Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Flying mermaid]

ooh careful now, you will be flamed for saying that, if my experience is anything to go by - even though it is true enough IMO!

Oh really? But anyone who lives in Canberra knows there are numerous unpaid traffic offences, not to mention dog attacks

Post automatically merged: Jun 4, 2021

That reminds me of some American Trump supporter interviewed on TV by a roving reporter explaining why Covid 19 was a hoax. He said that it was obvious as they never made any fuss about Covids 1 to 18!

I think his daughter said something similar - not that it was a hoax but about Covids 1 to 18.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Graphic update..

 

[Seat0B]

Oh really? But anyone who lives in Canberra knows there are numerous unpaid traffic offences, not to mention dog attacks

Yep, borderline trolled by a member I won’t name for suggesting that diplomats should have to do the same hotel quarantine as us mere mortals.

 

[Seat0B]

Graphic update..

View attachment 249687

Are you doing this graphic yourself @lovetravellingoz? I find it really helpful to make sense of the Melbourne outbreaks, so thanks for posting, and double thanks if you are creating and updating yourself.

 

[RooFlyer]

Graphic update

And what on earth does that mean here?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Are you doing this graphic yourself @lovetravellingoz? I find it really helpful to make sense of the Melbourne outbreaks, so thanks for posting, and double thanks if you are creating and updating yourself.

No it is not my work.

The credit to the creator of the graphic is at the bottom left = dbRaevn

I find it useful too, which is why I share it on here.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And what on earth does that mean here?

Well it was not a Content Warning Though perhaps it could be.



It means it is an update of the graphic of the Victorian Outbreak, including the various clusters, that I have been posting in this thread on virus spread. With changes in data such as new cases, cases that are found to have been false positives, new links etc it gets updated.

For example the West Melbourne cluster with the Delta Variant is now included.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

According to PANGO lineages the Delta variant has been sequenced 108 times in Australia to date. (Note there may be some lag in the data)

And 11 times in New Zealand.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Below are some salient snippets of information from msn news on the West Melbourne Cluster (Jervis Bay) = Delta Variant.
An additional child has been reported as being likely to test positive with the Delta Variant.

The West Melbourne family visited Jervis Bay about two weeks ago, from May 19 to 24. Their son and daughter attended school from May 25 to 27, before Melbourne went into lockdown, testing positive for coronavirus on Tuesday.​

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The new cluster has been linked back to a West Melbourne family of four who had recently returned from holidaying in Jervis Bay in NSW and has since spread to two adults and a grade 5 pupil of another family, whose children attend the same North Melbourne Primary School.​

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Their working theory is that the virus was transmitted in the school's year 5 classroom between two children. The first grade 5 student infected was at school for up to three days while infectious.​

A second family was tested on Thursday after being asked to isolate and two adults and a child emerged as new cases on Friday. A second child also returned an indeterminate result, but is likely to test positive.​

A North Melbourne Primary School father who has sons in grade 3 and 5 said parents were alarmed by reports the new variant was more infectious.​

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"You just have to hope you're that majority who haven't contracted it and come out of the other side OK," he said.​

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His family are undertaking two weeks of quarantine as their son in grade 5 is considered a close contact of the infected pupils. The family have all tested negative.​

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He said the school had many shared-learning areas and there was mingling between year levels, which had worried parents.​

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"My son is in year 5 and it's kind of a flexible area which is open learning so if it was a highly contagious spread it could go very quickly through that area," he said.​

Note: One reason why a test may be indeterminate is that they are in the very early stages and their viral load is very low. If so, testing again after an interval will if they are infected allow the virus time to have multiply and this will then achieve a positive test result.

and

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More than 300 primary close contacts have been identified in the West Melbourne outbreak. So far, about 70 per cent have tested negative.​

and

Paediatrician and researcher at Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Margie Danchin, who is investigating COVID-19 transmission in Australian schools, led a team screening casual contacts at North Melbourne Primary School at the weekend to determine how far the virus had spread.​

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"The families involved in this outbreak are understandably really struggling," she said. "I don't think the community really understands just how hard it is for families with a positive child, who feel like they have been responsible for all of this testing and the school shutting down."​

New Delta variant outbreak dashes hope of lockdown reprieve

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Extract from the VicDHHS Daily Media release
4 June 2021

Victoria was notified of six new cases of coronavirus yesterday.
Four are locally acquired cases linked to the current outbreak. Two are cases acquired overseas in returned international travellers in hotel quarantine.

There were three COVID-19 cases in hospital in Victoria yesterday.

There are 72 active cases in Victoria, 64 are locally acquired and eight are overseas acquired cases.

Update: Outbreaks​

The four new cases of locally acquired COVID-19 include three family members (two parents and a child) linked to the current West Melbourne outbreak.

The fourth new case diagnosed yesterday is a primary close contact of an existing positive COVID-19 case who was isolating during their infectious period.

Genomic sequencing results received last night for two of the original West Melbourne cases, who travelled to Jervis Bay, identified a new variant of COVID-19 that is unrelated to all other cases seen so far in the current Victorian outbreak.

This new Delta variant is of significant concern. Victorian public health officials are working closely with their counterparts in New South Wales, the ACT and the Commonwealth Government to trace back where this new variant may have been acquired.

All primary close contacts of those two original cases are being followed up by contact tracers to investigate the possible source of this new variant.

The number of positive cases linked to the West Melbourne outbreak is now seven.

Intense contact tracing efforts have identified more than 300 primary close contacts in the West Melbourne outbreak that started with cases linked to the North Melbourne Primary School. All are isolating and are being tested as a priority.
So far, around 70 per cent of those primary close contacts have tested negative with other results pending.

Across the State, public health teams have identified more than 6000 primary close contacts linked to the current outbreak with 90 per cent having returned negative test results.

A program of re-testing of staff and residents at the Arcare Maidstone and BlueCross Sunshine aged care facilities is continuing. There have been no additional cases linked to aged care in Victoria and public health actions around four additional aged care homes have been stood down following negative test results for staff and residents.

The are more than 350 public exposure sites identified and published at Case alerts - public exposure sites.
The Department also manages a number of exposure sites which it doesn’t publish online, particularly if these sites represent lower-risk exposures, or if they have comprehensive record keeping and contact tracing measures in place, or if they identify small, private locations.
Exposure sites are regularly reviewed based on intelligence and evidence, following case interviews.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Rafael Epstein initially indicating that he was one of today's 5 cases, before correcting his typo! The "I'm" should not have been in his first tweet.

He has indicated that all 5 cases were isolating while awaiting their results (though not how long they were in isolation).

 

[justinbrett]

I think the link to NSW is a stretch at best. There's been a large testing blitz on the south coast with zero cases. It's also suspicious the genomic testing took so long and it still hasn't linked it to a known traveller.

Seems more plausible to blame the state on its 4th lockdown.

 

[jakeseven7]

Rafael Epstein initially indicating that he was one of today's 5 cases, before correcting his typo! The "I'm" should not have been in his first tweet.

He has indicated that all 5 cases were isolating while awaiting their results (though not how long they were in isolation).


View attachment 249721

That’s good news all 5 were already in isolation

 

[lovetravellingoz]

. It's also suspicious the genomic testing took so long and it still hasn't linked it to a known traveller.

I doubt The Doherty Institute would go along with any "dodgey" business. Indeed, they would not.

They do all the sequencing in Victoria. This includes publicly publishing it regularly, and it shares all of the data worldwide.


Report date: 21 May 2021

Report period (4 weeks): 20 April 2021 – 17 May 2021

Published date: 4 June 2021

The public health genomic sequencing laboratory at the Doherty Institute (the Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory) aims to perform genome sequencing of all COVID-19 cases in Victoria. Identifying genomic clusters and linking this information with epidemiological data captured by the Department of Health (DH) can help identify outbreaks, potential sources of infection, and determine which people are more likely to have transmitted the virus to each other. Sharing the data internationally can help understand the evolution of the virus globally.

Reports & Publications | Doherty Website

Your default description here

www.doherty.edu.au

ie See below for each and every genomic sequence.





As to known travellers.

1/ Genomic sequencing does not always work for all cases for a number of reasons. In particular a live virus may not be able to be grown

2/ Some outbreaks such as Avalon were probably due to not testing everyone that was likely to be a carrier. ie aircrew. We also know that not all diplomats get tested, and so again no genomic sequencing..


If there was any delay in publicly reporting it, it may well be as a different result (ie strain) was obtained that it was rerun to verify it was correct.

 

[justinbrett]

I doubt The Doherty Institute would go along with any "dodgey" business. Indeed, they would not.

They do all the sequencing in Victoria. This includes publicly publishing it regularly, and it shares all of the data worldwide.


Report date: 21 May 2021

Report period (4 weeks): 20 April 2021 – 17 May 2021

Published date: 4 June 2021

The public health genomic sequencing laboratory at the Doherty Institute (the Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory) aims to perform genome sequencing of all COVID-19 cases in Victoria. Identifying genomic clusters and linking this information with epidemiological data captured by the Department of Health (DH) can help identify outbreaks, potential sources of infection, and determine which people are more likely to have transmitted the virus to each other. Sharing the data internationally can help understand the evolution of the virus globally.

Reports & Publications | Doherty Website

Your default description here

www.doherty.edu.au

ie See below for each and every genomic sequence.

View attachment 249723



As to known travellers.

1/ Genomic sequencing does not always work for all cases for a number of reasons. In particular a live virus may not be able to be grown

2/ Some outbreaks such as Avalon were probably due to not testing everyone that was likely to be a carrier. ie aircrew. We also know that not all diplomats get tested, and so again no genomic sequencing..


If there was any delay in publicly reporting it, it may well be as a different result (ie strain) was obtained that it was rerun to verify it was correct.

It's still infinitely more plausible this came from VIC and not NSW/ACT.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It would be interesting to know what strain the Taiwanese boy had (ie was it Kappa or Delta or ?), and whether he was part of a diplomatic family or not.

For a known positive case there seems to be an unusual absence of information.

The last similar case I can recall was a child that flew to Israel and tested positive there. In that can exposure sites were listed.

Note he may have been infected in transit, though the timelines do seem to suggest that he was infected in Australia.

 

[suze2000]

I REALLY don't understand why diplomats are exempt from HQ - or even getting tested. Makes no sense if we are aiming for covid-zero.

 

[justinbrett]

I REALLY don't understand why diplomats are exempt from HQ - or even getting tested. Makes no sense if we are aiming for covid-zero.

I mean, they can commit murder and we can't arrest them for that....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser.

5 cases.

3 of 5 are primary contacts of known cases. Indeterminate case of the additional child now confirmed from West Melbourne Cluster as a postive. Plus a colleague of worker from West Melbourne Cluster.

Another is a household contact of the first worker who tested positive at the Arcare Maidstone aged care centre.