What will it cost to fly when the borders open again (domestic or international)

[Pom-DownUnder]

I think next year will be not too bad as I expect tourists will be very thin on the ground in Aus for fear of what they have seen being enacted here, with that keeping demand low prices will settle. 2023 I think is a year to save your points for though.

 

[Seat0B]

I posted in another thread - email received from QF today flogging holidays to Singapore and Fiji from 10 January 2022. 'Dust off your passport' or something similar. Anyway - the price of the hotels and hotels+airfare is listed separately. From Sydney to Fiji they are asking $1300 extra for the economy airfare, off peak. That's pretty expensive for a couple hours flying. Let's hope competition on the Singapore route will bring more realistic fares.

Wow, so it's not just Japan that jumped then. It's a pity for me because Singapore in March 2022 is looking at least 50% likely now, so I too hope that competition on that route will keep prices a little more realistic.

I really think I will have to look at award seats if I can get them.

 

[oznflfan]

Darwin Paris return with Singapore Airlines (on their website) May 2022 is $1,280 return with taxes and baggage. Very cheap to me.

 

[vetrade]

I see a number of factors at play but no clear way of quantifying them so it seems we'll have to wait to find out. Ultimately the only certainty is that prices will reflect the demand - and that applies to the whole travel industry, not just plane travel.

Firstly, business travel may well never return to pre Covid levels simply because companies have been forced to find alternatives to flying all over the world to do business. Many of them would have even surprised themselves at how successfully they managed to do that. Complimenting that "success out of necessity" is the fact that those companies are, or soon will be, benefitting from a whole raft of innovative digital solutions being developed by entrepreneurial businesses with access to big investment $$$ (from US funds especially). That wouldn't happen unless the "smart money" expected post Covid to be markedly different to pre Covid. Unquestionably, business travel is in the throws of major change simply because many companies now realise how much business travel they can do without - and how much their travel budget can be slashed without compromising performance.

In opposition to likely reduced business demand, once international flights / routes ramp up, tourist travel will undoubtedly surge because of all the pent up demand from people wanting to visit family or friends OS or just for leisure. My expectation is that that surge will be a sustained one simply because there's a huge number of cashed-up older travellers who feel like they have been robbed of 2 years of their life already, and who will have developed an attitude of "do it now while you can" because, as that song says "you don't know what you've got till it's gone". Many of those people will want to travel significantly more frequently and for longer than previously and once they're fully vaccinated they won't hesitate for one minute. My wife and I are definitely in that group.

Personally, I think airlines will read the market well. They may target business travellers with deals to encourage them, but I don't see that applying to the tourist sector. All airlines will know that low margins are no way to claw themselves back into financial health so as long as tourism demand is maintained they won't want to start anything more than a token price war in that sector with their competitors. Cheap deals could well be a permanent thing of the past and airlines will be mindful that they should build in a bit of a buffer to their pricing to protect themselves against another possible pandemic.

I also think the supply side will be impacted by rationalising of routes. Airlines may well decide to drop some underperforming routes (especially if they are already impacted by the high Covid numbers and low vaccination rates in some countries, and look to add others that stack up better (as QF has already indicated they will do).

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Firstly, business travel may well never return to pre Covid levels simply because companies have been forced to find alternatives to flying all over the world to do business. Many of them would have even surprised themselves at how successfully they managed to do that. Complimenting that "success out of necessity" is the fact that those companies are, or soon will be, benefitting from a whole raft of innovative digital solutions being developed by entrepreneurial businesses with access to big investment $$$ (from US funds especially). That wouldn't happen unless the "smart money" expected post Covid to be markedly different to pre Covid. Unquestionably, business travel is in the throws of major change simply because many companies now realise how much business travel they can do without - and how much their travel budget can be slashed without compromising performance.

I think business travel will get back to where it was, its an expectation for alot of these roles and just a couple of years off will impact some but not that many. I think there is an understanding that any money saved on travel would need to be worked into the salary of people who were no longer receiving a perk.

There is also the factor of how this year has trapped people in / out. the loss of face to face interaction with clients / customers / conferences which half of the time are a wink and a nudge to a nice holiday location. there will be alot people hungering for these.

 

[vetrade]

I think business travel will get back to where it was, its an expectation for alot of these roles and just a couple of years off will impact some but not that many. I think there is an understanding that any money saved on travel would need to be worked into the salary of people who were no longer receiving a perk.

There is also the factor of how this year has trapped people in / out. the loss of face to face interaction with clients / customers / conferences which half of the time are a wink and a nudge to a nice holiday location. there will be alot people hungering for these.

I think a lot of business travellers would be bemused at the way you characterise their work as little more than a cover for leisure activities. Maybe that characterisation applies to public servants but I doubt it applies to many others. The regular business travellers I know take their work seriously and tend not to treat it as a holiday.

Certainly, some business travellers might object and be slow to adapt to new business norms but they might soon find themselves going the same way as the dinosaurs.

I'd bet any private sector employee who dared take your sentiment that "there is an understanding that any money saved on travel would need to be worked into the salary of people who were no longer receiving a perk" to their boss could soon find themselves looking for another job.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I think a lot of business travellers would be bemused at the way you characterise their work as little more than a cover for leisure activities. Maybe that characterisation applies to public servants but I doubt it applies to many others.

....

I'd bet any private sector employee who dared take your sentiment that "there is an understanding that any money saved on travel would need to be worked into the salary of people who were no longer receiving a perk" to their boss could soon find themselves looking for another job.

Varying opinions / experiences obviously but I think you will find the vast majority of conferences have a 'evening meal' or 'socialising' portion, usually on the first night that the conference runs. Been to quite a few.

In regard to private sector, I work in the private sector and that is exactly the conversation I would have. If the amount it cost to have me employed suddenly decreased $10,000 per year on the basis of a change that is out of my hands, sure the business would pocket some, but it would be part of the remuneration discussion.

The amount a business is willing to part with each year to keep you employed is what the business deems your value to be, irrespective of if that money is going to the ATO, to HECS, to a bank, to qantas.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think a lot of business travellers would be bemused at the way you characterise their work as little more than a cover for leisure activities. Maybe that characterisation applies to public servants but I doubt it applies to many others. The regular business travellers I know take their work seriously and tend not to treat it as a holiday.

Certainly, some business travellers might object and be slow to adapt to new business norms but they might soon find themselves going the same way as the dinosaurs.

I'd bet any private sector employee who dared take your sentiment that "there is an understanding that any money saved on travel would need to be worked into the salary of people who were no longer receiving a perk" to their boss could soon find themselves looking for another job.

One correction to make to a previous post - the QF packages to Fiji were actually based on two pax travelling, so the airfares had to be divided by two. $650 to Fiji is not the cheapest, but not wholly unreasonable either.

As for business travel, I guess it depends on how we're classifying that? I know a couple of doctors who travel to a couple of conferences each per year. There's a lot of socialising in places like Las Vegas, Honolulu, Maldives, etc. I know board members attending their international board meetings twice a year in places like London, Washington and Johannesburg. Lots of folk going to trade fairs... the day might be looking at new products and being wooed by suppliers, but the evening is spent socialising. I doubt public servants do any of those things, but even if they did, it's not fair to say they're the only ones!

 

[Seat0B]

In opposition to likely reduced business demand, once international flights / routes ramp up, tourist travel will undoubtedly surge because of all the pent up demand from people wanting to visit family or friends OS or just for leisure. My expectation is that that surge will be a sustained one simply because there's a huge number of cashed-up older travellers who feel like they have been robbed of 2 years of their life already, and who will have developed an attitude of "do it now while you can" because, as that song says "you don't know what you've got till it's gone". Many of those people will want to travel significantly more frequently and for longer than previously and once they're fully vaccinated they won't hesitate for one minute. My wife and I are definitely in that group.

yep, Mr Seat 0A and I are in this category too for sure, but as i got COVID retired a bit earlier than planned, the bottomless pit of money is not so bottomless any more and cost will be something of an issue - well more than it was before when flights were cheap and plentiful, and money came more easily than it does now.

 

[Seat0B]

As for business travel, I guess it depends on how we're classifying that? I know a couple of doctors who travel to a couple of conferences each per year. There's a lot of socialising in places like Las Vegas, Honolulu, Maldives, etc. I know board members attending their international board meetings twice a year in places like London, Washington and Johannesburg. Lots of folk going to trade fairs... the day might be looking at new products and being wooed by suppliers, but the evening is spent socialising. I doubt public servants do any of those things, but even if they did, it's not fair to say they're the only ones!

I think business travel is going to change quite a bit, depending what it's for.

I'm sure the conference market will be trying hard to resume face to face conferencing. Honestly, electronic conferences are not very interesting, and it makes a poor speaker into a totally boring nightmare. In truth a lot of the value of the conference is in the connections made with others - people who might work with you, potential clients and even intelligence about your competitors. I have done a few on-line conferences, but have not managed to get that personal connection stuff happening.

Also, I am sure that self funded travel such as that by doctors, lawyers and other professionals to conferences etc was always at least partially driven by tax deductions. I suspect those people might continue to travel. I have noted that a lot of orthopaedic surgeons have conferences in the northern hemisphere ski fields in January!

Other business travel might be visiting regular clients. This can probably be managed on zoom, but it really only works if there is an underlying relationship that was probably developed over some years face to face. In some cultures, this is even stronger. I think it will be pretty hard to open up new business relationships exclusively over zoom.

I do think that internal travel such as for internal meetings etc might well be seriously reduced as everyone has just learned to suck it up and do it on zoom. Still, it makes it hard to meet new colleagues and form relationships, and have private off the record chats with people etc.

Finally there is training - there was a whole thread about how cough training is via on-line methods and how people are craving for face to face training. This is my business, and it is certainly true that people do not want to do 5 days training on government procurement via zoom!

 

[vetrade]

The amount a business is willing to part with each year to keep you employed is what the business deems your value to be, irrespective of if that money is going to the ATO, to HECS, to a bank, to qantas.

Again, I disagree with your characterisation. You are suggesting that employee remuneration is linked to other business expense categories such as tax, bank fees and travel expenses, which I find to be an unconvincing perspective (I have no idea why HECS was mentioned).

Surely the correct view is that businesses deem an employee's value to be hitched to the value and profitability of their sales figures, billable hours etc., rather than to the business's day to day expenses, especially those expenses which are only remotely and indirectly unrelated to the employee's activities.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Again, I disagree with your characterisation. You are suggesting that employee remuneration is linked to other business expense categories such as tax, bank fees and travel expenses, which I find to be an unconvincing perspective (I have no idea why HECS was mentioned).

Surely the correct view is that businesses deem an employee's value to be hitched to the value and profitability of their sales figures, billable hours etc., rather than to the business's day to day expenses, especially those expenses which are only remotely and indirectly unrelated to the employee's activities.

What the employee brings in:
- added value to the entity (be that sales / billable / administration)

What the employee costs you:
- Wages (included here are HECS / Tax / Sal Sac Components / Net payment to employee)
- Super
- Workers Comp
- Remuneration for expenditure employee regularly makes
- Costs associated specific to that role, ie. travel, entertainment (if they butter up clients for eg)

To clarify tax / bank / hecs, what i am intimating there is that you will have various employees at various levels, some will pay more tax, some will have hecs remitted, these dont impact the 'cost' of the salary to the entity they are just part and parcel.

 

[vetrade]

I think business travel is going to change quite a bit, depending what it's for.

I'm sure the conference market will be trying hard to resume face to face conferencing. Honestly, electronic conferences are not very interesting, ............

Conferences are certainly an area which routinely have a significant leisure component and will likely bounce back fully, especially those predominantly catering to self employed professionals like medicos for whom the program often runs a distant second to the location and extra-curricular activities.

Would be interesting to know what proportion conferences are of the business travel market overall but I guess the bottom line is still that the overall demand for flights, and what that means for the price of fares, will take a while for us to know.

 

[Ade]

Finally there is training - there was a whole thread about how cough training is via on-line methods and how people are craving for face to face training. This is my business, and it is certainly true that people do not want to do 5 days training on government procurement via zoom!

Ah, well said @Seat0B. I would pay top $ to attend a face to face training. The whole online training thingy isn't working. I work in IT and the new age training courses are of better value when you get a chance to collaborate in person with the fellow participants. Doing this online is very draining on the enthusiasm, productivity and the whole idea of collaboration, working together isn't happening.

The other issue is, trying to get everyone up to speed on how to use the IT systems to collaborate. There is issues with some using Windows, some using Mac, some use phones to dial into training sessions because their laptop is not picking up audio via their headphones, some don't have and don't want to use headphones and you can hear their family business during the training sessions!

I really wish, at least, trainings will be done F2F, real soon. I have got $5K training budget (self funded, as always) that I need to use and I'm waiting to use it on a F2F training in CBR. Fingers crossed!

 

[Matt_01]

....

As for business travel, I guess it depends on how we're classifying that? I know a couple of doctors who travel to a couple of conferences each per year. There's a lot of socialising in places like Las Vegas, Honolulu, Maldives, etc. I know board members attending their international board meetings twice a year in places like London, Washington and Johannesburg. Lots of folk going to trade fairs... the day might be looking at new products and being wooed by suppliers, but the evening is spent socialising. I doubt public servants do any of those things, but even if they did, it's not fair to say they're the only ones!

To me this thread seems to have becoming muddled. I also know many 'C' levels and board members that travel to places such as NYC or the UK and travel 20+ hours to attend a 60-90 minute meeting then maybe a few 1-1 as we were in country. You doubt public servants servants do this, think our PM went to the UK for a conference he did not have to attend and then the pub, the QLD Premier needed to go to Japan to secure the olympics no one else wanted and even the WA premier locked out all travel but exempted senior public servants (IIRC).

 

[OATEK]

What will be of interest is the mix of overseas travel in the first six months or so between business, family reunion and leisure - not that it will be easy to find out.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

To me this thread seems to have becoming muddled. I also know many 'C' levels and board members that travel to places such as NYC or the UK and travel 20+ hours to attend a 60-90 minute meeting then maybe a few 1-1 as we were in country. You doubt public servants servants do this, think our PM went to the UK for a conference he did not have to attend and then the pub, the QLD Premier needed to go to Japan to secure the olympics no one else wanted and even the WA premier locked out all travel but exempted senior public servants (IIRC).

Good examples, and I agree with those, but the PM, Premiers and other members of parliament are not public servants.

 

[OATEK]

Good examples, and I agree with those, but the PM, Premiers and other members of parliament are not public servants.

Most of [my] business travel (by air) since 1985 has involved public servants in the mix, even if Minister's also involved, Not sure of the point you are trying to make? In fact not being a frequent business traveller I often relied on the public servants to guest me for lounge access.

 

[Tiki]

In opposition to likely reduced business demand, once international flights / routes ramp up, tourist travel will undoubtedly surge because of all the pent up demand from people wanting to visit family or friends OS or just for leisure. My expectation is that that surge will be a sustained one simply because there's a huge number of cashed-up older travellers who feel like they have been robbed of 2 years of their life already, and who will have developed an attitude of "do it now while you can" because, as that song says "you don't know what you've got till it's gone". Many of those people will want to travel significantly more frequently and for longer than previously and once they're fully vaccinated they won't hesitate for one minute. My wife and I are definitely in that group.

I am in this group too and highly resentful that the draconian procedures have robbed me of a valuable 2 years when I don't have that many more active travel years left due to declining fitness and stamina from natural aging, bad back, worse eyesight, that sort of thing. But I have a strong immune system and would not have hesitated to go anywhere I really wanted to go because of Covid. I back myself there and I would have self quarantined at home before and after the trip to avoid other people.

I have enough points now for at least 3 overseas trips provided the rates are similar to what they were before. I would avoid the Dec/Jan rush if it happens but hoping to get out of here by Feb. To be honest, if I had known this was coming beforehand, I would have said "Screw the credit cards, live life to the fullest now" and spend the next 2 years of being trapped paying the bills. I was in Turkey, my favourite foreign country Feb 2020 and am still mad at myself for economising on food and accommodation because I expected to go back in Sept/Oct 2020.

i have been searching BNE-SAW on QF not seeing EK being offered only QR. I always like a stop in Dubai to refresh myself and go shopping before arriving in Turkey and I prefer the smaller SAW to the huge IST.

 

[BNEFlyer]

Darwin Paris return with Singapore Airlines (on their website) May 2022 is $1,280 return with taxes and baggage. Very cheap to me.

That's pre-Covid prices, would be great if that became the norm again. I'm looking at flights to MXP in May and it'll be at least $2500 from BNE at the moment.