Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jb747]

Until the 12th of never….

 

[hb13]

That's not what I said but maybe I could have been clearer. We need to vax and open up as quickly as possible. That said the Australian economy has had a far better time of it (on the macro level) than many if not most economies in the rest of the world. Yes on the micro level there are people who have had livelihoods destroyed by COVID but is you look at how badly the UK is doing economically, how bad the US was doing even earlier this year and how badly Japan is doing right now; I'd pick the Covid-0 short term strategy every time; reducing or eliminating excess death over money, every single time. And on aggregate we did well economically as well.

Covid-0 was a good short term strategy but a poor long term one. We saved a lot of lives when there was little effective treatment and no vaccines. Now it's time to vax and open up.

So you're saying what I said, but you termed what I said as "not even remotely true"? If you look at previous posts, I have said, and will always say Australia dealt with this strategy much, much, much better than pretty much everyone else apart from NZ in 2020. But that was last year.

The Aussie government, at the start of this year, when the EU/UK/US were already vaccinating, sat back arrogantly and said "we don't have any issues". The vaccination program as it is now, is an absolute shambles - and until people get vaccinated, Australians will be forever in fear of a handful of cases shutting down the state - as we have seen many times during "Covid-0".

Aiming to eliminate Covid-0 was a good strategy last year. As anyone can see, you cannot truly eliminate Covid. The economy looks good now, but that is fools gold. The amount of money borrowed needs to be repaid somehow, and that'll occur through taxes. Secondly, the people still being supported now in aviation by job-keeper - what will they do when those jobs don't actually exist anymore? The tourism industry cannot stay alive on NZ tourists alone. Every day the borders are closed, more businesses will shut down because they can't survive. International students are going elsewhere. Finally, inflation is creeping up in Australia - how will that affect the population, especially when taxes have to increase in the next few years?

FYI - coal and iron ore cannot support Australia forever, especially when the second you leave Australia, you see people trying to minimise the use of coal and iron ore.

 

[drron]

In the US,EU and UK in December 2020 there was a real Covid Emergency.They are also 3 of the 5 biggest producers of vaccines in the world along with China and India.There was a compelling reason for their haste with vaccination.
Then you praise NZ as being better in 2020.But in 2021 their vaccine rollout is slower than Australias and for pretty much the same reason.They bet on just Pfizer and supply has fallen well below expected levels.

Although coal use will drop it is going to be many years before it disappears.But iron ore use will not drop.Think of all the steel used for the production of wind turbines.Urging a greater uptake of EVs means even more going to be used.

The problem with iron ore is that China is actively supporting alternative supplies to Australia with major projects in Africa.

 

[OZDUCK]

The price of Iron Ore could also suffer a major drop if Brazil ever gets their mines back into something like normal operation. But based on the chaos there that seems to be a fair way off.

 

[ayushamity]

So my fiancés marriage visa got approved today (haven't seen her since Feb 2020) and she has until 27 may 2022 to come to Australia

As shocking as it is to say, 27 may 2022 does not sound achievable because of our neurotic government.

 

[mviy]

Hopefully they will see some sense and extend such visas if the border opening is delayed. We will have to see what they decide.

 

[Seat0B]

Until the 12th of never….

Yes I totally agree - post #5941 refers! And nothing has changed my mind on that very sad prediction since I made it

 

[Seat0B]

So my fiancés marriage visa got approved today (haven't seen her since Feb 2020) and she has until 27 may 2022 to come to Australia

As shocking as it is to say, 27 may 2022 does not sound achievable because of our neurotic government.

Congratulations and I really hope she gets here so you can finally start your lives together.

 

[hb13]

So my fiancés marriage visa got approved today (haven't seen her since Feb 2020) and she has until 27 may 2022 to come to Australia

As shocking as it is to say, 27 may 2022 does not sound achievable because of our neurotic government.

Best of luck. Let's hope she can make it. This government really needs to open its eyes to the mental suffering of so many of us separated from family. It's just pathetic.

 

[burmans]

So you're saying what I said, but you termed what I said as "not even remotely true"? If you look at previous posts, I have said, and will always say Australia dealt with this strategy much, much, much better than pretty much everyone else apart from NZ in 2020. But that was last year.

The Aussie government, at the start of this year, when the EU/UK/US were already vaccinating, sat back arrogantly and said "we don't have any issues". The vaccination program as it is now, is an absolute shambles - and until people get vaccinated, Australians will be forever in fear of a handful of cases shutting down the state - as we have seen many times during "Covid-0".

Aiming to eliminate Covid-0 was a good strategy last year.

Said this before but I’ll say it again, we’ve won the battle but we assumed that’s it. Countries like the US and the UK may have lost the battle but look like they will win the war well before we do.

Enough with the self congratulations, what’s the exit strategy? At the moment the answer is sadly missing to what is quite a simple question.

 

[Flashback]

Said this before but I’ll say it again, we’ve won the battle but we assumed that’s it. Countries like the US and the UK may have lost the battle but look like they will win the war well before we do.

Enough with the self congratulations, what’s the exit strategy? At the moment the answer is sadly missing to what is quite a simple question.

A slight chuckle that the 2 people that hit agree on your post are in the UK ...

 

[OATEK]

It still seems to me that the election date is the first crucial indicator. Until then I suspect it is all smoke and mirrors.

 

[ayushamity]

It still seems to me that the election date is the first crucial indicator. Until then I suspect it is all smoke and mirrors.

Unfortunately, the election is 18 May 2022 so a year away

 

[Pushka]

Unfortunately, the election is 18 May 2022 so a year away

It can be earlier than that. It isn't like state elections.

 

[ayushamity]

It can be earlier than that. It isn't like state elections.

Why would he want it any earlier ? He is basking in the support for keeping borders closed and saving Australia from covid and its in his best interest to serve out the term fully

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Why would he want it any earlier ? He is basking in the support for keeping borders closed and saving Australia from covid and its in his best interest to serve out the term fully

because 6 months from now the rest of the world is going to be open and living like a free society and he needs to lock in another 3 years before we get humiliated as terrified hermits on the global scale

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It can be earlier than that. It isn't like state elections.

The tide seems to be turning, at least in Victoria. This latest lockdown isn't seen as the fault of the Vic government, but rather the Cth.

If this gathers momentum it may spur changes regarding border movements: home Q for those vaccinated, and freeing up more space for those not.

 

[Must...Fly!]

If this gathers momentum it may spur changes regarding border movements: home Q for those vaccinated, and freeing up more space for those not.

Perhaps, but until we have some certainty and agreement among all states as to what level of transmission is considered acceptable, then this is pie in the sky stuff. It may well require keeping a careful eye on the rest of the world (or at least Europe & North America) opening before our politicians even start to have the discussion.

 

[hb13]

As much as I hate to say it, I don't see a single thing changing on borders before the end of 2022. As pessimistic as that may sound, nothing gives me even the slightest bit of confidence that anything will change - except for border restrictions getting stricter - if that is even possible.

The election is May 2022, and it is safe to say nothing will change before this - it is pretty clear strict border controls are very popular. After the elections, assuming the LIBS get back in, it will take months to make a plan and implement it.

 

[OATEK]

The tide seems to be turning, at least in Victoria. This latest lockdown isn't seen as the fault of the Vic government, but rather the Cth.

If this gathers momentum it may spur changes regarding border movements: home Q for those vaccinated, and freeing up more space for those not.

But given there were no real adverse consequences when many saw earlier lockdowns being the fault of Vic govt (yes, mostly outside Vic) I am not sure some seeing that the Feds caused this one really changes anything.