Falling!!! Help!!!

[dede]

Woo hoo! I'm off to the UK in November!

 

[kpc]

Go you good thing.

I want to see US90c, EU60c, GBP 55p.


C'mon!!


(I know, i'm dreaming!)

as per xe.com, it is now:
US0.878 EU60C GBP55.1p
live the dream!

 

[lovestotravel]

The Aussie $ was actually up to 0.88045 yesterday!

 

[kpc]

The Aussie $ was actually up to 0.88045 yesterday!

I know! I bought some plane tickets in US$ yesterday:mrgreen:

 

[lovestotravel]

I know! I bought some plane tickets in US$ yesterday:mrgreen:

Likewise actually :mrgreen: Nothing big $$ though just some domestic flights on United. Paid upfront for baggage, economy plus and lounge access though so that's a good thing !

 

[drron]

A few weeks ago I booked an Artic cruise for next year.i could elect to pay in $US or $A-went for US-it was just under 84c then.Just paid the first deposit so ahead at present.

 

[oz_mark]

Just having a look and saw the dollar at 0.88888 US. Nice number.

 

[RB]

Maybe this from SMH will cause some rethinks

The Aussie dollar is poised to storm past parity with the US dollar, propelled by local interest rate rises and Australia's close ties to the booming Chinese economy, according to currency analysts.
"We envisage north of parity potential as soon as the first quarter next year, and ultimately wouldn't rule out $1.20 US cents later in 2010," he said.

 

[notzac]

Maybe this from SMH will cause some rethinks

The Aussie dollar is poised to storm past parity with the US dollar, propelled by local interest rate rises and Australia's close ties to the booming Chinese economy, according to currency analysts.
"We envisage north of parity potential as soon as the first quarter next year, and ultimately wouldn't rule out $1.20 US cents later in 2010," he said.

Erm, isn't that what all the clever analysts were saying before the AUD fell apart last time?! :shock:

 

[fortymilliondaggers]

Maybe this from SMH will cause some rethinks

The Aussie dollar is poised to storm past parity with the US dollar, propelled by local interest rate rises and Australia's close ties to the booming Chinese economy, according to currency analysts.
"We envisage north of parity potential as soon as the first quarter next year, and ultimately wouldn't rule out $1.20 US cents later in 2010," he said.

This SMH story (Parity Beckons for Australian Dollar | Currency News | AUD | A$ | $A) calls upon a few particular economists for comments on where they think the dollar's heading. I did a little bit of investigation, not only because like everybody else I want to know where the dollar's heading, but also because I wanted to hold the individuals who make these bold predictions to account.

The author of this SMH piece Chris Zappone has called upon these particular individuals for comments in the past. So has AAP. I found little to no pattern in how particular individuals/firms have read the market. Their medium to long term predictions in particular concern me: they appear to change with the weather.

I don't care that certain traders or economists have misinterpreted the signals particularly in this economic climate, but am concerned that these people continually provide the expert opinions. A quick glance at their websites gives me a feeling that they each have significant amoutns of their business from those with high risk appetite seeking short term gains. The firms have an interest in moving the dollar a particular way, but are too small to influence the market in any meaningful way.

Through the media, of course, they gain more influence. This thread is evidence enough that ordinary Australians make decisions influenced in some way by what the media offers as plausible predictions. Of course, you can always find somebody (even highly trained and experienced economists) to say anything, but without more analysis or criticism of these sources I won't be paying any more attention to anything anybody has to say.

I don't think we'll hit parity. I think there's a real psychological barrier to that happening, but I hope I'm wrong.

 

[RB]

This SMH story (Parity Beckons for Australian Dollar | Currency News | AUD | A$ | $A) calls upon a few particular economists for comments on where they think the dollar's heading. I did a little bit of investigation, not only because like everybody else I want to know where the dollar's heading, but also because I wanted to hold the individuals who make these bold predictions to account.

The author of this SMH piece Chris Zappone has called upon these particular individuals for comments in the past. So has AAP. I found little to no pattern in how particular individuals/firms have read the market. Their medium to long term predictions in particular concern me: they appear to change with the weather.

I don't care that certain traders or economists have misinterpreted the signals particularly in this economic climate, but am concerned that these people continually provide the expert opinions. A quick glance at their websites gives me a feeling that they each have significant amoutns of their business from those with high risk appetite seeking short term gains. The firms have an interest in moving the dollar a particular way, but are too small to influence the market in any meaningful way.

Through the media, of course, they gain more influence. This thread is evidence enough that ordinary Australians make decisions influenced in some way by what the media offers as plausible predictions. Of course, you can always find somebody (even highly trained and experienced economists) to say anything, but without more analysis or criticism of these sources I won't be paying any more attention to anything anybody has to say.

I don't think we'll hit parity. I think there's a real psychological barrier to that happening, but I hope I'm wrong.

I think that the fact this thread is in playground probably reflects the fact that members of this forum ( and experts elsewhere) have no real idea

 

[JohnK]

About 13 days

Yeh of little faith. Still going up and could keep going that way until my Christmas trip. :shock:

 

[codash1099]

Just went above $US0.90. I claim full credit - I have just locked in hotels for my next DONE4 at $0.87. Bugger!

 

[david870mdg]

Well, I can say I've ridden this wave a bit.
When i booked my US trip last June, $$ was up, fell enormously when I was actually in the States.
Two trips back this year, including now, and just watching the numbers ride up and up and up...............

 

[simongr]

This thread is evidence enough that ordinary Australians make decisions influenced in some way by what the media offers as plausible predictions. Of course, you can always find somebody (even highly trained and experienced economists) to say anything, but without more analysis or criticism of these sources I won't be paying any more attention to anything anybody has to say.

I dont think most of the people here would consider themselves "ordinary". Most of the predictions here and forecasting are based on when other people are planning to travel and the commensurate negative expected movement in the currency that will make their holiday more expensive.

Whilst australia is jacking up interest rates compared to the rest of the world we can safely expect a strong A$, weak exports and a tourism industry in decline - but still house prices are going up!

 

[Cyclogenesis]

and will continue to do so until the false economy propping them up is removed...

But to have weak growth in house prices or even, jeebus forbid, a fall, would be a political depth charge, particularly at a time of rising interest rates

 

[oz_mark]

Whilst australia is jacking up interest rates compared to the rest of the world we can safely expect a strong A$, weak exports and a tourism industry in decline - but still house prices are going up!

While interest rates are a factor in the value of the AUD versus US, there is also a large correlation with commodity prices. Given the heights that some commodities are reaching (e.g. gold) this will also help support the AUD.

 

[RB]

Article in SMH today gives a bit of background

US dollar rout gains momentum

 

[Mal]

Given the heights that some commodities are reaching (e.g. gold)

Have heard $US1500 being bandied around - that would be crazily high.

 

[drron]

Have heard $US1500 being bandied around - that would be crazily high.

Youve only been listening to gold pessimists:shock: