You can leave Australia from November, but can you get back?

[Mattg]

There has understandably been lots of excitement about Australia's international borders opening (at least for some states) from sometime in November.

I've had a bit of a look at international flight availability over the next few months from November onwards. There are a reasonable amount of seats available on outbound flights departing from Australia. But with so many Australians still stuck overseas now, there is still huge demand for inbound flights and most airlines don't seem to have added much capacity yet (or if they have, it's already sold out).

Do we just need to wait for airlines to add more seats for sale and everything will sort itself out - or is getting back to Australia in November/December/January going to be hugely difficult and expensive?

 

[SYD]

There has understandably been lots of excitement about Australia's international borders opening (at least for some states) from sometime in November.

I've had a bit of a look at international flight availability over the next few months from November onwards. There are a reasonable amount of seats available on outbound flights departing from Australia. But with so many Australians still stuck overseas now, there is still huge demand for inbound flights and most airlines don't seem to have added much capacity yet (or if they have, it's already sold out).

Do we just need to wait for airlines to add more seats for sale and everything will sort itself out - or is getting back to Australia in November/December/January going to be hugely difficult and expensive?

Yes.

I’m probably going to hold off until Q2 2022

 

[justinbrett]

For travel to/from the US, Fiji Airways have opened their flights and you can get very cheap deals if you don't mind stopping at NAN.

SYD-LAX return about $1500 mid December; one way in either direction about $1000.

One way J fare about $5000, return about $7000.

Just the start - the announcement was only made on Friday, more and more airlines will open seats. I think you'll get some pretty cheap deals as they all will want to fill their seats.

 

[SYD]

Just the start - the announcement was only made on Friday, more and more airlines will open seats. I think you'll get some pretty cheap deals as they all will want to fill their seats.

The risk will be a prolonged hotel quarantine requirements for non-Oz residents and airlines can’t get decent loads inbound. Even the 7D home Q will put many off travelling in the first few months.

Fiji at least might be in a bubble arrangement in the coming months but what that looks like might be different to what was in play with NZ during Covid zero days?

 

[drron]

I have been able to get awards outward in March yesterday plus inward awards in May. But I can't get awards in August or September. Hopefully just awaiting leads earlier in the year before loading.

 

[justinbrett]

The risk will be a prolonged hotel quarantine requirements for non-Oz residents and airlines can’t get decent loads inbound. Even the 7D home Q will put many off travelling in the first few months.

Fiji at least might be in a bubble arrangement in the coming months but what that looks like might be different to what was in play with NZ during Covid zero days?

Even if it is only Australian residents flying, most people will be on return trips who will be filling those inbound seats as much as they filled the outbound loads. On top of this, there will be heavy demand for inbound seats once the program kicks off. They will probably be sold out in both directions through to end of January.

Certainly won't be Jan 2020 levels, but will not be insignificant.

 

[OATEK]

Even leaving Australia has limited options at present. Looking at EF for early March SYD-LHR, there are only two options coming up, QF1 or CX100 (the latter used as BA/QR codeshare also). Still waiting to see when airlines load inventory for sale.

 

[justinbrett]

Even leaving Australia has limited options at present. Looking at EF for early March SYD-LHR, there are only two options coming up, QF1 or CX100 (the latter used as BA/QR codeshare also). Still waiting to see when airlines load inventory for sale.

Google flights will show you a lot more options.

Just to name a few:
NH (via HND)
BA (via SIN) - both BA metal
JL (via HND)
CX (via HKG)
SA (via SIN)
EY (via AUG)
EK (via DXB)
QR (via DOH)

Plus other options via the US

 

[OATEK]

Google flights will show you a lot more options

So does Skyscanner, but not sure I would trust either at this stage.

 

[justinbrett]

So does Skyscanner, but not sure I would trust either at this stage.

Google flights book directly with the airlines. I did the same search on BA and it came up with loads of options (mix of QF, BA, CX, QR and JL)

 

[OATEK]

Google flights book directly with the airlines. I did the same search on BA and it came up with loads of options (mix of QF, BA, CX, QR and JL)

Agree, but all involved either QF1 or CX 100.

 

[MARTINE]

There has understandably been lots of excitement about Australia's international borders opening (at least for some states) from sometime in November.

I've had a bit of a look at international flight availability over the next few months from November onwards. There are a reasonable amount of seats available on outbound flights departing from Australia. But with so many Australians still stuck overseas now, there is still huge demand for inbound flights and most airlines don't seem to have added much capacity yet (or if they have, it's already sold out).

Do we just need to wait for airlines to add more seats for sale and everything will sort itself out - or is getting back to Australia in November/December/January going to be hugely difficult and expensive?

Good discussion
We are planning for ~May 22 by which time we will see how the process has been working, other people’s experiences and ‘certainty’ coming from Vic. Our circs allow for very last minute travel.
What do other AFFers think about pricing ???- I predict once the early ‘cheap’ seats to guarantee full planes it will be more $$$ … this wont stop me but airlines have a lot of losses to make up (Notwithstanding the high volumes from those that will be repatriated).
I also want to have in-depth discussions with my travel insurer about coverage as the DO NOT TRAVEL orders from Australia lift.

 

[Mattg]

What do other AFFers think about pricing ???- I predict once the early ‘cheap’ seats to guarantee full planes it will be more $$$

I'm actually predicting the exact opposite. I think the early pricing will be high as airlines take advantage of pent-up demand, especially inbound into Australia. Once the initial wave of people who want to travel ASAP regardless of any quarantine requirements subsides, I think the prices will drop.

This is similar to what we saw with the trans-Tasman bubble, although the market forces and government restrictions there were a little different.

 

[justinbrett]

Agree, but all involved either QF1 or CX 100.

Not for me. Maybe search adjacent days.

 

[drron]

I had no problems getting in or out on SQ February and May.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm actually predicting the exact opposite. I think the early pricing will be high as airlines take advantage of pent-up demand, especially inbound into Australia. Once the initial wave of people who want to travel ASAP regardless of any quarantine requirements subsides, I think the prices will drop.

This is similar to what we saw with the trans-Tasman bubble, although the market forces and government restrictions there were a little different.

Dunno... will be interesting to see how this pans out. The capacity is there on existing flights - many thousands of seats. Competition will come in at some point. Christmas was never cheap anyway.

As for early 2022 - BA's AU homepage is advertising return fares SYD-LHR for Mar 22 at $1553. That's pre-pandemic levels (and possibly covered by the UK version of EC261? unless they have changed the rules to exclude flights to the UK/EU)

 

[Pushka]

So does Skyscanner, but not sure I would trust either at this stage.

But it is a great resource to then go to the airlines website directly. It throws up suggestions I'd never think about. Eg for me, booking through Swiss airlines gets me SQ direct into Adelaide with a mix of Swiss from Singapore.

Post automatically merged: Oct 3, 2021

Good discussion
We are planning for ~May 22 by which time we will see how the process has been working, other people’s experiences and ‘certainty’ coming from Vic. Our circs allow for very last minute travel.
What do other AFFers think about pricing ???- I predict once the early ‘cheap’ seats to guarantee full planes it will be more $$$ … this wont stop me but airlines have a lot of losses to make up (Notwithstanding the high volumes from those that will be repatriated).
I also want to have in-depth discussions with my travel insurer about coverage as the DO NOT TRAVEL orders from Australia lift.

I'll see you in London!

 

[MARTINE]

But it is a great resource to then go to the airlines website directly. It throws up suggestions I'd never think about. Eg for me, booking through Swiss airlines gets me SQ direct into Adelaide with a mix of Swiss from Singapore.

Post automatically merged: Oct 3, 2021

I'll see you in London!

 

[justinbrett]

I'm actually predicting the exact opposite. I think the early pricing will be high as airlines take advantage of pent-up demand, especially inbound into Australia. Once the initial wave of people who want to travel ASAP regardless of any quarantine requirements subsides, I think the prices will drop.

This is similar to what we saw with the trans-Tasman bubble, although the market forces and government restrictions there were a little different.

Pre covid, flights were always expensive in Dec/Jan. Prices being offered at the moment seem on par with pre-covid for this time of year.

Also Australians returning one way need to keep in mind one way long haul flights have always been way more expensive than half a return fare, in most cases.

 

[Pushka]

Pre covid, flights were always expensive in Dec/Jan. Prices being offered at the moment seem on par with pre-covid for this time of year.

Also Australians returning one way need to keep in mind one way long haul flights have always been way more expensive than half a return fare, in most cases.

Agree. Ages ago I booked an award flight in May ADL into London. Cannot find anything award to get back. One way is about the same price as a return. Might have to cancel the award flight and, pay!