Speaks About The Alliance Skyteam bundles its forces in Asia - eTurboNews.com

 

[drron]

It seems like the politicians are keen to significantly shrink JAL as per Straitman's earlier post-
Rehab planners: Ax JAL's global routes | The Japan Times Online
This is particularly worrying for OW-
"There is also a proposal for JAL to effectively withdraw from international services outside of Asia and rely on potential partner carriers, particularly Delta Air Lines Inc., in maintaining trans-Pacific and other services through code-sharing arrangements where JAL would sell seats under its own airline code on flights operated by other carriers, the sources said."

AA are obviously worried-
American sees Japan flight cut if JAL favors Delta | The Japan Times Online
and is even offering the services of its turn around division-
American to sweeten deal to keep carrier aboard | The Japan Times Online

The outlook for OW certainly seems to be getting bleaker in Asia.

 

[drron]

The outlook for OW seems to be a bit brighter today.A day or two after QF said they would offer help in setting up a LCC with JAL you get this release from the ETIC who will administer the bankruptcy-
JAL budget carrier eyed | The Japan Times Online
Now QF has experience in setting up a successful LCC.Delta plainly were playing the wrong tune with their attempt.

 

[oz_mark]

I seem to remember reading once that an issue with Japanese travellers has been their resistance to the LCC model, preferring the all inclusive package model, moreso than travellers from other countries. If true, this may be a bit of a sticking point if they can't shift the mindset of their target market.

 

[clifford]

this may be a bit of a sticking point if they can't shift the mindset of their target market.

If you've been to Japan, you'll know it's not possible.

And yes, JAL is moving to Skyteam.

 

[Mwenenzi]

Pending approval...JAL will leave OneWorld (from a FT thread)
JAL, Delta reach basic deal over comprehensive tie-up : Business : DAILY YOMIURI ONLINE (The Daily Yomiuri)
But denied by JL, AA and DL
Top Financial News

 

[serfty]

Oh Dear!

Look's like I'll need to consider changing mine and SWHMBO LONE4's from LHR-(QF)-SIN-(JL)-NRT planned for February next year to LHR-(QF)-HKG-(CX)-NRT ... :-|

 

[Alanslegal]

hmmmm.....given JL's likelihood of defecting from OW, what should I do?

I have (SYD)-SIN-NRT-DPS-(HKG) currently for Aug 10

Rerouting would mean significant costs as I haven't flown the first segment (which will occur in July 10).

So.....suggestions please?

 

[Mal]

So.....suggestions please?

Leave it alone for the moment and wait until the dust settles...

 

[straitman]

hmmmm.....given JL's likelihood of defecting from OW, what should I do?

I have (SYD)-SIN-NRT-DPS-(HKG) currently for Aug 10

Rerouting would mean significant costs as I haven't flown the first segment (which will occur in July 10).

So.....suggestions please?

There will be a lot of people affected by the change, if it occurs, so OW will need to address the issue in some form or another.

 

[drron]

Well the pundits are becoming more definite on the defection.However April 2011 is the proposed date of change so August looks fine-
JAL set to join SkyTeam alliance | The Japan Times Online
The facts may become clearer tomorrow when JAL is expected to file for bankruptcy.The ETIC says they will announce details of the rescue plan then.
Of course if JAL defects it does mean that just because an airline is already in an alliance it cant switch with CO and probably JAL going down this path.It will be interesting times.

 

[drron]

The official OW response to JAL's banktuptcy-
oneworld - News

 

[drron]

I have been doing some thinking and recognising the great advances in science believe that pigs might fly-hopefully soon.
Ideal personal scenario for airline alliances-AA merge with UA then take the rest of OW into *A.
B*gger JAL and Sky.