Virgin Blue shares plunge

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As I see it the big problem for DJ is that they seem to be caught in no man's land.
They don't seem to be able to compete with the other carriers in terms of low cost airfares so they
will lose out on the budget traveller market but at the same time they don't have a good enough product to attract the corporate traveller.
At least if JQ started to suffer then Qantas always has the premium end of the market to help sustain them .
I think Virgin need to try and define where they want to be in the market and stay there and if that means cutting a lot of capacity for a couple of years whilst keeping fares low then so be it but they can't market themselves as a LCC if they are being consistently undercut by the likes of Jetstar and Tiger.

DJ need to decide what sort of airline they are. Sitting in the middle is neither here nor there.

They should bite the bullet and do something like they have done with VA - a full service airline with the upper end sold at more realistic prices. Get rid of their PE class and put in a form of J. They can keep Y as substantially frills free but allow pre-purchase o extras in much the same way as Air Canada.
 
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I agree is a problem - what in what way don't they have a good enough product?

Many think of product as the in air product - and personally I think that is adequate for a typical corporate traveller - OK you have to pay for food, but is that such a big deal? Maybe prepaying for meals (ala JQi) would help the corp traveller, but maye not. Perhaps the other exception is lack of widebody capacity MEL/SYD and east coast/PER. People tend to prefer widebodies to narrower planes - but then again the last three QF flights I've taken MEL/SYD have been on a 738 and two 734's.

In the wider sense though - the thing that DJ lacks is being part of a broader alliance. The frequent flyer program is not good enough for the wider corporate market. Sure it has status etc, but it lacks international acceptance/coverage. Until such time as the people who fly MEL/SYD every week for the whole year start getting benefits on their overseas trips, then they will will continue to fly QF. Even then, probably only a star alliance like arrangement or extending benefits with their current program partners (EK, MH) would work, but Skyteam may be a challenge due to a lack of broad Australian access to Asia/Europe. Secondly, lack of extended network to offer corporate deals for may also be an issue.

Anyway, I still think DJ will be around for a while yet. If they go under I think there will be a lot of airlines elsewhere in the world with stronger competition and tighter markets than Australia, that will go under first.


Yes, you do need to think of the product as much more than just the in air components. And yes, you also need to get the FF scheme right (which DJ have not due to lack of true alliance membership). And yes you have always to nail the corporate deals, etc.

More importantly, you have to recognise that what the business end of the market is actually buying is a sense of prestige, exclusivity, importance, in fact an all round feel good factor. It's the "W" factor from WP status.

There is no way you can justify spending say $1,350 to fly one CNS-SYD in J instead of $200 or less in Y, on adding up the cash value of the composite benefits (QC, check in line, meals, booze,etc).

The fact is that there is no real W factor in DJ's PE product. A little more convenience and comfort perhaps. True W factor is something else and persuading (maybe fooling) folk into thinking they are getting it is a black art that QF is still much better at than DJ (although it is great to see DJ open more biz lounges).

People fly business because it makes them feel special and important. Corporations will fly their staff business if they perceive a benefit in making those staff feel special and valued.

DJ just doesn't get it when it comes to the biz end of town. Unfortunately, QF, on the domestic front, is treading a fine line between trying to save money (reducing business end (and FF) benefits and service) and pissing people off thus undermining that brand factor elixir, potentially a very dangerous game (once you lose it, it becomes hard to regain it).

It is a real pity DJ haven't done a better job for the biz end of the market and given Qf some much needed competition.
 
More importantly, you have to recognise that what the business end of the market is actually buying is a sense of prestige, exclusivity, importance, in fact an all round feel good factor. It's the "W" factor from WP status.

.

i agree with you - this point should definetely not be underestimated. direct quote from my partners boss (CFO) 'there is no way you'd catch me flying in one of those flying billboards....' and later 'why would i punish my staff by making them fly virgin, i want to keep them happy'.

whilst this may be a bit extreme i find this general attitude quite common, when i'm travelling visiting customers etc and the fact that i am flying virgin on that occasion comes up, 9/10 it is followed by a sympathetic 'bummer, poor you' comment or a similarly framed joke.... personally its water off a ducks back as i actually fly both but i find the attitude very common....
 
The fact is that there is no real W factor in DJ's PE product. A little more convenience and comfort perhaps. True W factor is something else and persuading (maybe fooling) folk into thinking they are getting it is a black art that QF is still much better at than DJ (although it is great to see DJ open more biz lounges).

Yes agree with you on this one the PE has no W factor and is not going to woo the J class end of the market - but it is not designed too either. I think it's probably a manifestation of DJ itself - stuck in the middle between the two ends. Not Y (therefore it is struck out from many corp policies that only allow Y) and not J (therefore it is struck out from many corp/indiv travel policies that do allow J).

The other I agree with you on QF that contributes to the W factor - is the whole Neil Perry/Marc Newson/Morrissey thing - or what I call style over substance.

I was in the QP at SIN the other day (flying on MH - which is another appeal of QFF program, anytime access for WP's) and there is no doubt the lounge looks good, it looks cool, modern, like a trendy bar. But scratch beneath the surface, and it's no different to any other airline lounge (or in fact in terms of food offering compared to the EK & SQ J lounges at the same airport - inferior). But nevertheless the does have an appeal, whether its the W factor you refer to or more of a WOW factor not sure - but this whole style thing with QF does create a certain prestige factor - whilst we're on the W theme - like comparing the W hotel - a trendy 5 star hotel (QF) to a perfectly adequate but rather stodgy Holiday Inn (DJ) - to the low cost/downmarket Mercure or Ibis (JQ) and ultra budget Formulae One (Tiger).
 
whilst this may be a bit extreme i find this general attitude quite common, when i'm travelling visiting customers etc and the fact that i am flying virgin on that occasion comes up, 9/10 it is followed by a sympathetic 'bummer, poor you' comment or a similarly framed joke.... personally its water off a ducks back as i actually fly both but i find the attitude very common....

I think the problem is that it reflects peoples perceptions of what Virgin Blue was, rather than what it is now.

They do have a pretty tough task in positioning themselves against QF, which despite all their critics does provide, a good domestic service, compared to its peers in other countries.
 
it is followed by a sympathetic 'bummer, poor you' comment or a similarly framed joke....

Yeh funny you mention that, I too would get similar comments .... as I left my colleagues entering the standing room only QP in CBR before taking their 23E seat on the 17:20 to MEL having to wedge their carry-on into the floor space in front of their seat.... as I proceeded to a quite empty DJ lounge , before taking 5D on the 17:00 with loads of space in the overhead locker for my computer ...
 
Let me guess ... sell some assets and lease them back :rolleyes:

Could do, yes...

...I was even thinking simply buy an airline now worth well below $250 million and strip out the cash asset supposedly worth about double that...(OK some costs would be involved)...

..even better add your idea to the mix and go for the double, buy the airline, sell and lease back the assets and then grap ALL the cash...sayonara...
 
I think the problem is that it reflects peoples perceptions of what Virgin Blue was, rather than what it is now.
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yes totally agree with you but to add to this virgin certainly aren't helping themselves by still producing ads that fit more in the vein and tone of a LCC and doggedly holding on to certain very visible things (e.g. no food inclusions, garish looking planes etc) that scream LCC to the general public....

so i agree with ppl on here - they are really sending mixed messages about what they are and what they want to be, consequently people have no idea and just default to what they know and primarilly see - sometimes cheap and cheerful.

it is a bit sad because their product is ok, i just don't really understand their strategy.
 
This topic has recieved considerable press towards the end of the week - interesting that the shares have dropped in a way that warranted a please explain....


Virgin Blue can't explain share price crash

BUDGET airline Virgin Blue says it cannot explain the recent crash in its share price, other than reasons such as market volatility and the global financial crisis.
Responding to a query from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Virgin Blue said it had no reason to believe its operating profit for the year to June 30 would vary by more than 15 per cent from earlier guidance.


Virgin Blue can&squo;t explain share price crash | Herald Sun
 
Yeh funny you mention that, I too would get similar comments .... as I left my colleagues entering the standing room only QP in CBR before taking their 23E seat on the 17:20 to MEL having to wedge their carry-on into the floor space in front of their seat.... as I proceeded to a quite empty DJ lounge , before taking 5D on the 17:00 with loads of space in the overhead locker for my computer ...

Empty does not necessarily equate with good, particularly in the eyes of the provider.

Would you say "I flew with DJ today. The flight was great - just about empty"?
 
The share market is reactiing very positively to the passenger stats for January which have just been released.

Domestic Load Factor increased 1.2% with an increase in available seat kilometres of 7.1% and passenger increase of 7.4%

International Load Factor decreased 9.5% against an increase in available seat kilometres of 88.9% and passenger increase of 33.4%

The share price has reached 21c after been stuck around 18c lately.
 
The share market is reactiing very positively to the passenger stats for January which have just been released.

Domestic Load Factor increased 1.2% with an increase in available seat kilometres of 7.1% and passenger increase of 7.4%

International Load Factor decreased 9.5% against an increase in available seat kilometres of 88.9% and passenger increase of 33.4%

The share price has reached 21c after been stuck around 18c lately.
A couple of notable exlculsions from the monthly announcements.
First and most importantly what happened to yield....You can have 100% seatfactor and still lose millions(QF provide monthly YTD yield data) given comments from Brett Godfrey that FEB would be "very difficult" in recent times.
Also had a chuckle at ontime performance.
DJ have "Rounded up" their numbers from 85.3% to 86%,Still behind QF for the 4th month in a row and more than double the cancelled flights of QF/QFLink and JQ combined..They'll start rounding up 85.3% to 90% soon.
Like "Underlying Profit" when you lose over 100M..not very creditable &
obviously not to concerned with differentiating "spin" and actuals
 
Standby,

Give them some credit. You sound like a Qantas knocker having a go at Virgin Blue for entertainment :!:

A couple of notable exlculsions from the monthly announcements.
First and most importantly what happened to yield....You can have 100% seatfactor and still lose millions(QF provide monthly YTD yield data) given comments from Brett Godfrey that FEB would be "very difficult" in recent times.
A fair point.
Also had a chuckle at ontime performance.
DJ have "Rounded up" their numbers from 85.3% to 86%,Still behind QF for the 4th month in a row and more than double the cancelled flights of QF/QFLink and JQ combined..
Who cares about 1% here or there. It doesn't really fool anyone
They'll start rounding up 85.3% to 90% soon.
Do you really think so :?: You're not exagerating just a tiny bit here are you :?:
Like "Underlying Profit" when you lose over 100M..not very creditable &
obviously not to concerned with differentiating "spin" and actuals
I don't agree with you here.
 
Fair comment about yield however neither DJ or QF provide yield figures in the monthly traffic stats, that isn't announced until the half yearly results are published.

This is the first time that DJ have listed domestic and international as seperate figures which I think is a good thing as they are two quite different markets. Hopefully they will also list VA stats as a seperate section too.

Peter
 
Give them some credit. You sound like a Qantas knocker having a go at Virgin Blue for entertainment:!:

straitman, I agree with you there. At least we do have crazydave here enlightening us......don't see any obvious QF representative here enlightening us. My 2c worth.

cheers,

Ric
 
Add RickyRiccardo to that, and also the fact that Virgin Blue (Velocity) have had a representative at both of the AFF meets that have been held.
 
don't see any obvious QF representative here enlightening us.

Don't worry - they are here reading various threads and taking notes... Information does get back to those who care sometimes, but I suggest the fastest way to HQ is to post a thread called "Qantas accidentally gave me a million free points". :)
 
And I won't forget Miss V over on ski.com.au. Quite a few waited and them grabbed the Vaustralia promo fare a(nd speak highly of Vaustralia's ethical handling of the delays caused by the Boeing strike).
 
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