Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

I've no doubt super spreaders exist. They have done since the start of the pandemic. However to pretend this is all due to a scary new variant is, to me, insulting to the public and just designed to instill fear. For example the South Korean super spreaders very early in the piece.

An analysis of three Covid-19 outbreaks: how they happened and how they can be avoided

An office, a restaurant and a bus were the settings for multiple infections that have been studied in detail by health authorities. Their conclusions offer valuable lessons for the deescalation process

english.elpais.com

No Indian/Delta/Gamma/whatever variant there...

It's a maths thing. A variant can be 20 % more contagious and that's very serious if you're talking multiple generations but at the very low levels Australia has, it doesn't make a huge difference. I'm of the opinion that the weather counts for a lot more.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think you misinterpreted my post. I did not claim at all that superspreading is new and only in the latest Melbourne outbreak.

I wasn't accusing you of anything of the sort.

And with the Kappa the key difference too seems to be a number of people (not all) have passed on the virus in only a day.

But claims like this are consistent with the fact that super spreaders have existed throughout the pandemic. Scare mongering new variants has in this country, so far, done nothing but stoke fear and lead to economic and financial pain.

I am no scientist hence why I earlier stated the hope that someone ask Brett Sutton today for a scientific explanation as to how and why they believe fleeting transmission is occurring, such that you can catch COVID from walking down the street next to a positive case. That was a clear hypothesis put forward yesterday, as Weimar asked for anyone who was shopping/in Bay St and Clarendon St to come forward for a test.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I wasn't accusing you of anything of the sort.



But claims like this are consistent with the fact that super spreaders have existed throughout the pandemic.

I am no scientist hence why I earlier stated the hope that someone ask Brett Sutton today for a scientific explanation as to how and why they believe fleeting transmission is occurring, such that you can catch COVID from walking down the street next to a positive case. That was a clear hypothesis put forward yesterday, as Weimar asked for anyone who was shopping/in Bay St and Clarendon St to come forward for a test.

Superspreading is not new.

But if the variant is indeed more contagious, then superspreaders in this outbreak will more easily pass it on. So superspreading not new, but currently it has been claimed that Kappa is more contagious , and in Melbourne has had in some cases one day transmission (May or may not be new as contact tracing in places like India would be virtually not occurring). Certainly this new variant has ripped through India much more dramatically than the previous variants ever did.

If you have examples of past variants doing it in a day please share. Two posters said it happened in NSW, but on ckecking I could only find one 2 day transmission at Crossroads (the pubworker) , and a transmission over 6 days from transport worker to colleague to BWS person. I may have missed them of course.

 

[Must...Fly!]

If you have examples of past variants doing it in a day please share.

Since the very start of this pandemic, We have known the incubation period is a bell curve ranging from anywhere between 1-21 days, most likely falling between 5-7 days. Of course, it's a bell curve, so there are outliers at either end as we have seen throughout the entirety of the past 12+ months.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on the testing, with 327,404 tests done in the last week that is the most tests in any jurisdiction in Australia since the the pandemic started, and in terms of tests/100,000 population it is averaging 708 tests /100,000 which is considerably higher than any jurisdiction has done before.

Not at all helpful are those that choose to not get tested when symptomatic, and especially those who have been symptomatic for long periods.

 

[bcworld]

Scare mongering new variants has in this country, so far, done nothing but stoke fear and lead to economic and financial pain.

I think its a bit easy to just classify everything as scare mongering, especially with the benefit of hinsdight. Clearly there is something to be concerned about re the variants Kappa and Delta...something caused the explosion of cases in India. Something caused Singapore and Taiwan to get caught out after they looked solid. Same with the Alpha variant...this thread is full of cynicism because on the occasion it breached out of HQ it didn't lead to a mass outbreak - well there is evidence that categorically it's nothing apparently...yet something caused the huge increase in cases and deaths in the UK late last year.

 

[Pushka]

Seems that there may have been some recent SEO upgrades that link certain words to existing AFF articles - Mod team looking into. Agree that would be a bit disconcerting for an auto correct function to guess words other than what you want to type.

It was actually a good thing in another post when I was referencing the Border Exemptions and it made me look very clever. And then a few minutes later it changed back. In the most recent post it did end up looking a bit silly but maybe people are trying to exit Collingwood from Australia.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Since the very start of this pandemic, We have known the incubation period is a bell curve ranging from anywhere between 1-21 days, most likely falling between 5-7 days. Of course, it's a bell curve, so there are outliers at either end as we have seen throughout the entirety of the past 12+ months.

However transmission if it occurs, occurs in the Infectious Period.

The Incubation Period and the Infectious Period are not the same thing..

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person.​

One can test positive, but early on not yet be contagious.

 

[jase05]

Seems like 4 of the 6 in Victoria are all from the same family. The bloke that travelled to NSW and his wife and kids all positive.
7 day extension of Melbourne lockdown by the sounds of it too

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From CH10.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Seems like 4 of the 6 in Victoria are all from the same family. The bloke that travelled to NSW and his wife and kids all positive.

 

[Lynda2475]

So interesting that the health advice in WA is to not move positive patients whereas in every other jurisdiction, positives are moved into dedicated premises (medi-hotel or hospital) for positives.

From ABC Blog:

Mr McGowan said it was not an option to move people out of a room if they tested positive.

"There is a whole range of knock-on effects. The written advice we have is you do not move people in these circumstances.

Obviously, I queried that at lengthbecause it does not accord with what you might think but that is the advice we get from all our health professionals.

"It is better to leave a person next to a single positive case rather than move them."


I'm guessing the person next door who was subsequently infected because the positive wasn't moved would strongly disagree.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I must admit when the policy was first introduced it did strike me as odd, because you are exposing more people and areas to the virus by moving them. However that doesn't really factor in to account the reality of what we have seen

 

[Lynda2475]

ABC Blog reports another aged care case:

The ABC understands a second resident has tested positive for coronavirus at Arcare’s aged care facility in Maidstone, in Melbourne’s west.

A worker tested positive to COVID-19 on Sunday, sending the home into lockdown.

On Monday, another resident, the son of the worker and a second worker tested positive.

The ABC understands this latest case is a primary close contact of the first resident who tested positive.

 

[jase05]

ABC Blog reports another aged care case:

The ABC understands a second resident has tested positive for coronavirus at Arcare’s aged care facility in Maidstone, in Melbourne’s west.

A worker tested positive to COVID-19 on Sunday, sending the home into lockdown.

On Monday, another resident, the son of the worker and a second worker tested positive.

The ABC understands this latest case is a primary close contact of the first resident who tested positive.

Apparently has had both doses

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Further details on the second resident:

Arcare confirmed the second resident to test positive as an 89-year-old, the cousin of the first resident and living in an adjacent room.​

​

"They will be transferred to hospital for public health reasons, coordinated by the Victorian Department of Health," Arcare CEO Colin Singh said in a statement.​

Second Arcare Maidstone resident tests positive to COVID-19

A second resident of Arcare's aged care facility in Maidstone, in Melbourne's west, tests positive for coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Extract from the daily DHHS Media release
2 June 2021

Victoria was notified of six new cases of coronavirus yesterday.​

All are locally acquired cases linked to the current outbreak.​

There were two COVID-19 cases in hospital in Victoria yesterday.​

In total, there are 60 cases linked to the current outbreak.​

The total number of confirmed cases in Victoria since the beginning of the pandemic is 20,614. One overseas acquired case was reclassified.​

Extension of restrictions​

The Victorian Government has announced that restrictions will be extended from 11.59pm Thursday 3 June.​

See the Statement from the Acting Premier for more information.​

Update: Outbreaks​

Four of the new cases belong to members of a family who travelled to Jervis Bay while one of the cases was infectious. The acquisition source is under investigation.​

​

A number of new exposure sites linked to the cases have been listed in Melbourne, regional Victoria and NSW.​

One case is linked to the Port Melbourne outbreak and one case is linked to the Brighton Beach Hotel.​

​

Public Health teams have identified over 5200 Primary Close Contacts linked to the outbreak.​

77.8 per cent have so far returned negative results.​

​

There are 189 primary close contacts linked to a network of community grocery stores and retail outlets in the Northern Suburbs, and in Dandenong, with 169 negative results received so far.​

​

Of seven schools and higher education settings that have also been linked to positive cases, 434 primary close contacts are identified and over 300 negative results received.​

​

There are over 350 exposure sites, including 152 Tier one sites, published at Case alerts - public exposure sites. A number are in regional Victoria.​

The Department also manages a number of exposure sites which it doesn’t publish online, particularly if these sites represent lower-risk exposures, or if they have comprehensive record keeping and contact tracing measures in place, or if they identify small, private locations.​

Exposure sites are regularly reviewed based on intelligence and evidence, following case interviews.​

Viral fragments detected in wastewater catchments​

Viral fragments have been recently detected in wastewater samples taken from the following sewer catchments:​

• Bendigo between 27-31 May
• Mornington Peninsula between Safety Beach and Portsea between 27-28 May

While these unexpected detections may be due to someone who has had COVID-19 that is no longer infectious it is also possible that it is due to an active but undiagnosed infectious case.​

​

People who live in, or have visited these areas, who have, or develop COVID symptoms, are strongly encouraged to get tested and help keep Victoria communities COVID free.​

​

More detailed information is available at Wastewater testing.​

 

[Must...Fly!]

Oh my God. We are stuffed. This person is de-facto in charge of an entire state.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399966204920406017

 

[Astro]

Isn't that absolutly ridiculous?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Isn't that absolutly ridiculous?

Of course it is.

Anyone would think they're lepers (well it's Collingwood so anything is possible).

That she and her department are allowing in to the state!!!!!